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[LINK] Updating Drake's Equation with values from modern astronomy
A paper published in Astrobiology: A New Empirical Constraint on the Prevalence of Technological Species in the Universe (PDF), A. Frank and W.T. Sullivan.
From the abstract:
Recent advances in exoplanet studies provide strong constraints on all astrophysical terms in the Drake equation. [...] We find that as long as the probability that a habitable zone planet develops a technological species is larger than ~ 10-24, humanity is not the only time technological intelligence has evolved.
They say we now know with reasonable certainty the total number of stars ever to exist (in the observable universe), and the average number of planets in the habitable zone. But we still don't know the probabilities of life, intelligence, and technology arising. They call this cumulative unknown factor fbt.
Their result: for technological civilization to arise no more than once, with probability 0.01, in the lifetime of the observable universe, fbt should be no greater than ~ 2.5 x 10-24.
Discussion
It's convenient that they calculate the chance technological civilization ever arose, rather than the chance one exists now. This is just the number we need to estimate the likelihood of a Great Filter.
They state their result as "[if we set fbt ≤ 2.5 x 10-24, then] at in a statistical sense were we to rerun the history of the Universe 100 times, only once would a lone technological species occur". But I don't know what rerunning the Universe means. I also can't formulate this as saying "if we hadn't already observed the Universe to be apparently empty of life, we would expect it to contain or to have once contained life with a probability of 1024", because that would ignore the chance that another civilization (if it counterfactually existed) would have affected or prevented the rise of life on Earth. Can someone help reformulate this?
I don't know if their modern values for star and planet formation have been used in previous discussions of the Fermi paradox or the Great Filter. (The papers they cite for their values date from 2012, 2013 and 2015.) I also don't know if these values should be trusted, or what concrete values had been used previously. People on top of the Great Filter discussion probably already updated when the astronomical data came in.
Meetup : Tel Aviv Meetup: solving anthropic puzzles using UDT
Discussion article for the meetup : Tel Aviv Meetup: solving anthropic puzzles using UDT
Vadim Kosoy will give a talk about solving anthropic puzzles using UDT. The talk abstract:
Anthropic problems have been troubling thinkers for some time: the sleeping beauty problem, doomsday argument, simulation argument, Fermi paradox, Boltzmann brains etc. Application of approaches such as SIA and SSA to these problems have led to strange conclusions, pertaining not only to pure philosophy but also to cosmology, evolution and X-risk. In this talk, I will try to explain the UDT point of view on these problems that tends to dissolve the confusion and reinstate Egan's law.
We'll meet at the 29th floor of the building. Once everyone arrives, we'll move to a different room. If you arrive and can't find your way around, call Daniel at 054-7576-480.
The Less Wrong Tel Aviv group holds meetups every second Tuesday, alternating between talks on various subjects of interests (as this time) and game nights. You're invited to join our Facebook group and Google Group.
Discussion article for the meetup : Tel Aviv Meetup: solving anthropic puzzles using UDT
Meetup : Tel Aviv Meetup: Social & Board Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Tel Aviv Meetup: Social & Board Games
Next Tuesday at 19:00 we're going to have a social meetup! It's going to be a game night full of people talking about physics, friendly AI, and how to effectively save the world. Please bring any games you'd like to play.
The Israeli LessWrong community meets every two weeks, alternating between lectures and social/gaming nights.
Meet at Google, Electra Tower, 98 Yigal Alon Street, Tel Aviv: The 29th floor (not the Google Campus floor). We'll then move to a room.
Contact: If you can't find us, call Anatoly, who is graciously hosting us, at 054-245-1060; or Joshua at 054-569-1165.
Discussion article for the meetup : Tel Aviv Meetup: Social & Board Games
When does heritable low fitness need to be explained?
Epistemic status: speculating about things I'm not familiar with; hoping to be educated in the comments. This post is a question, not an answer.
ETA: this comment thread seems to be leading towards the best answer so far.
There's a question I've seen many times, most recently in Scott Alexander's recent links thread. This latest variant goes like this:
Old question “why does evolution allow homosexuality to exist when it decreases reproduction?” seems to have been solved, at least in fruit flies: the female relatives of gayer fruit flies have more children. Same thing appears to be true in humans. Unclear if lesbianism has a similar aetiology.
Obligate male homosexuality greatly harms reproductive fitness. And so, the argument goes, there must be some other selection pressure, one great enough to overcome the drastic effect of not having any children. The comments on that post list several other proposed answers, all of them suggesting a tradeoff vs. a benefit elsewhere: for instance, that it pays to have some proportion of gay men who invest their resources in their nieces and nephews instead of their own children.
