Comment author: jsalvatier 11 June 2011 07:51:33PM 3 points [-]

First off, some context: this post is a submission for a contest I and others sponsored.

What you have written is a useful LW post, but I do not think it fills the requirements of the contest. In case it is not clear: I do not want to come across as an enemy; I bear you no ill feelings. I have decided that the original format of the contest was poorly chosen for the reasons , and I am going to restart the contest using a more traditional format. If you feel treated unfairly, please email me and we will arranged a video chat to discuss it (my email is my username at gmail.com).

My concerns in the order I noted them:

  • Your introduction seems a bit odd and confusing. I think it would have been significantly clearer to directly address the prize you were responding to and the purpose of the post.
  • You only cite one academic source (granted that it's a survey paper). How hard did you look for other academic sources? You don't mention this.
  • You don't explain the structure of the evidence: for example you might have said something like " there is quite a bit of related old academic research and one new literature review but little ongoing research. There is a good amount of both older and ongoing non-academic research"
  • your quoted equations look like they mean R = e - d t instead of R = exp(-dt)
  • you don't seem to address several of my questions. In all cases it is perfectly OK to say something like 'academic research does not seem to address the question of X. non-academic research and writing has Y to say about the issue' (when it's true anyway). If there is no good evidence on a particular topic, I'd like to know about that. My questions were:
    • What spacing is best? (you do address this significantly; I would have also liked to hear about quantitative discussion about how large spacing should be (if there was any))
    • How much does spaced repetition actually help memory? (I see your anecdotal evidence, which is good, but I would also like to hear about any non-anecdotal evidence)
    • Does spaced repetition have hidden benefits or costs? (no discussion, but maybe not a good question)
    • Does the effectiveness vary across domains? How much? (no discussion)
    • Is there research on the kinds of questions that work best? (some discussion of non-academic research, but no mention of academic research)
    • What questions do researchers think are most important? (no discussion)
    • Is there any interesting ongoing research? If so, what is it on? (no discussion)
    • What, if any, questions do researchers think it is important to answer? Are there other unanswered questions that would jump out at a smart person? (no discussion)
    • What does spaced repetition not do that people might expect it to? (no discussion)
Comment author: Duke 11 June 2011 08:38:24PM *  2 points [-]

I think it is unfair of you to post a public critique of my submission since this is a contest. I have effectively been penalized for being first. Every submission that follows will have the benefit of seeing this critique.

I am also concerned that you have decided to change the contest format immediately following my submission. In my estimation, you had either already decided to change the format prior to my submission (clearly a major disadvantage to me), or you decided to change the format based on my submission, which, again, effectively penalizes me for being first.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 10 June 2011 11:16:26AM 24 points [-]

This all still sounds nifty, but, I'll repeat, why worry about memorizing when I'll never be tested for a grade and can access knowledge nearly instantaneously?

If a piece of information isn't accessible for your mind, you can't notice unexpected connections between things.

For instance, some time ago I came up with the hypothesis that happiness might be an evolutionary mechanism that made us take more risks when we had spare resources and could risk doing so. But as someone pointed out, the opposite interpretation sounds just as plausible, if not more so. That is, when you have lots of resources you should concentrate on not losing them, and when you have few, you should take more risks until you're in safer waters.

Now, later on I ran across an article with research about how moods affect our decision-making. Happy moods are related with heuristic, "business as usual" kind of decision-making; sadness triggers a more systematic analysis of the situation. That seems more in line with the interpretation that's opposite to my original one.

Now, "happy moods are linked with heuristic processing, sad moods with systematic" is a piece of trivia. But it happens that this piece of trivia helps tremendously in evaluating my original hypothesis. Had I read that article earlier, and memorized that piece of trivia, I might have gotten my hypothesis right from the get-go.

For that matter, a lot of novel hypotheses seem to basically just involve the putting together of a large number of trivia. Somebody learns of one thing, and then of another seemingly unrelated thing, and then of a third thing, and then she notices the general pattern connecting all of them and formulates it out loud. But this requires that all of those trivia pieces are actually in your head, so that your brain can find the connections. If you need to know three different pieces of trivia in order to solve the problem, the fact that you could look them up at will doesn't help if it never occurs to you that these are the ones you should be looking at.

My intuition is that we should be spending much more time memorizing trivia than we are. Not stuff like state capitals, obviously, but possibly useful details from whatever fields of knowledge we're interested in and might want to contribute to.

