Comment author: theden 08 January 2015 11:11:49PM 2 points [-]

There seems a tacit assumption here that all people who read the bible believe it is to be taken literally. Now I'm not stating my own religious views or lack thereof here, but it seems to me that this "talking snake" approach fails on entirely other grounds... namely, that it assumes that the "talking snake" story is not an allegory or metaphor. These are very old stories, told in a very poetic voice, and to take them literally is certainly absurd... It seems to me that Maher joins the absurdity by assuming the premise that "all things in the bible are to be taken literally." This is NOT a premise believed by all or even most Christians. Many interpret the bible and it's stories in an attempt to glean the meanings of those stories. Naturally there are ignorami who DO believe that the bible is to be taken literally. To extrapolate their beliefs to all Christians is to perpetrate the most basic of logical mistakes: if A is B, and A is C, then all B's are C. (e.g., If Bob is a Christian, and Bob believes in talking snakes, then all Christians believe in talking snakes.)

Comment author: CynicalOptimist 05 May 2016 09:41:39PM *  3 points [-]

I think this just underscores the original post's point.

The lesson here isn't that Christians are probably right or that Christians are probably wrong. The lesson here is that you can go very wrong by relying on the absurdity heuristic. And that that's true even when the claim seems really absurd.

Let's take a hypothetical atheist who really does think that all Christians believe in the literal word of the Bible. This atheist might reject the whole of Christianity because of the absurdity of talking snakes. Having rejected the entire school of thought that all of Christianity represents, he never has the opportunity to find out that he was wrong (about all Christians taking the Bible literally). Therefore be never realises that he had flawed reasons for rejecting religion.

The woman in the story has a similarly inaccurate understanding of what (many) evolutionists believe. The flawed understanding is part of the issue.

This bias applies to people who reject an idea on the grounds that it seems absurd, but their assessment of 'absurdity' is based on their limited, probably inaccurate, understanding of the topic.

Comment author: Furcas 13 March 2009 09:21:09PM *  12 points [-]

From what I've seen, most theologians don't even believe that they know how to defend what they believe. The most common sentiment among them seems to be that the part of theology that seeks to demonstrate the existence of God is the crudest and least interesting part. Those theologians who do bother to try and support their belief with arguments, like Swinburne and Plantinga, rarely agree with one another.

In any case, comparing theologians to physicists as you do is silly. Physicists are the experts of physics because they know about the most accurate theories and the evidence that supports them. What do theologians know about? The evidence for the existence of God? Most of them admit there isn't any. The most accurate version of Christianity? There's no way to judge accuracy without evidence.

Some people who call themselves theologians may be experts on the history of Christianity, and a precious few might even be experts on what Christians actually believe these days, but none of them are experts about the actual claims of Christianity: That God loves us, that he sent his son to Earth, that he's got a blissful afterlife set up for good people, and so forth. Without evidence to know about, theologians have no more expertise on this subject than average Christians. Therefore, the theologian's version of Christianity is no more valid than the average Christian's version of it, and is no more deserving of our attention. In fact, because theologians represent such a tiny fraction of Christians, it deserves less.

Comment author: CynicalOptimist 05 May 2016 09:35:57PM *  2 points [-]

I think you might be deflecting the main point here. Possibly without realising it.

You have a better opportunity to practice your skills as a rationalist if you respond to the [least convenient] (http://tinyurl.com/LWleastconvenient) possible interpretation of this comment.

I would propose that the "experts" being referred to are experts in debating the existence of God. ie of all the arguments that have ever been put forward for the existence of God, these are the people who know the most compelling ones. The most rationally compelling, logically coherent arguments.

Perhaps you mean to say that no such people exist, or no such arguments exist. It is possible that that's true. But it is almost certain that having brief conversations with garden-variety theists, won't expose us to these arguments.

