In response to comment by Sideways on Cached Selves
Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 23 March 2009 08:37:25AM 12 points [-]

I have to say, that goes a bit beyond what I intended. But that part where I communicate the experience is really important. I wonder if there's some way to make it a bit less darkish without losing the experiential communication?

Comment author: Demosthenes 23 March 2009 04:35:29PM 7 points [-]

It may be time for a good Style vs Content Debate; first commenter to scream false dilemma gets a prize

Comment author: Yvain 22 March 2009 10:50:18PM *  4 points [-]

One theme of OB and LW has been to take the fuzzy complexity of the real world and show that in principle at some level it's related to something precise. We can't actually do Bayesian math in our heads for real-world calculations, but just knowing how to work the ideal case protects us against certain real-world errors. Likewise, Eliezer's meta-ethics reduces morality down to some horrendously complex thing that we can never calculate, but it's nice to know that morality does reduce to something when we're wondering whether it exists at all, whether it's all relative, or so on.

The real positivists thought they could reduce all language to their positivism and spent thirty years trying. I don't think I'm going to do that in a few days of posting about stuff on a blog. But if I can sketch a few really-large-scale things and then let people's common sense fill in the blanks, that'll still be better than nothing.

Comment author: Demosthenes 22 March 2009 11:15:04PM *  2 points [-]

Speaking of themes; I guess one thing that bothered me about this post (many of your other posts are very good) is that this post doesn't seem to serve a point; questioning assumptions is often brought up on OB and LW and asking others to be more precise in describing their assumptions is also very common. Any connection to positivism here seems very tenuous; criticizing positivism has little or no impact on soft-positivism.

I feel that there are many other OB and LW posts that would address this issue more effectively and it might be better to just make this page an index of them as opposed to a full post.

That said, there is no way to easily recognize a lot of the themes here and LW in particular runs the risk of just becoming a repository of the same things over and over again.

Are we really refining the art of human rationality here?

In response to Cached Selves
Comment author: Liron 22 March 2009 08:30:29PM 1 point [-]

This is a really good post. I particularly like the suggestion that we don't have to infer and cache conclusions about ourselves when we screw up and don't return a library book. (Of course, other people would be rational to cache a conclusion about us because thinking differently wouldn't be a self-fulfilling prophecy.)

In response to comment by Liron on Cached Selves
Comment author: Demosthenes 22 March 2009 10:57:23PM *  6 points [-]

This is the first post I've seen that seems to really fit Less Wrong's mission of "refining the art of human rationality"

This post clearly spells out some issues, links them to research and presents possible solutions. I hope that more posts in the future take this form.

This post also nicely outlines the problem of one's ability to really doubt themselves constantly at the appropriate level. I think these two points present a big challenge to the mission of leading a rational life:

3c. Reframe your past behavior as having occurred in a different context, and as not bearing on today’s decisions. Or add context cues to trick your brain into regarding today's decision as belonging to a different category than past decisions. This is, for example, part of how conversion experiences can help people change their behavior. (For a cheap hack, try traveling.)

3d. More specifically, visualize your life as something you just inherited from someone else; ignore sunk words as you would aspire to ignore sunk costs.

How someone could do enough compartmentalizing of their identity to pull of either of these tasks escapes me.

Comment author: Anatoly_Vorobey 22 March 2009 10:14:43PM *  16 points [-]

This may be excessive nit-picking, I'm not sure; but I just don't think that your examples of the Connotation Game provide connotations as you define them. "demagogue" and "eloquent" have different denotations - it's not just the emotional aura of the words, their actual meanings are different. Ditto for "patriotic" and "jingoistic" and so forth. The point of the game is that the same person/act can be described by flattering, neutral and disparaging words, but even though the same behavior is described by different words, the meanings of the words are different. The game points out inherent subjectivity present in those meanings.

If you used e.g. "black", "colored" and "African-American", then it'd be about connotations. But that's not how the game is played.