Comment author: Duke 10 June 2011 03:19:28PM 4 points [-]

I agree with all of this. Maybe it doesn't come across clearly in my post, but I tried to differentiate between rank trivia and applicable knowledge, such as cognitive biases, decision theory concepts, logical fallacies, stuff you listed, etc. I don't know what exactly differentiates applicable knowledge with near-worthless trivia, however.

Comment author: Alicorn 10 June 2011 12:23:42AM 5 points [-]

Can an admin please format this? It was pasted from open office. I tried tweeking the HTML but I can't get it to work.

Hope I managed what you had in mind. I had to manually re-insert your links, so you may want to check and see I got them all.

Comment author: Duke 10 June 2011 04:01:31AM 0 points [-]

I was trying to avoid re-inserting the links, so thanks so much for your time!

Memory, Spaced Repetition and Life

13 Duke 10 June 2011 12:07AM

I have made the case that with the advent of the internet went the need to memorize anything. Why worry about memorizing when I'll never be tested for a grade and can access knowledge nearly instantaneously? As well, I reasoned, I have probably already memorized everything I need to. I focused my time instead on learning thinking techniques, such as Bayesian calculations, expected value calculations and various things for improving emotional control.

But after reading this a couple months back I decided to experiment with Anki, a digital flashcard program which exploits a cognitive phenomenon called the Spacing Effect by implementing a memorization technique called Spaced Repetition. The Spacing Effect is the widely observed tendency for people to recall information better when studied a few times over a long period than when studied many times over a short period. Balota et al (2007):

continue reading »
Comment author: Duke 09 June 2011 06:58:41PM *  1 point [-]
Comment author: Duke 07 June 2011 06:05:56PM 1 point [-]

I am working on this vigorously and expect to produce a submitted product soon. Proceed at your own risk if you are considering competing for this prize.

Comment author: gwern 07 June 2011 04:19:00PM 0 points [-]

Why do you care if it is done to your satisfaction when the prize is awarded based on other's satisfaction with it?

Why do I care... what I care? Seriously?

But I do agree with your expected utility calculations. The problem is, I can't motivate myself to write under conditions of uncertainty like that. I understand that shouldn't matter, especially since I consider such a project worthwhile even in the absence of $155, but it does.

Comment author: Duke 07 June 2011 04:40:57PM 1 point [-]

Getting it done to other's satisfaction and getting it done to your own are not mutually exclusive. You can work quickly to win the prize and then go back and expand.

Comment author: gwern 07 June 2011 02:25:21PM 4 points [-]

I'd like to work on this (be paid to substantially improve my http://www.gwern.net/Mnemosyne ? Where's the downside?), but you ask hard questions which would require a lot of research to be done to my satisfaction and during which I could be scooped. I'm not sure a race is the best way to run this.

Comment author: Duke 07 June 2011 03:18:01PM 2 points [-]

Why do you care if it is done to your satisfaction when the prize is awarded based on other's satisfaction with it?

This is an expected value problem. Decide how much a unit of your time is worth, how much time you are willing to invest and then (the hard part) estimate your likelihood for success.

So, if you value your time at $10/hr, are willing to invest 10 hours and estimate you will win the $155 X% of the time then we get this equation:

P(winning)$amount won - P(losing)$amount not won = initial investment

x$155 - (1-x)$0 = $10/hr * 10 hours

solve for x

x = 64.5%, in other words, to "break even" you need to be sure that if you invest 10 hours of your time in this project that you will win it at least 64.5% of the time.

A race may not be the best way to run this for you, since I suspect that you value your time a high rate relative to the potential payoff. But someone who values their time less (or is more productive than you per unit time) may think a race is a wonderful idea.

Comment author: Duke 07 June 2011 12:36:39PM 1 point [-]

I am an Anki user and I am interested in working on this project.

Comment author: D_Malik 04 June 2011 06:43:02PM 3 points [-]

Whoa. I have also been vegan for a few years. You might want to look into creatine (which boosts intelligence, especially in vegans) and IF/CR if you haven't already.

Have you ever tried recording what you eat to see how the nutrients add up? I might try something like what you're describing in a few years.

Comment author: Duke 05 June 2011 10:39:57PM 1 point [-]

While for a couple periods I counted my calories, measuring nutrients--either of the food or my own--is a low priority for me. If I could afford to pay someone to do these things for me I wouldn't hesitate. I'm content for now with this simple reasoning: How bad could it be to eat only fruits and vegetables? Plus, I can alter the diet in a moment if needed.

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