Comment author: MaximumLiberty 19 October 2014 08:21:18PM 2 points [-]

I think I get your meaning. You mean that the webapp itself would carry out the testing protocol. I was thinking that it would be designed by the sponsor using standardized components. I think what you are saying is that it would be more rigid than that. This would allow much more certainty in the meaning of the result. Your example of "using X resulted in average weight loss of Y compared to a control group" would be a case that could be standardized, where "average weight loss" is a configurable data element.

Max L.

Comment author: DavidLS 19 October 2014 10:37:25PM 1 point [-]

Yes. I think if we can manage it, requiring data-analysis to be pre-declared is just better. I don't think science as a whole can do this, because not all data is as cheap to produce as product testing data.

Now that I've heard your reply to question #8, I need to consider this again. Perhaps we could have some basic claims done by software, while allowing for additional claims such as "those over 50 show twice the results" to be verified by grad students. I will think about this.

Comment author: MaximumLiberty 19 October 2014 08:18:09PM 5 points [-]

One option is simply to report it to the Federal Trade Commission for investigation, along with a negative publicity statement. That externalizes the cost.

If you would like assistance drafting the agreements, I am a lawyer and would be happy to help. I have deep knowledge about technology businesses, intellectual property licensing, and contracting, mid-level knowledge about data privacy, light knowledge about HIPAA, and no knowledge about medical testing or these types of protocols. I'm also more than fully employed, so you'd have the constraint of taking the time I could afford to donate.

Max L.

Comment author: DavidLS 19 October 2014 10:25:42PM 1 point [-]

FTC is so much better than lawsuit. I don't know a single advertiser that isn't afraid of the FTC. It looks like enforcement is tied to complaint numbers, so the press release should include information about how to personally complain (and go out to a mailing list as well).

I would love assistance with the agreements. It sounds like you would be more suited to the Business <> Non-Profit agreements than the Participant <> Business agreements. How do I maximize the value of your contribution? Are you more suited to the high-level term sheet, or the final wording?

Comment author: MaximumLiberty 19 October 2014 08:14:02PM 3 points [-]

I was thinking something like the karma score here. People could comment on the data and the math that leads to the conclusions, and debunk the ones that are misleading. A problem would be that, If you allow endorsers, rather than just debunkers, you could get in a situation where a sponsor pays people to publicly accept the conclusions. Here are my thoughts on how to avoid this.

First, we have to simplify the issue down to a binary question: does the data fairly support the conclusion that the sponsor claims? The sponsor would offer $x for each of the first Y reviewers with a reputation score of at least Z. They have to pay regardless of what the reviewer's answer to the question is. If the reviewers are unanimous, then they all get small bumps to their reputation. If they are not unanimous, then they see each others' reviews (anonymously and non-publicly at this point) and can change their positions one time. After that, those who are in the final majority and did not change their position get a bump up in reputation, but only based on the number of reviewers who switched to be in the final majority. (I.e. we reward reviewers who persuade others to change their position.) The reviews are then opened to a broader number of people with positive reputations, who can simply vote yes or no, which again affects the reputations of the reviewers. Again, voting is private until complete, then people who vote with the majority get small reputation bumps. At the conclusion of the process, everyone's work is made public.

I'm sure that there are people who have thought about reputation systems more than I have. But I have mostly seen reputation systems as a mechanism for creating a community where certain standards are upheld in the absence of monetary incentives. A reputation system that is robust against gaming seems difficult.

Max L.

Comment author: DavidLS 19 October 2014 10:22:31PM 1 point [-]

I'm very glad I asked for more clarification. I'm going to call this system The Reviewer's Dilemma, it's a very interesting solution for allowing non-software analysis to occur in a trusted manner. I am somewhat worried about a laziness bias (it's much easier to agree than disprove), but I imagine that there is a similar bounty for overturning previous results this might be handled.

I'll do a little customer development with some friends, but the possibility of reviewers being added as co-authors might also act as a nice incentive (both to reduce laziness, and as addition compensation).

Comment author: ChristianKl 19 October 2014 03:15:15PM 5 points [-]

In the Reproducibility Initiative PloS, and a few partner came together to improve the quality of science.

I would suggest all the people listed as advisors in the Reproducibility Initiative whether there are interested in your project. PloS would be a good trusted third-party with an existing brand.

Comment author: DavidLS 19 October 2014 09:59:13PM *  3 points [-]

Thank you. I had not seen the reproducibility initiative. Link very much appreciated, I'll start the conversation tonight. PLoS hosting the application would be ideal.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 19 October 2014 07:14:45AM 4 points [-]

StackOverflow et al are also free and offer no compensation except for points and awards and reputation. Maybe it can be combined. Points for regular participation, prominent mention somewhere and awards being real rewards. The downside is that this may pose moral hazards of some kind.

Comment author: DavidLS 19 October 2014 07:44:50AM 4 points [-]

Oh, interesting.

I had been assuming that participants needed to be drawn from the general population. If we don't think there's too much hazard there, I agree a points system would work. Some portion of the population would likely just enjoy the idea of receiving free product to test.