More generally, I think you're trying to give the concept of a connotation a larger role than it's used to. Connotations are about differences in phrases like "ultra-rich", "stinking rich", and "independently wealthy". In the phrase about the ultra-rich you quote, it seems difficult to assign the subtext being carried to connotations, unless you want to use "connotation" in the sense of "subtext, any implied meaning". But I don't think those shoes will fit the word.

Subtexts are very important, and are used insidiously all the time. They're not always emotional; sometimes they exploit logical structure, as in the canonical example "Have you stopped beating your wife?" It's difficult to stand your ground against them, and forcing them into the open, demanding that they be made explicit, as you suggest, is a useful technique. Unfortunately, it usually won't work on someone who feels entitles to use a subtext against you - due to either intentional demagoguery or misguided self-righteousness, for instance.

One framework that seems to make a careful study of implied meanings is that of framing. I don't really know what they're doing with this and whether it's more than a useful metaphor. But, to repeat myself, I think that "connotations" might be too straight a jacket to use for the notion.

Comment author: Demosthenes 22 March 2009 10:19:18PM *  5 points [-]

This post just appeared at Language log and has this to say:

Language Log could devote a thousand posts to the project of underlining and elaborating the ways in which grammar does not protect us against misunderstanding the sound of an uttered name, and logic does not protect us against what we say having double meaning. Come to think of it, the thousand posts may already have been written: there are over 5,500 old posts searchable here and already over 1,200 new ones on the present server searchable here.

http://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?p=1258

Asking others to clarify their assumptions is good, but translating them into positivist language might not be as precise as it sounds

Comment author: SoullessAutomaton 20 March 2009 08:48:07PM 2 points [-]

I do believe that anonymous fund raising removes information about community participation that is very valuable to potential donors. Part of making a donation is responding the signal that you are not the only one sending a check to a hopeless office somewhere.

The reason I specified anonymity was to reduce the likelihood of a social stigma attached to not donating. The idea of pressuring people into an otherwise voluntary gesture of support makes me very uncomfortable.

However, I may be overcautious on that aspect, and I defer to your greater experience with fundraising. Do you have any other empirical observations about response to fundraising efforts? You could consider submitting an article on the subject, either as it relates to instrumental rationality, or for the benefit of anyone else who might want to organize a rationality-related non-profit.

Comment author: Demosthenes 21 March 2009 04:17:23AM 3 points [-]

I think your caution is warranted, the fact that you can see the other people in the synagogue who don't stand up could be very hurtful to the nonparticipants. Highlighting individual donors or small groups is a good way to show public support without giving away to much information about your membership's participation as a whole.

If you are interested in more rigorous studies (we did ours in excel), you might want to try Dean Karlan's "Does Price Matter in Charitable Giving? Evidence from a Large-Scale Natural Field Experiment " <http://karlan.yale.edu/p/MatchingGrant.pdf>

I will try to dig up some other papers online

Comment author: gwern 20 March 2009 01:45:31PM *  5 points [-]

And of course, how can we forget Tennyson's Ulysses?

How dull it is to pause, to make an end,
To rust unburnished, not to shine in use!
As though to breathe were life. Life piled on life
Were all too little, and of one to me
Little remains: but every hour is saved
From that eternal silence, something more,
A bringer of new things; and vile it were
For some three suns to store and hoard myself,
And this grey spirit yearning in desire
To follow knowledge like a sinking star,
Beyond the utmost bound of human thought.

... -- you and I are old;
Old age hath yet his honour and his toil;
Death closes all: but something ere the end,
Some work of noble note, may yet be done,
Not unbecoming men that strove with Gods.

Tho' much is taken, much abides; and though
We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven; that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.

EDIT: dang it, what is up with this lesswrong markdown? br tags don't work, and I need to add some non-quoted text between quoted fragments? And I thought normal markdown was messed up for ignoring newlines in quoted text!

Comment author: Demosthenes 20 March 2009 06:10:37PM *  2 points [-]

Putting a double space after each line should break it; I had the same problem with poetry.

test
lines
here

Comment author: SoullessAutomaton 20 March 2009 03:11:31PM 10 points [-]

I'm going to agree with the people saying that agreement often has little to no useful information content (the irony is acknowledged). Note, for instance, that content-free "Me too!" posts have been socially contraindicated on the internet since time immemorial, and content-free disagreement is also generally verboten. This also explains the conference example, I expect. Significantly, if this is actually the root of the issue, we don't want to fight it. Informational content is a good thing. However, we may need to find ways to counteract the negative effects.

