Comment author: WrongBot 09 August 2010 09:00:34PM 5 points [-]

The easy solution is to stop arguing about the definition of evidence. This community uses it to mean one thing, you're using it to mean something else, and any sort of conflict goes away as soon as people make clear which definition they're using. Since this community already has an accepted definition, you would be safe in assuming that that definition is what other posters here have in mind when they use the word "evidence". By the same token, you should probably find a more precise way to refer to the definition of evidence that you are using in order to avoid being misinterpreted.

Comment author: Dpar 09 August 2010 09:18:58PM 0 points [-]

That's fair enough. However, judging by what I've read, this community's definition of evidence seems to constitute just about anything ever written about anything. How would you then differentiate evidence, from rumor, hearsay, speculation, etc.?

Comment author: Unknowns 09 August 2010 08:12:18PM 3 points [-]

There may be sense in which this is common sense, but you were purposely using it tendentiously, which is why people responded in the technical way that they did.

Eliezer said that he read something "somewhere", obviously intending to say that he read it somewhere that he considered trustworthy at the time, not in a fairy tale.

Comment author: Dpar 09 August 2010 08:56:39PM 0 points [-]

Well, what can I say? I simply don't consider the vague recollection of reading something somewhere credible evidence of anything, and I stand by that. However, the amount of people that took issue with this statement did open my eyes to the fact that the definition of word "evidence" is not as clear cut as I thought it to be. Not sure if there's any way to resolve this difference of opinion though.

Comment author: Cyan 09 August 2010 08:07:04PM *  5 points [-]

So you would then agree that merely the fact that something is written SOMEWHERE, does not automatically qualify it as evidence?

You have to specify what it purports to be evidence of before I can give you an answer that isn't a tangent.

Edited to add: Maybe I can do better than the above sentence. I affirm that the existence of this book is negligible but not strictly zero evidence for the claims detailed therein.

Comment author: Dpar 09 August 2010 08:52:12PM -3 points [-]

At this point I'm not sure what we can do other than agree to disagree. I do not consider a random article from an obscure source on the internet to be evidence of anything.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 09 August 2010 08:11:46PM 2 points [-]

Immediate observation is only that something is written. That it's also true is a theoretical hypothesis about that immediate observation. That what you are reading is a fairy tale is evidence against the things written there being true, so the theory that what's written in a fairy tale is true is weak. On the other hand, the fact that you observe the words of a given fairy tale is strong evidence that the person (author) whose name is printed on the cover really existed.

Comment author: Dpar 09 August 2010 08:47:35PM -2 points [-]

All that is indisputably true. But you didn't really answer my question on whether or not you give enough consideration to what's written in a fairy tale (not whether or not it's written, not who it's written by, but the actual claims made therein) to truly consider it evidence to be incorporated into or excluded from your model of the world.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 09 August 2010 08:25:58PM *  1 point [-]

When a belief (hypothesis) is about reality, it responds to new evidence, or arguments about previously known evidence. It's reasonable to expect that as a result, some beliefs will turn out incorrect, and some certainly correct. Either way it's not a problem: you do learn things about the world as a result, whatever the conclusion. You learn that there are no ghosts, but there are rainbows.

The problem are the beliefs that purport to be speaking about reality, but really don't, and so you become deceived by them. Not being connected to reality through anticipated experience, they take your attention where there is no use for them, influence your decisions for no good reason, and protect themselves by ignoring any knowledge about the world you obtain.

It is a great heuristic to treat any beliefs that don't translate into anticipated experience with utmost suspicion, or even to run away from them in horror.

Comment author: Dpar 09 August 2010 08:47:13PM 0 points [-]

How would you learn that there are no ghosts? You form the belief "there are ghosts" which leads to the anticipated experience (by your definition of such) that "I will read about ghosts in a book", you go and read about ghosts in a book. Criteria met, belief validated. Same goes for UFOs, psychics, astrology etc. What value does the concept of anticipated experience have if it fails to filter out even the most common fallacious beliefs?

