Comment author: Davidmanheim 14 January 2016 05:42:55AM 0 points [-]

Also, a little bit of recommended reading: What is EA? - http://www.effectivealtruism.org/about-ea What Evidence Filtered Evidence - http://lesswrong.com/lw/jt/what_evidence_filtered_evidence/

Comment author: Davidmanheim 07 December 2015 05:45:09PM 0 points [-]

There are very few majors / areas of study where a single focus isn't significantly improved with a minor - and frequently, if it's not your major, Comp Sci is a great additional skillset. This is especially true if you need to take the credits anyways, and can choose between random course, or completing a minor with just a bit more work.

You want to do science? Almost no area doesn't need programming as well - it will help you get into grad school. You want to work in business? You'll spend half your day working on spreadsheets, and a CS background is invaluable for making that work better.

You want to do computer programming already? Great, what type? because a minor elsewhere will be a bonus! Video games? Comp Sci + Graphic Design or Literature Corporate work? Comp Sci + Business, Accounting, or Finance.

Comment author: Clarity 25 August 2015 11:08:25AM *  4 points [-]

I want existing friends to be more aware of my preferences and interests so that they'll be able to match and meet them more often (ie suggesting an activity I will like). I guess I can do that by constructing a profile with just likes and such. I will do that.

I also want to meet people who share those interests, so I will begin joining and participating in appropriate groups.

I also want to interact more with other rationalists, but from what I've seen nothing of merit comes from rationalist facebook groups (based on LessWrong associated groups).

Thanks for your extremely actionable suggestion and question. I don't know how you came up with the appropriate question to ask me!

Comment author: Davidmanheim 26 August 2015 05:29:47PM 0 points [-]

In consulting and in policy analysis, one of the first steps of problem solving is laying out the problem clearly.

As a start, I recommend Ken Wanatabe's fun and readable "Problem Solving 101: A Simple Book for Smart People."

Comment author: Clarity 23 August 2015 12:39:26PM 1 point [-]

How should I use facebook, assuming I have a facebook but don't post anything, just message as of now?

Comment author: Davidmanheim 24 August 2015 11:57:46PM 2 points [-]

You need to be clearer about your goals.

Do you want more interaction with existing friends? Do you want to meet new people? Do you want an easier way to interact with other rationalists?

Comment author: ChristianKl 11 August 2015 06:53:50PM 1 point [-]

We're talking about ways to systematically lose money, which means you would need to systematically throw yourself into the front-runner's path

Simply making random trades in a market where some participants are front runners will mean that some of those trades are with front runners where you lose money.

I would call that systematically losing money. On the other hand it doesn't give you an ability to forcast where you will lose the money to make the opposite bet and win money.

Do you think our disagreement is about the way the EMH is defined or are you pointing to something more substantial?

Comment author: Davidmanheim 19 August 2015 11:47:27PM 0 points [-]

No, no disagreement about EMH, that's exactly the point.

Comment author: bbleeker 11 August 2015 08:50:44AM 5 points [-]

Anonymous voting is the default, and I always leave it on.

Comment author: Davidmanheim 19 August 2015 11:45:14PM -1 points [-]

I'd prefer to see accountability be a default, with anonymity whenever desired.

Comment author: ChristianKl 10 August 2015 06:30:39PM 2 points [-]

That leaves the question of whether that's okay or whether we should simply disable the account.

Submitting...

Comment author: Davidmanheim 11 August 2015 04:36:22AM 0 points [-]

It's interesting looking at the raw data breakdown of non -anonymous versus anonymous votes.

Comment author: Lumifer 11 August 2015 01:04:18AM 3 points [-]

Then a person placing a dumb trade is creating a mispricing, which will be consumed by some market agent.

Well, that looks like an "offering to buy a stock for $1 more than its current price" scenario. You can easily lose a lot of money by buying things at the offer and selling them at the bid :-)

But let's imagine a scenario where everything is happening pre-tax, there are no transaction costs, we're operating in risk-adjusted terms and, to make things simple, the risk-free rate is zero. Moreover, the markets are orderly and liquid.

Assuming you can competently express a market view, can you systematically lose money by consistently taking the wrong side under EMH?

Comment author: Davidmanheim 11 August 2015 04:22:39AM 1 point [-]

Yes. Unless you think that all possible market information is reflected now, before it becomes available, someone makes money when information emerges, moving the market.

Comment author: Lumifer 13 July 2015 03:19:06PM 3 points [-]

Today's blog post by Yvain starts:

Anxiety disorders are the most common class of psychiatric disorders. Their US prevalence is about 20%. They’re also among the least recognized and least treated...

Comment author: Davidmanheim 14 July 2015 06:23:30PM 0 points [-]

Also, they are incredibly treatable.

And on the irrationality scale, not fixing a debilitating problem that is very fixable ranks pretty high.

Comment author: ford_prefect42 14 June 2015 06:33:51PM 0 points [-]

I had not. And I will avoid that in the future. However, that has very little bearing on my overall post. Please ignore the single sentence that references works of fiction.

Comment author: Davidmanheim 15 June 2015 04:21:26AM 0 points [-]

Also all of the framing that are implied by those works? And the dichotomy that you propose?

You shouldn't just read it, think about how it has warped your perspective on AI risks - that's the point.

View more: Prev | Next