Comment author: DavidAgain 06 August 2014 08:30:35AM 2 points [-]

Thought that people (particularly in the UK) might be interested to see this, a blog from one of the broadsheets on Bostrom's Superintelligence

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tomchiversscience/100282568/a-robot-thats-smarter-than-us-theres-one-big-problem-with-that/

In response to Gaming Democracy
Comment author: DavidAgain 01 August 2014 09:55:13AM 0 points [-]

I think the Kickstarter idea is interesting as a way to try to identify large-enough areas where a voting bloc might exist - and might make a more credible commitment than just a petition from people saying they'll vote based on something, which people might sign several of just because they support the cause. Otherwise, as people have said, this is something that pretty much exists already in various forms.

I think the fundamental problem with all the things you mention (transhumanism, homeopathy, FAI etc) is that the number of people per constituency who actually care about these enough to vote based on them would be miniscule. If this sort of thing was going to work, it would be on something with wider and more visceral appeal.

You also have to get things on the agenda - and realistically on the agenda - as well as get votes. The Government of the day sets the vast majority of what's debated, and deals with budgets etc. I therefore think this works better for things that are already being debated, and where the decision can be made somewhat independently from the broader government programme (e.g. the Eurosceptic one you mentioned). Otherwise there's little reason to think that the MP will get a chance to vote for your policy. You mention private membes Bills, but (i) they may not get one (ii) they're certainly not likely to get many, so you're asking them to give up a chance to promote their real priorities and/or build credibility with some other group. This is really unlikely, and makes defecting more likely: how many of your Kickstarters would really blame them if they raised an issue that had just emerged as a big urgent problem? (iii) they don't get passed all that often, ESPECIALLY on budgetary-type things: the science spend will already have been allocated to the Research Councils on a fairly long-term basis as part of an overall Spending Review, MPs don't very often just vote for a slug of money to go to something. You're talking about getting an exra £1bn out of the Treasury or diverting about a 30th of the already-allocated science budget: I don't see it happening.

Finally, I wouldn't be entirely surprised if that Kickstarter commitment to vote certain ways was regarded as breaking a law established to protect the secret ballot and prevent vote-rigging

Comment author: DavidAgain 05 July 2014 09:33:09AM 0 points [-]

This sort of standardised/independent testing would have a much more radical effect than the professor-teacher relationship. From my experience in the UK, plenty of people could get a decent grade at various humanities subjects just by doing a couple of weeks of 'revising' the subjects raised in exams and making sure they understood how it was graded. With university increasingly expensive (in the UK fees were introduced about 20 years ago, rose to £3k a year 10 years ago and rose to up to £9k a year a couple of years ago), it would be very interesting to see the effect of someone being able to get a degree in English by demonstrating their ability rather than having to pay the time/money cost of 3 years of studying.

I'm not sure the results would be overall good: you'd get more hothousing and less depth of knowledge etc. etc. But I think it would be quite meritocratic both for first-time students and for people in work who'd like to respecialise in something needing a new degree but find the costs of doing the course prohibitive.

It would also expose a huge difference between degrees that just require a library and a computer, and degrees that require access to labs of various kinds.

Comment author: DavidAgain 23 June 2014 01:02:59PM 1 point [-]

This area (or perhaps just the example?) is complicated somewhat because for authority-based moral systems (parental, religious, legal, professional...) directly ignoring a command/ruling is in itself considered to be an immoral act: on top of whatever the content of said act was. And even if the immorality of the act is constant, most of those systems seem to recognise in principle and/or in practice that acting when you suspect you'd get a different order is different to direct breaking of orders.

This makes sense for all sorts of practical reasons: caution around uncertainty, the clearer Schelling point of 'you directly disobeyed', and, cynically, the fact that it can allow those higher in the authority chain plausible deniability (the old "I'm going to pay you based on your sales. Obviously I won't tell you to use unscrupulous methods. If you ask me directly about any I will explicitly ban them. But I might not ask you in too much detail what you did to achieve those sales: that's up to you")

Comment author: Slider 12 June 2014 12:49:53PM *  1 point [-]

Orin is willing to risk the kingdom as there is very real impact on being wrong. 10 likewise lost bets could ruin the kingdom. It's not a good test of truthfullness but it test's that the subjects knows the gravity and is sure he did not misunderstand anything.

Also Orin net worth is 3-4 lifetimes of skilled work? He must have inherited more than he will ever make. Assuming 3 kids per generation and one working parent the reward will see almost all of his 81 great grandchidlren workfree (as there is enough money to fund 100 lives).

The only way to be indifferent about whether honest persons have valid intel or not is to earn money equal to the damages of raising the bridges. 1000c / (200c/p / 70y / 365d/y *3d) the population of the kingdom is about 42583 if the skilled craftman's life payments would be the average payments (but it is not so it's more).

*miscalculated king winnigs of 800c resulted in population of 34066.

Comment author: DavidAgain 13 June 2014 01:01:52PM 0 points [-]

To be charitable, it says that he'd be making 'payments' on 200 coins for the rest of his life. So possibly this means that he can pay off the interest, but not the capital? This would assume that he can pass on the debt to his children or somesuch, or just that banks grudgingly lend money to people who owe the paranoid king and then just extract as much money as they can from those people...

Comment author: bramflakes 25 October 2013 03:35:02PM 4 points [-]

If there's a reason to be interested in average IQ beyond mutual ego-massage, I guess the best way would be to have an IQ test where you logged on as 'Less Wrong member X' and then it reported all the results, not just the ones that people chose to share.