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 09 August 2010 08:05:55PM 1 point [-]

It does contradict that assertion, but not at first approximation, and not in the sense you took the issue with. You have to be very careful if a belief doesn't translate into anticipated experience. Beliefs about historical facts that don't translate into anticipated experience (or don't follow from past experience, that is observations) are usually invalid.

Comment author: Dpar 09 August 2010 08:17:30PM 0 points [-]

You seem to place a good deal of value on the concept of anticipated experience, but you give it a definition that's so broad that the overwhelming majority of beliefs will meet the criteria. If the belief in ghosts for instance can lead to the anticipated experience of reading about them in a book, what validity does the notion have as a means of evaluating beliefs?

Comment author: Cyan 09 August 2010 07:58:18PM *  3 points [-]

When I pick up a work of fiction, I do not spend time assessing its veracity. If I read a book of equally fantastic claims which purports to be true, I do spend a little time. You might want to peruse bounded rationality for an overview.

Comment author: Dpar 09 August 2010 08:02:14PM -1 points [-]

So you would then agree that merely the fact that something is written SOMEWHERE, does not automatically qualify it as evidence?

(Incidentally that is my original point, which in spite of seeming as common sense as common sense can be, has attracted a surprising amount of disagreement.)

Comment author: jimrandomh 09 August 2010 07:39:10PM *  7 points [-]

Let's not get bogged down in the specific procedure of getting to Oz. My point was that if you truly adapt merely seeing something written somewhere as your standard for evidence, you commit yourself to analyzing and weighing the merits of EVERYTHING you read about EVERYWHERE.

No, you can acknowledge that something is evidence while also believing that it's arbitrarily weak. Let's not confuse the practical question of how strong evidence has to be before it becomes worth the effort to use it ("standard of evidence") with the epistemic question of what things are evidence at all. Something being written down, even in a fairy tale, is evidence for its truth; it's just many orders of magnitude short of the evidential strength necessary for us to consider it likely.

Comment author: Dpar 09 August 2010 07:53:50PM 0 points [-]

Vladimir, Cyan, and jimrandomh, since you essentially said the same thing, consider this reply to be addressed to all three of you.

Answer me honestly, when reading a fairy tale, do you really stop to consider what's written there, qualify its worth as evidence, and compare it to everything else you know that might contradict it, before making the decision that the probability of the fairy tale being true is extremely low? Do you really not just dismiss it offhand as not true without a second thought?

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 09 August 2010 07:32:56PM 2 points [-]

See this comment on the first part of your question and this page on the second (but, again, there are valid beliefs that don't translate into anticipated experience).

Comment author: Dpar 09 August 2010 07:43:06PM 0 points [-]

I agree wholeheartedly that there are valid beliefs that don't translate into anticipated experience. As a matter of fact what's written there was pretty much the exact point that I was trying to make with my very first response in this topic.

Does that not, however, contradict the OP's assertion that "Every guess of belief should begin by flowing to a specific guess of anticipation, and should continue to pay rent in future anticipations. If a belief turns deadbeat, evict it."? That's what I took issue with to begin with.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 09 August 2010 07:29:03PM 2 points [-]

The fact that something is really written is true; whether it implies that the written statements themselves are true is a separate theoretical question. Yes, ideally you'd want to take into account everything you observe in order to form an accurate idea of future expected events (observable or not). Of course, it's not quite possible, but not for the want of motivation.

Comment author: Dpar 09 August 2010 07:36:30PM 0 points [-]

Well I didn't think I needed to clarify that I'm not questioning whether or not something that's written is really written. Of course, I'm questioning the truthfulness of the actual statement.

Or not so much it's truthfulness, but rather whether or not it can be considered evidence. Though I realize that you take issue with arguing over word definitions, to me the word evidence has certain meaning that goes beyond every random written sentence, whisper or rumor that you encounter.

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