But how do we know if this is a valid question - if the situation really needs to be explained at all?
Meetup : Tel Aviv Meetup: Social & Board Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Tel Aviv Meetup: Social & Board Games
This time we're going to have a social meetup! It's going to be a game night full of people talking about physics, friendly AI, and how to effectively save the world. Please bring any games you'd like to play.
The Israeli LessWrong community meets every two weeks, alternating between lectures and social/gaming nights.
Meet at the 29th floor (not the Google Campus floor). We'll then move to a room.
Contact: If you can't find us, call Anatoly, who is graciously hosting us, at 054-245-1060; or Joshua at 054-569-1165.
Discussion article for the meetup : Tel Aviv Meetup: Social & Board Games
Meetup : Less Wrong Israel Meetup: Social and Board Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong Israel Meetup: Social and Board Games
This time we're going to have a social meetup!
It's going to be a game night full of people talking about physics, friendly AI, and how to effectively save the world. Please bring any games you'd like to play.
Where: Google, Electra Tower, 98 Yigal Alon Street, Tel Aviv. Meet at the 29th floor (not the Google Campus floor). We'll then move to a room.
Contact: If you can't find us, call Anatoly, who is graciously hosting us, at 054-245-1060; or Joshua Fox at 054-569-1165.
Facebook: join the group. Please RSVP at the FB event if you have Facebook, to help us get a sense of what to expect.
The Less Wrong Tel Aviv group holds meetups every second Tuesday; the meetups were recently moved a week forward due to holidays. The meetups alternate between talks on various subjects of interests, and game nights (as this time).
Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong Israel Meetup: Social and Board Games
Meetup : Less Wrong Israel Meetup: Social and Board Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong Israel Meetup: Social and Board Games
This time we're going to have a social meetup!
It's going to be a game night full of people talking about physics, friendly AI, and how to effectively save the world. Please bring any games you'd like to play.
PLEASE NOTE that unlike always, we're NOT meeting at Google. The address we'll be meeting at is similarly close to HaShalom train station. If you use Facebook, please RSVP at the event page. There is an open parking lot nearby, at HaNatsiv 36-40, where you can park after 7-8 pm for free.
If you arrive and can't find your way, you can call our gracious host, Zack Noiman, for directions at 0525353040.
The Less Wrong Tel Aviv group holds meetups every second Tuesday. This time we're meeting out of schedule because we won't be able to meet next week. The meetups alternate between talks on various subjects of interests (as this time) and game nights. You're invited to join our Facebook group and Google Group.
Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong Israel Meetup: Social and Board Games
Meetup : Tel Aviv: Slightly Less Hard Problems of Consciousness
Discussion article for the meetup : Tel Aviv: Slightly Less Hard Problems of Consciousness
There will be a talk about some problems posed by the experience of consciousness, by Daniel Armak (me). It may transform into a round-table discussion, depending on audience participation.
I hope to update this post with an abstract later. I hope to post an abstract later. The title hints that this is not about Chalmers' so-called Hard Problem of Consciousness (there was previously some confusion about this), which isn't that hard a problem, anyway.
We'll meet at the 29th floor of the building. Once everyone arrives, we'll move to a different room. If you arrive and can't find your way around, call Anatoly who is graciously hosting us at 054-245-1060, or Daniel at 054-7576-480.
We'll start the meetup at 19:00, and we'll go on as much as we like to or until Anatoly kicks us out. If you can only come later, that's great too!
The Less Wrong Tel Aviv group holds meetups every second Tuesday, alternating between talks on various subjects of interests (as this time) and game nights. You're invited to join our Facebook group and Google Group.
The Facebook event is here. If you're coming, please RSVP there if you can, so we have a sense of what to expect.
Discussion article for the meetup : Tel Aviv: Slightly Less Hard Problems of Consciousness
Meetup : Less Wrong Israel Meetup: social and board games
Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong Israel Meetup: social and board games
We're having a meetup next week! There will be games that make you think, and people will also talking about physics, friendly AI, and how to effectively save the world.
As usual ;)
Please bring any games you'd like to share.
Where: Google, Electra Tower, 98 Yigal Alon Street, Tel Aviv. Meet at the 29th floor (not the Google Campus floor). We'll then move to a room.
Contact: If you can't find us, call Anatoly, who is graciously hosting us, at 054-245-1060; or Joshua Fox at 054-569-1165.
Facebook: Join the group. Please RSVP at the FB event if you have Facebook, to help us get a sense of what to expect.
Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong Israel Meetup: social and board games
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