Would still suffer from selection effects. People that thought they might not do so well would be disinclined to do it, and people who knew they were hot shit would be extra inclined to do it. The phrase "anonymous survey" doesn't really penetrate into our status-aware hindbrains.

Comment author: DavidAgain 26 October 2013 04:43:45PM 0 points [-]

Yep! But it's the best way I can imagine that someone could plausibly create on the forum.

Comment author: RolfAndreassen 25 October 2013 04:40:41PM 1 point [-]

This doesn't seem to me to be about fundamental intelligence, but upbringing/training/priorities.

Well, then I have to ask what you think "fundamental intelligence" consists of, if not ability with (and consequently patience for and interest in) abstractions.

Can we taboo 'intelligence', perhaps? We are discussing what someone ought to do who is average in something, which I think we are implicitly assuming to be bell-curved-ish distributed. How changeable is that something, and how important is its presence to understanding the Sequences?

Comment author: DavidAgain 25 October 2013 04:50:02PM 2 points [-]

I reject the assumption behind 'ability with (and consequentially patience for and interest in)'. You could equally say 'patience for and interest in (and consequentially ability in)', and it's entirely plausible that said patience/interest/ability could all be trained.

Lots of people I know went to schools were languages were not prioritised in teaching. These people seem to be less inherently good at languages, and to have less patience with languages, and to have less interest in them. If someone said 'how can they help the Great Work of Translation without languages', I could suggest back office roles, acting as domestic servants for the linguists, whatever. But my first port of call would be 'try to see if you can actually get good at languages'

So my answer to your question is basically that by the time someone is the sort of person who says 'I am not that intelligent but I am a utilitarian rationalist seeking advice on how to live a more worthwhile life' that they are either already higher on the bellcurve than simple 'intelligence' would suggest, or at least they are highly likely to be able to advance.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 25 October 2013 03:39:38PM 8 points [-]

Selection bias - which groups and forums actually asked about IQ?

Your average knitting/auto maintenance/comic book forum probably has a lower average IQ but doesn't think to ask. And of course we're already selecting a little just by taking the figures off of web forums, which are a little on the cerebral side.

Comment author: DavidAgain 25 October 2013 04:43:57PM 2 points [-]

True. I don't think I can define the precise level of inaccuracy or anything. My point is not that I've detected the true signal: it's that there's too much noise for there to be a useful signal.

Do I think the average LessWronger has a higher IQ? Sure. But that's nothing remotely to do with this survey. It's just too flawed to give me any particularly useful information. I would probably update my view of LW intelligence more based on its existence than its results. In that reading the thread lowers my opinion of LW intellgence, simply because this forum is usually massively more rational and self-questioning than every other forum I've been on, which I would guess is associated with high IQ, and people taking the survey seriously is one of the clearest exceptions.

BTW, I'm not sure your assessments of knitting/auto maintenance/comic books/web forums are necessarily accurate. I'm not sure I have enough information on any of them to reasonably guess their intelligence. Forums are particularly exceptional in terms of showing amazing intelligence and incredible stupidity side by side.

Comment author: ShardPhoenix 25 October 2013 10:39:20AM 5 points [-]

I don't think most of LessWrong's material is out of reach of an average-intelligence person.

Wasn't the average IQ here from the survey something like 130+?

Comment author: DavidAgain 25 October 2013 03:09:41PM *  9 points [-]

I bet the average LessWrong person has a great sense of humour and feels things more than other people, too.

Seriously, every informal IQ survey amongst a group/forum I have seen reports very high IQ. My (vague) memories of the LessWrong one included people who seemed to be off the scale (I don't mean very bright. I mean that such IQs either have never been given out in official testing rather than online tests, or possibly that they just can't be got on those tests and people were lying).

There's always a massive bias in self-reporting: those will only be emphasised on an intellectual website that starts the survey post by saying that LessWrongers are, on average, in the top 0.11% for SATs, and gives pre-packaged excuses for not reporting inconvenient results - "Many people would prefer not to have people knowing their scores. That's great, but please please please do post it anonymously. Especially if it's a low one, but not if it's low because you rushed the test", (my emphasis).

If there's a reason to be interested in average IQ beyond mutual ego-massage, I guess the best way would be to have an IQ test where you logged on as 'Less Wrong member X' and then it reported all the results, not just the ones that people chose to share. And where it revealed how many people pulled out halfway through (to avoid people bailing if they weren't doing well).

Comment author: RolfAndreassen 25 October 2013 02:30:40PM 19 points [-]

I think this underestimates the difficulty average humans have with just reading upwards of 2500 words about abstract ideas. It's not a question even of getting the explanation, it's a question of simply being able to pay attention to it.

I keep repeating this: The average human is extremely average. Check your privilege, as the social-justice types might say. You're assuming a level of comfort with, and interest in, abstraction that just is not the case for most of our species.

Comment author: DavidAgain 25 October 2013 03:00:29PM 2 points [-]

This doesn't seem to me to be about fudamental intelligence, but upbringing/training/priorities.

You say in another response that IQ correlates heavily with conscientiousness (though others dispute it). But even if that's true, different cultures/jobs/education systems make different sort of demands, and I don't think we can assume that most people who aren't currently inclined to read long, abstract posts can't do so.

I know from personal experience that it can take quite a long while to get used to a new sort of taking in information (lectures rather than lessons, reading rather than lectures, reading different sorts of things (science to arguments relying on formal or near-formal logic to broader humanities). And even people who are very competent at focusing on a particular way of gaining information can get out of the habit and find it hard to readjust after a break.

In terms of checking privilege, there is a real risk that those with slightly better training/jargon, or simply those who think/talk more like ourselves are mistaken for being fundamentally more intelligent/rational.

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