I wonder if hindsight bias is related to overfitting?
The first story I saw on the main page was "The Metropolitan Man".
I thought "OK, I'll give it 10 minutes, see how far it can get".
After 1,5 minute the story displayed a total lack of understanding of middle-school level physics.
Superman prevented an accident by flying into the space between two cars and stopping them with his hands. However, a deceleration on the distance equal to the length of one human arm, is no less lethal than over the (approximately equal) length of the average crumple zone.
I mean, I don't want to poop on the party, but seriously?
Superman does that kind of nonsense in the comic books all the time...
Hmmm... Easier to find stories than on r/rational, I'll give it that...
You don't know whether you're alone.
Doesn't matter - I'll still end up doing it, regardless of what algorithm I try to implement!
Goodhart's law. People will start optimizing to look good to the algorithms and you'll lose something along the way. Still not necessarily worse than what we have now though.
I choose torture if and only if I'm alone. Otherwise the predictor would be wrong, contrary to the assumptions of the hypothetical. But I'd rather be in the world where dust specks gets chosen.
I use Volume Locker to keep myself from changing volume by accidentally pressing buttons when picking up my phone.
Thanks, that seems to be working for now...
How long did you try? It took me like 2 weeks to teach my nephews to do what I said in a similar case (keeping tv turned down instead of tablet). You need the parents cooperation too.
It's sometimes difficult to take the tablet away immediately. A typical scenario is that my girlfriend and I are in the front seat of the car while the Small Child sits in a booster seat in the back and wants to use the tablet; she'll fight to keep it and it's hard to reach around the chair to take it out of her hand. Also there's the fact that the Small Child consistently breaks promises - she'll agree not to make it loud to get the tablet back, but immediately turn up the volume anyway when I give it to her. A technical solution is easier than playing dog trainer to a child with a developmental disability...
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Why do you wonder that? If you care to elaborate.
Overfitting is a problem of "thinking" the data given is more strongly determined than it is. Hindsight bias seems similar - we feel that things couldn't have turned out other than the way they actually did.