If you happen to have gone looking for these arguments, with an open mind and a willingness to genuinely consider their merits, and you remain unconvinced, then that's fine. I'm pretty sure that if I were to go looking for the most compelling arguments, with a genuinely open mind, i would remain unconvinced too. But i think it's important to acknowledge that I haven't actually done so. I haven't done the research and I haven't given myself the best possible opportunity to change my mind. - There were other things that I was more interested in doing.

For those of us who haven't heard the most compelling arguments: I honestly think that's fine. But i think the original poster (and Psycho) are describing an important bias, that we should be aware of and careful about in our own thinking: the tendency to reason as if we have already seen the most compelling evidence for something, even when there's no reason to believe that you have.

When you realise that you've not yet seen the most convincing version of an argument, there's no reason to raise your probability estimates. But you also shouldn't lower them in the same way that you would if you were sure you'd seen all the evidence that there was.

Comment author: Swimmy 13 March 2009 06:00:49AM 17 points [-]

Almost every possible non-absurd claim is also false. I think this is Occam's Razor, not the absurdity heuristic, in effect and working great.

Comment author: CynicalOptimist 05 May 2016 08:52:05PM 1 point [-]

Exactly!

To demonstrate in this way that the absurdity heuristic is useful, you would have to claim something like:

The ratio of false absurd claims (that you are likely to encounter) to true absurd claims (that you are likely to encounter) is much higher than the ratio of false non-absurd claims (that you are likely to encounter) to true non-absurd claims (that you are likely to encounter).

EDIT wow. I'm the person who wrote that, and i still find it hard to read it. This is one of the reasons why rationality is hard. Even when you have a good intuition for the concepts, it's still hard to express the ideas in a concrete way.

Comment author: Valentina_Poletti 31 July 2008 09:44:12AM -2 points [-]

Huhm, thanks Eliezer, now I start seeing your point. It's amazing that you can imagine a mind that doens't run on emotional architectures like our own. I honestly can't. No matter how hard I try I keep being biased by my own humanity. And yet I've lived in very different cultures and in various extremes of human nature.

Doug S.: I don't agree, I found some autistic people to be far more 'human' (or should I say humane) than the average person. If you look for an example of a non-human human, how about Hitler? Serial killers? Rapitsts? They obviously lack some basic human(e) emotions.

Comment author: CynicalOptimist 25 April 2016 11:07:00AM 0 points [-]

I agree with AlexanderRM.

You stated that some of the autistic people you know are significantly different from most humans. That's in line with the original content, not a counter-argument to it.

And with that said, I'm not sure I'm happy being in a conversation about how "different" a group of people is from normal people. It's hard to know how that will be taken by the people involved, and it may not be a nice feeling to read it.

Comment author: CCC 31 January 2013 06:59:10AM 1 point [-]

I'm imagining tasting where other people have been walking, and I can see a possible market for octopus shoes. Especially if other people haven't been cleaning up after their dogs.

Of course, it might just be that I'm squeamish because I'm not used to it. (But an octopus civilisation might choose the material from which to make their paths based on the taste thereof...)

In response to comment by CCC on Humans in Funny Suits
Comment author: CynicalOptimist 25 April 2016 10:41:10AM 1 point [-]

I think you're right. That squeamishness is very much a product of you having grown up as not-an-octopus.

Most creatures taste with an organ that's at the top of their digestive tract, it's fairly sensible that they have an aversion to tasting anything that they would be unhealthy for them to consume.

A species that had always had a chemical-composition-sense on all of it's limbs? Would almost certainly have a very different relationship with that sense than we have with taste.

In response to comment by CCC on Humans in Funny Suits
Comment author: jooyous 30 January 2013 08:51:09AM 1 point [-]

Okay, that sounds like a totally alien experience. Imagine tasting your floor! And like ... doorknobs and things.

Comment author: CynicalOptimist 25 April 2016 10:34:53AM 0 points [-]

I think this might be the bias in action yet again.

