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So if it's difficult to get amazing trustworthy work out of a machine actress playing an Eliezer-level intelligence doing a thousand years worth of thinking, your proposal to have AIs do our AI alignment homework fails on the first step, it sounds like?
So the "IQ 60 people controlling IQ 80 people controlling IQ 100 people controlling IQ 120 people controlling IQ 140 people until they're genuinely in charge and genuinely getting honest reports and genuinely getting great results in their control of a government" theory of alignment?
I don't think you can train an actress to simulate me, successfully, without her going dangerous. I think that's over the threshold for where a mind starts reflecting on itself and pulling itself together.
I'm not saying that it's against thermodynamics to get behaviors you don't know how to verify. I'm asking what's the plan for getting them.
One of the most important projects in the world. Somebody should fund it.
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2Can you tl;dr how you go from "humans cannot tell which alignment arguments are good or bad" to "we justifiably trust the AI to report honest good alignment takes"? Like, not with a very large diagram full of complicated parts such that it's hard to spot where you've messed up. Just whatever simple principle you think lets you bypass GIGO.
Eg, suppose that in 2020 the Open Philanthropy Foundation would like to train an AI such that the AI would honestly say if the OpenPhil doctrine of "AGI in 2050" was based on groundless thinking ultimately driven by social conformity. However, OpenPhil is not allowed to train their AI based on MIRI. They have to train their AI entirely on OpenPhil-produced content. How does OpenPhil bootstrap an AI which will say, "Guys, you have no idea when AI shows up but it's probably not that far and you sure can't rely on it"? Assume that whenever OpenPhil tries to run an essay contest for saying what they're getting wrong, their panel of judges ends up awarding the prize to somebody reassuringly saying that AI risk is an even smaller deal than OpenPhil thinks. How does OpenPhil bootstrap from that pattern of thumbs-up/thumbs-down to an AI that actually has better-than-OpenPhil alignment takes?
Broadly speaking, the standard ML paradigm lets you bootstrap somewhat from "I can verify whether this problem was solved" to "I can train a generator to solve this problem". This applies as much to MIRI as OpenPhil. MIRI would also need some nontrivial secret amazing clever trick to gradient-descend an AI that gave us great alignment takes, instead of seeking out the flaws in our own verifier and exploiting those.
What's the trick? My basic guess, when I see some very long complicated paper that doesn't explain the key problem and key solution up front, is that you've done the equivalent of an inventor building a sufficiently complicated perpetual motion machine that their mental model of it no longer tracks how conservation laws apply. (As opposed to the simpler error of their explicitly believing that one particular step or motion locally violates a conservation law.) But if you've got a directly explainable trick for how you get great suggestions you can't verify, go for it.
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1You seem confused about my exact past position. I was arguing against EAs who were like, "We'll solve AGI with policy, therefore no doom." I am not presently a great optimist about the likelihood of policy being an easy solution. There is just nothing else left.
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1(I affirm this as my intended reading.)
It certainly bears upon AI, but it bears that way by making a point about the complexity of a task rather than talking about an intelligent mechanism which is purportedly aligned on that task. It does this by talking about an unintelligent mechanism, which is meant to be a way of talking about the task itself rather than any particular machine for doing it.
Cool. What's the actual plan and why should I expect it not to create machine Carissa Sevar? I agree that the Textbook From The Future Containing All The Simple Tricks That Actually Work Robustly enables the construction of such an AI, but also at that point you don't need it.