Sooooo it turns out that Taste of Chicago is not open on Sundays. My bad. We'll be going to Pastazios Pizza instead. Address is 5026 Addison Circle, Addison, TX 75001.

I am a maybe. How will I know who you are?

Survey taken

Complexity means it requires additional things to happen even if you had no evidence.

For example, a more complex hypothesis than "Bob is a human" is "Bob is a human who lives at 123 Fake St."

Voldemort being called the dark lord is evidence, and learning about new evidence does not itself make a hypothesis more or less complex. It's just evidence.

complexity penalty

This is a misuse of jargon.

In addition to the rot13'd reason:

It's true in Canon.

Voldemort is the only one with a plausible motive to want Bellatrix Black out of Azkaban.

Quirrel drops a bunch of hints directly:

He says he has resolved his parental issues to his satisfaction, and he says they were killed by Voldemort.

After he got what he needed from the Muggle martial arts dojo, Voldemort comes along and destroys it. Later, when discussing the chamber of secrets with Harry, he mentioned that Voldemort would not leave an important source of power lying around for anybody else to use it, so he probably killed Slytherin's creature.

He tells his whole defense class that he used to want to be a dark Lord.

He tried to become the ruler of magical England by setting himself up as "David Monroe" against Voldemort. Later, once Harry wants to stop being stuck in Hogwarts, he suggests pretending to be Voldemort to set Harry up as a hero everyone else depends on.

He doesn't want Dumbledore to know whom he really is.

At the end of the Azkaban arc, it turns out that is a very large number of identities, so it's not particularly implausible to think that he is Voldemort too.

It's also possible that Voldemort/Quirrell isn't Riddle.

Three shall be Peverell's sons and three their devices by which Death shall be defeated. - chapter 96

The one with the power to vanquish the Dark Lord approaches, born to those who have thrice defied him, born as the seventh month - - chapter 86

There has previously been some speculation that the dark lord in Harry's birth prophesy is death rather than Voldemort. I think this interpretation just got a lot stronger.

James and Lilly had defied Voldemort but not death. The new lines back an interpretation that the Peverells thrice defied death with the three deathly hollows and Harry is born to the Peverell line.

This is, in some ways, a more natural interpretation of that clause since James and Lilly were in the Order and were defying Voldemort on a daily basis not just 3 times. The line of the Peverells makes the number three make sense rather than being arbitrary.

At the summit, I gave a talk on community building. One of my main thesis was that I think it's actually better to do a rationality/self-improvement club that is also an Effective Altruism club than an EA club that's also a rationality club. You'll get people who don't just self identify as world savers (and who can, over time, be influenced by the world savers)

The self-imp/rationality group I run begins sessions by talking about our successes from the previous week, and ends with setting goals from the previous week. This means the thing that gets positively reinforced via social pressure is actually doing things, whereas with EA it's easy to simply reward signaling.

Just took my second survey. Been lurking a while now, this is my first comment.