Less Wrong is a community blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality. Please visit our About page for more information.

Comment author: Dreaded_Anomaly 01 January 2017 07:55:53AM 0 points [-]

There was a correlation if she plotted the high-traffic times to the incidents … No. This was wrong. She was looking at it the wrong way. They didn’t just need to look at when things had happened. They needed to look at all the times Medina had seen similar conditions—high traffic, large-mass ships, mistuned reactors—and nothing had gone wrong.

– Naomi Nagata in "Babylon's Ashes" by James S. A. Corey

Comment author: Dreaded_Anomaly 25 June 2015 06:30:00PM 10 points [-]

A few brief supplements to your introduction:

The source of the generated image is no longer mysterious: Inceptionism: Going Deeper into Neural Networks

ANN-generated images

But though the above is quite fascinating and impressive, we should also keep in mind the bizarre false positives that a person can generate: Images that fool computer vision raise security concerns

ANN false positives

Comment author: Algon 12 April 2015 07:28:46AM 0 points [-]

Thanks. That may turn out to be useful. By the way, is Zvi somehow involved with Metamed, or just medically knowledgeable?

Comment author: Dreaded_Anomaly 12 April 2015 04:07:21PM 1 point [-]

Zvi is their CEO.

Comment author: shminux 11 April 2015 08:32:01PM 1 point [-]

MetaMed used to offer custom medical research and advice, but they appear defunct.

Comment author: Dreaded_Anomaly 12 April 2015 05:40:53AM 2 points [-]

I find their site on the wayback machine as recently as March 22, 2015. OP could also try PMing user:Zvi.

Comment author: Dreaded_Anomaly 05 April 2015 03:40:23AM 1 point [-]

My view of nutrition is basically option 2. "Nutrition science" as it exists today seems to be primarily an attempt to study subtle, complex effects using small, poorly-controlled samples. There are basic facts about nutrients that are fairly well supported, but I have never become convinced of the superiority of any "diet" based on the supposed evidence for it.

Comment author: TrE 14 March 2015 04:56:55AM 6 points [-]

Although honestly, what kind of idiot had the idea to order the date mm/dd/yyyy?

Comment author: Dreaded_Anomaly 14 March 2015 02:51:43PM 1 point [-]

That order is based on the increasing size of the sets of possible values, of course.

Comment author: Dreaded_Anomaly 01 March 2015 06:13:51AM 4 points [-]

Here is a suggestion that I haven't seen yet. I don't think it constitutes a full plan by itself, but it fits the form of an AI box experiment with Harry as the AI.

Harry and Voldemort's discussion about testing his horcrux 2.0 spell by offering immortality to one of his friends (read: minions, in his case) revealed a weakness, that Voldemort is heavily biased against certain ways of thinking. Harry should remind him of this in the context of the Patronus 2.0 spell. The fact that Harry was able to discover a new (and incredibly powerful, as we have seen) form of magic simply by having the right mindset may indicate that certain mindsets are key to discovering deeper secrets of magic as a whole. (I'm envisioning here, as may or may not be canon, magic as an API for tapping into the power of Atlantis.) Voldemort has a known interest in the deeper secrets of magic, and for this reason he should keep Harry alive, or risk losing access to mindsets he currently can't fathom.

Comment author: Lumifer 26 February 2015 03:52:55PM 1 point [-]

Kepler's heliocentric theory is a direct result of Newtonian mechanics and gravitation

Not for Kepler who lived about a century before Newton.

My question was about the Copernicus - Kepler debates and Newtonian mechanics were quite unknown at that point.

Comment author: Dreaded_Anomaly 27 February 2015 02:57:17AM -1 points [-]

Even Kepler's theory expressed as his three separate laws is much simpler than a theory with dozens of epicycle.

Comment author: Lumifer 24 February 2015 04:35:31PM 1 point [-]

Heh. I think you're trying to generalize a narrow result way too much. Especially when we are not talking about compression ratios, but things like "explanatory power" which is quite different from getting to the shortest bit string.

Let's take a real example which was discussed on the LW recently: the heliocentrism debates in Renaissance Europe, for example between Copernicus and Kepler, pre-Galileo (see e.g. here). Show me how the MML theory is relevant to this choice between two competing theories.

Comment author: Dreaded_Anomaly 26 February 2015 06:17:28AM -1 points [-]

Kepler's heliocentric theory is a direct result of Newtonian mechanics and gravitation, equations which can be encoded very simply and require few parameters to achieve accurate predictions for the planetary orbits. Copernicus' theory improved over Ptolemy's geocentric theory by using the same basic model for all the planetary orbits (instead of a different model for each) and naturally handling the appearance of retrograde motion. However, it still required numerous epicycles in order to make accurate predictions, because Copernicus constrained the theory to use only perfect circular motion. Allowing elliptical motion would have made the basic model slightly more complex, but would have drastically reduced the amount of necessary parameters and corrections. That's exactly the tradeoff described by MML.

Comment author: Lumifer 23 February 2015 06:16:02PM 1 point [-]

This is a strict conclusion of information theory.

Could you demonstrate this, please?

Comment author: Dreaded_Anomaly 24 February 2015 04:56:52AM -1 points [-]

The linked Wikipedia page provides a succinct derivation from Shannon and Bayes' Theorem.

View more: Next