Our idea of an alien experience is to taste with a different part of our bodies? That's certainly more different-from-human than most rubber-forehead aliens, but "taste" is still a pretty human-familiar experience. There are species with senses that we don't have at all, like a sensitivity to magnetism or electric fields.

Comment author: Ryan4 31 July 2008 03:31:56AM 5 points [-]

I remember Star Trek TNG had an episode about a sort of progenitor humanoid race that had at some point in the past seeded parts of the galaxy with its DNA. So that was at least an attempt to explain why all the races were so similar. Even so I find it hard to get into any SF where alien races are obviously just subsets from human culture: the warrior race, the neutral race, the science race, the trader race, etc.

Comment author: CynicalOptimist 25 April 2016 10:26:44AM 0 points [-]

TV tropes calls that the "planet of hats". (visit tv tropes at your own peril, it's a notorious time sink).

I think it represents a different fallacy: to assume that am unfamiliar group of things (or people) are much more homogenous than they really are. And more specifically: to assume that a culture or group of things is entirely defined by the things that make them different from us.

Comment author: Scott_Aaronson2 31 July 2008 12:50:55AM 2 points [-]

Can't we imagine the SF writers reasoning that they're never going to succeed anyway in creating "real aliens," so they might as well abandon that goal from the outset and concentrate on telling a good story? Absent actual knowledge of alien intelligences, perhaps the best one can ever hope to do is to write "hypothetical humans": beings that are postulated to differ from humans in just one or two important respects that the writer wants to explore. (A good example is the middle third of The Gods Themselves, which delves into the family dynamics of aliens with three sexes instead of two, and one of the best pieces of SF I've read---not that I've read a huge amount.) Of course, most SF (like Star Wars) doesn't even do that, and is just about humans with magic powers, terrible dialogue, and funny ears. I guess Star Trek deserves credit for at least occasionally challenging its audience, insofar as that's possible with mass-market movies and TV.

Comment author: CynicalOptimist 25 April 2016 10:17:05AM *  0 points [-]

Yes, of course there are many good reasons why writers do this. Reasons why, for a writer, it can be good to do this, in addition to just being difficult to avoid.

But i don't think that's really the point. We're not here to critique science fiction. We're not tv critics. We're trying to learn rationality techniques to help us "win" whatever we're trying to win. And this is a fairly good description of a certain kind of bias.

You're right though. Sci-fi is a good example to demonstrate what the bias is, but not a great example to demonstrate why it's important.

Comment author: abramdemski 02 September 2012 10:35:23PM 8 points [-]

In the least convenient possible world, only the random traveler has a blood type compatible with all ten patients.

Comment author: CynicalOptimist 24 April 2016 12:56:48PM 2 points [-]

This is fair, because you're using the technique to redirect us back to the original morality issue.

But i also don't think that MBlume was completely evading the question either. The question was about ethical principles, and his response does represent an exploration of ethical principles. MBlume suggests that it's more ethical to sacrifice one of the lives that was already in danger, than to sacrifice an uninvolved stranger. (remember, from a strict utilitarian view, both solutions leave one person dead, so this is definitely a different moral principle.)

This technique is good for stopping people from evading the question. But some evasions are more appropriate than others.

Comment author: thrawnca 22 March 2016 02:29:30AM 0 points [-]

The happiness box is an interesting speculation, but it involves an assumption that, in my view, undermines it: "you will be completely happy."

This is assuming that happiness has a maximum, and the best you can do is top up to that maximum. If that were true, then the happiness box might indeed be the peak of existence. But is it true?

Comment author: CynicalOptimist 24 April 2016 12:45:50PM *  0 points [-]

Okay, well let's apply exactly the technique discussed above:

If the hypothetical Omega tells you that they're is indeed a maximum value for happiness, and you will certainly be maximally happy inside the box: do you step into the box then?

Note: I'm asking that in order to give another example of the technique in action. But still feel free to give a real answer if you'd choose to.

Side you didn't answer the question one way or another, I can't apply the second technique here. I can't ask what would have to change in order for you to change your answer.

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