Comment author: blogospheroid 19 October 2014 04:56:58AM 1 point [-]

I have been thinking of a lot of incentivized networks and was almost coming to the same conclusion, that the extra cost and the questionable legality in certain jurisdictions may not be worth the payoff, and then the Nielsen scandal showed up on my newsfeed. I think there is a niche, just not sure where would it be most profitable. Incidentally Steve Waldman also had a recent post on this - social science data being maintained in a neutral blockchain.

About the shipping of products and placebos to people, I see a physical way of doing it, but it is definitely not scalable.

Let's say there is a typical batch of identical products to be tested. They've been moved to the final inventory sub-inventory, but not yet to the staging area where they are to be shipped out. The people from the testing service arrive with a bunch of duplicate labels for the batch and the placebos and replace 1/2 the quantity with placebo. Now, only the testing service knows which item is placebo and which is product.

This requires 2 things from the system - the ability to trace individual products and the ability to print duplicate labels. the latter should be common except for places which might have some legal issues for continuous numbering. Ability to trace individual products is there in a lot of discrete mfg. but a whole lot of process manufacturing industries have only traceability by batch/lot.

Comment author: DavidLS 19 October 2014 07:31:49AM *  1 point [-]

Your approach to blinding makes sense, and works. I thought we were trying for a zero third party approach though?

I was giving more thought to a distributed solution during dinner, and I think I see how to solve the physical shipments problem in a scalable way. I'm still not 100% sold on it, but consider these two options:

  • You ship both a placebo package and a non-placebo package to the participant, and have them flip a coin to decide which one to use. They either throw away or disregard the other package for the duration of the study.
  • You ship N packages to Total/N participants. The participants which receive N packages then randomly assigns himself a package, and randomly distributes the remaining (N-1) packages to other participants.

They both require trusting the participant with assignment. Which feels wrong to me, but I'm not sure why...

Comment author: Metus 19 October 2014 06:03:02AM 10 points [-]

Those participants are randomly assigned to two groups: (1) act normal, and (2) use Beeminder to track exercise and food intake.

These kind of studies suffer from the Hawthorne effect. It is better to assign the control group to do virtually anything instead of nothing. In this case I'd suggest to have them simply monitor their exercise and food intake without any magical line and/or punishment.

Comment author: DavidLS 19 October 2014 07:05:18AM *  3 points [-]

Thank you. I had forgotten about that.

So let's say the two groups were, as you suggest:

  • Tracking food & exercise on Beeminder
  • Tracking food & exercise in a journal

Do you have any thoughts on what questions we should be asking about this product? Somehow the data collection and analysis once we have the timeseries data doesn't seem so hard... but the protocol and question design seems very difficult to me.

Comment author: Metus 19 October 2014 06:01:20AM 4 points [-]

Here are some initial features we should consider:

  • Data will be collected by a webapp controlled by a trusted third party, and will only be editable by study participants.
  • The results will be computed by software decided on before the data is collected.
  • Studies will be published regardless of positive or negative results.
  • Studies will have mandatory general-purpose safety questions. (web-only products likely exempt)
  • Follow up studies will be mandatory for continued use of results in advertisements.
  • All software/contracts/questions used will be open sourced (MIT) and creative commons licensed (CC BY), allowing for easier cross-product comparisons.

These requirements are higher than the average study in social sciences could fulful.[Citation needed]

That being said, I would put more faith in this startup if it targeted more professional research first and thus made itself more compatible with traditional papers. In a first step it would require researchers to announce a study and then publish the results regardless of the outcome (as is already done by some journals, as far as I know.) In a second step, require the results to be analysed by code published in advance under some kind of open content / open source licence. In a third step require there to be a replication under the same conditions for the claim to be published "officially". And so on.

I'll think about it some more, but the whole thing seems like it has been discussed on LW before.

Comment author: DavidLS 19 October 2014 06:24:30AM 2 points [-]

Thank you. Help considering the methodology and project growth prospects is very much appreciated.

I agree that compatibility with traditional papers is important. It was not stated explicitly, but I do want the results to be publishable in traditional journals. I plan on publishing the results for my company's product. It seemed to me like being overly rigorous might be a selling point initially -- "sure we did the study cheap / didn't use a university, but look how insanely rigorous we were"

Going after professional researchers seems much harder. They actually know how to perform the research, so the value proposition is much weaker -- they are already trusted, and know how to use R :p

These are just initial thoughts. I'll think about this more.

Comment author: Nightspacer 19 October 2014 05:11:12AM 2 points [-]

The Beeminder and HabitRPG links both point to less wrong blank pages.

Comment author: DavidLS 19 October 2014 06:05:10AM 2 points [-]

Thanks, fixed.

Comment author: blogospheroid 19 October 2014 02:45:42AM 2 points [-]

Hi David,

This is a worthwhile initiative. All the very best to you.

I would advise that this data be maintained on a blockchain like data structure. It will be highly redundant and very difficult to corrupt, which I think is one of the primary concerns here.

http://storj.io, http://metadisk.org/

Comment author: DavidLS 19 October 2014 03:22:56AM 4 points [-]

Interesting. I'm hoping that by getting a trustworthy non-profit to host the site (and paying for a security audit) we can largely side step the issues.

I spent a long time trying to create a way not to need the trusted third party, but I kept hitting dead ends. The specific dead end that hurt the most was blinding of physical product shipments.

If we can figure out a way to ship both products and placebos to people without knowing who's getting what, I think we can do this :)

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