Personally, having been somewhat aware of this phenomenon, when I've agreed with what someone said I sometimes try to contribute something positive; a possible elaboration on one of their points, a clarification of an off-hand example if it's something I know well, an attempt to extend their argument to other territory, &c.

In cases like the fundraising one, where the problem is more individual misperception of group trends, we probably want something like an anonymous poll--i.e., "Eliezer needs your help to fund his new organization to encourage artistic expression from rationalists. Would you donate money to this cause?", with a poll and a link to a donation page. I would expect you'd actually get a slightly higher percentage voting "yes" than actually donating, though I don't know if that would be a problem. You'd still get the same 90% negative responses, but people would also see that maybe 60% said they would donate.

Comment author: Demosthenes 20 March 2009 04:22:36PM *  10 points [-]

I've worked for a number of non profits and in analysis of our direct mailings, we would get a better response from a mailing that included one of two things

  1. A single testimonial mentioning the amount that some person gave
  2. Some sort of comment about the group average (listeners are making pledges of $150 this season)

This is one of the reasons that some types of nonprofits choose to create levels of giving; my guess is that it is gaming these common level of giving ideas by creating artificial norms of participation. Note You can base your levels on actual evidence and not just round numbers! (plus inflation, right?)

We also generally found that people respond well to the idea of a matching donation (which is rational since your gift is now worth more).

I do believe that anonymous fund raising removes information about community participation that is very valuable to potential donors. Part of making a donation is responding the signal that you are not the only one sending a check to a hopeless office somewhere.

Anonymous polls might be a good idea, but especially among rational types, you might want the individual testimony: you get to see some of the reasoning!

I think the synagogue in the story picked up on these ideas and used them effectively. But the nice thing about raising money through direct mailing and the internet is that you can run experiments!

Comment author: Demosthenes 20 March 2009 03:54:56AM *  5 points [-]

American Rhetoric is an incredible site and there are some real gems that aspire to rational persuasion with some flair.

<http://www.americanrhetoric.com/top100speechesall.html>

Malcolm X's "Ballot or the Bullet" navigates the fact that he is black, widely regarded as dangerous and Muslim all at once while urging people to put these things aside and think about his plans and their outcomes. He does a first rate job of tailoring his rhetoric to increase your emotional desire to think and not react.

Milton Friedman is another person to watch live. He gets a bad rap from people who don't watch him, but if you have ever heard him speak, he excels at softly thinking through positions with the listener while still taking bold positions.

<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfdRpyfEmBE&feature=player_embedded>

They said it best in Howard Stern Private Parts:

"I want to hear what he'll say next."

Gladwell is probably the best for presenting fact and figures in speeches. You might not like his numbers or rigor, but his presentatoon methods are top notch, often focused on challenging his listeners beliefs with academic research:

<http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6204900041349106153&ei=YRTDSerTM4qIqwLbn9yuCw&q=Gladwell&hl=en>

In response to Rationalist Fiction
Comment author: Demosthenes 19 March 2009 02:57:30PM *  8 points [-]

"If You Give a Mouse a Cookie"

A good primer on chaos theory for youth?

"Rendezvous with Rama"

Why have a plot when gradual discovery with expository dialogue will do.

"Contact" -Sagan

More scientific method

"The Diamond Age" -Stephenson

This book even has long discussions of computing

"Sideways Stories from Wayside School"

Anything with jokes is going to be about logic at some point.

"Of Human Bondage" -Maugham

This book has a famous scene where the Phillip goes to Paris to study art; you get the impression that he isn't very good at painting and as time goes on he starts to recognize that his fellow students are not great painters either. After two years, he gradually builds up the courage to have one of his instructors look at all of his work and let him know whether or not he can achieve his goal of becoming great painter. After he receives a negative verdict he commits to a new life plan.

