We know that the first researcher is able to successfully predict the results of experiment. We don't know that about the second researcher. Therefore I would bet on the first researcher prediction (but only assuming other things being equal).

Then we'll do the experiment and know for sure.

Eliezer,

Could you elaborate a little bit more about the danger of inventing AGI by the large crowd of mediocre researchers?

Why would it be more dangerous than AGI break-through made in a single lab?

From my perspective -- the more people are involved in the invention -- the safer it is for the whole society.