Donated max, thanks for writing this up!
1Responding to your parenthetical, the downside of that approach is that the discussion would not be recorded for posterity!
Regarding the original question, I am curious if this could work for a country whose government spending was small enough, e.g. 2-3% of GDP. Maybe the most obvious issue is that no government would be disciplined enough to keep their spending at that level. But it does seem sort of elegant otherwise.
I'm afraid I'm sceptical that you methodology licenses the conclusions you draw. You state that you pushed people away from "using common near-synonyms like awareness or experience" and "asked them to instead describe the structure of the consciousness process, in terms of moving parts and/or subprocesses".
Isn't this just the standard LessWrong-endorsed practice of tabooing words, and avoiding semantic stopsigns?
Default seems unlikely, unless the market moves very quickly, since anyone pursuing this strategy is likely to be very small compared to the market for the S&P 500.
(Also consider that these pay out in a scenario where the world gets much richer — in contrast to e.g. Michael Burry's "Big Short" swaps, which paid out in a scenario where the market was way down — so you're just skimming a little off the huge profits that others are making, rather than trying to get them to pay you at the same time they're realizing other losses.)
It doesn't differentially help capitalize them compared to everything else though, right? (Especially since some of them are private.)
With which model?
Use the most powerful AI tools.
FWIW, Claude 3.5 Sonnet was released today. Appears to outperform GPT-4o on most (but not all) benchmarks.
Donated max again. Thank you!