Comment author: Yvain 17 March 2009 12:38:02PM *  13 points [-]

I think modernist poetry is invested in the belief that there is something special about excellent modernist poems; that is, their structure produces emotions or enlightenment not found in random series of words, and modernist poets deserve high status because they can create structures with this emotion or enlightenment.

A competing hypothesis is that the arrangement of words in modernist poetry has no particular value at all, and that people who claim it has value are only doing so to gain status within the modernist poet community.

I think the important part of the Malley experiment was that the two hoaxers created their poems from randomly chosen phrases taken by opening books to random pages. If there's no way to distinguish a random collection of words from a great modernist poem, then people who can create "great modernist poems" aren't special and don't deserve high status, and it supports the hypothesis that people who claim to have been moved by modernist poetry are faking it to look highbrow.

But in reference to your point, I remember reading Lovecraft's poem "Nathicana" and being very impressed by it. I was astonished to discover a few years later that he wrote it as a parody of people who stick too much emotion into their poetry. I was only slightly mollified to learn I wasn't the only person who liked it and that it was often held up as an example of how a deliberately bad poem can sometimes be pretty good.

Comment author: Demosthenes 17 March 2009 05:30:31PM *  7 points [-]

Setting up this sort of experiment, especially in regard to poetry or other humanities topics, seems to be the overwhelming barrier.

We can take at face value that "Malley's" poems were created from phrases of a limited length selected at random (whatever that really means in this case) and then arranged in a random manner.

This setup would allow us to say that some modernist critics cannot distinguish a modernist poem written by a single person (although with possible allusions and cribbings) from one constructed with phrases less than a specified length from a specific pool of literature.

From what I have found on the affair, it is hard to see if there was much experimental design at all (a criticism that Sokal can share in):

"So, in a series of mischievous creative fugues, they gleaned lines from here and there, even from the American Armed Forces guide to mosquito infestation, and put it together in what they perceived to be a brilliant imitation of the new poetic genre. They dubbed the poet Ern Malley and to avoid the publishers seeking contact with him, they said that, like Keats, he had died young. They then invented his sister, Ethel, who “discovered” the poetry and decided to send it to Harris to judge it for literary merit." -(http://www.ernmalley.com/text_only.html)

In this specific case, we are stuck with two people who seemed to intentionally create a spoof of modernist poetry which is not a terrible representation of the genre. For a progressive journal to publishing something that was designed to make a strong attempt at passing as modernist poetry using the new technique of collage seems completely appropriate.

Does this seem like an adequate control poem for an experiment of this sort:

====

Night Piece

The swung torch scatters seeds
In the umbelliferous dark
And a frog makes guttural comment
On the naked and trespassing
Nymph of the lake.

The symbols were evident,
Though on park-gates
The iron birds looked disapproval
With rusty invidious beaks.

Among the water-lilies
A splash - white foam in the dark!
And you lay sobbing then
Upon my trembling intuitive arm

I suspect that a randomly generated poem from a large amount of source material would look significantly different. I tried out some google poem generators (which are probably not acceptable for this sort of experiment either), and the results weren't as nice <http://shawnrider.com/google/index.php?query=modernism&Submit=generate+poem>

In the end, problems with authorship and creation by collage are two of the widely recognized features of modernist poetry <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modernist_poetry_in_English>. The hoax seems to prove that some of modernist poetry's techniques are indeed effective.

I think your point about intentionally created spoofs like Nathicana coming out as good poetry drives home the point that these sorts of parodies aren't necessarily a good example of control poem construction.

Making these sorts of critiques brings in the distinction between being rational vs rationalizing <http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/09/rationalization.html>. If you already have a point you want to prove and proceed to construct a method whereby you'll prove it, it isn't truly rational. If you spend a long time working on experimental design and becoming curious about how these methods (structural analysis of myths or modernist poetry) succeed/fail vs a random smattering of words and ideas, then you can build some rational knowledge on the matter.

While I like the idea of the spot the fakes test, I think it would be difficult to come up with good examples where the experimental design really leads to interesting conclusions with the scope of the project.

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