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Comment author: MaryCh 18 November 2017 06:00:09PM 0 points [-]

but surely a normal person who makes a list of about 50 items can't update daily? they have stuff to do.

Comment author: Elo 18 November 2017 07:01:27PM 0 points [-]

No. But they are probably not each as important as each other. And you can update without writing down the beliefs.

Comment author: MaryCh 18 November 2017 05:09:43PM 0 points [-]

(btw, just thought to ask the people here who have thought about logging their predictions about the year 2018 around the end of December: How do you decide how much time you need before you settle on a prediction? I mean, if making a list on December, 31st is just a common point in time when to state your current state of knowledge, you have 364 days to come to it, but nobody takes so long.)

Comment author: Elo 18 November 2017 05:39:21PM 0 points [-]

Superforecasers (book) suggests updating regularly. Like daily if you think your predictions change.

Comment author: curi 17 November 2017 09:05:21PM *  1 point [-]

What happened to NVC (Non-Violent Communication)? Your comments are purely intended to hurt me.

Comment author: Elo 17 November 2017 09:36:00PM 1 point [-]

No. That's your interpretation. You have agency too to interpret what I say with clarity. You also value bold conjecture. So that's again your problem to work out what I mean and how to apply it.

Comment author: curi 17 November 2017 08:03:44PM 0 points [-]

Why?

Comment author: Elo 17 November 2017 08:30:22PM 2 points [-]

a. virtue of silence

b. it's your job to work that out.

Comment author: curi 17 November 2017 06:43:18PM *  0 points [-]

Yeah, good points in both comments. Why don't you come to my forum where we'll appreciate them? :)

https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/fallible-ideas/info

Comment author: Elo 17 November 2017 06:58:27PM 0 points [-]

The virtue of silence is one of our 12 virtues here. That you don't know speaks to ignorance on your part. And perhaps on taking your own advice you might not have made this post at all. And maybe you would have learnt something instead.

Comment author: MaryCh 14 November 2017 09:32:09AM 0 points [-]

I don't quite get the difference between "any" and "every" (in the more interesting cases.) Does "every 2 out of 30 [things have this property]" mean the set of ordered twos as a whole thing (unlike "any 2 two out of 30", which is talking about any one combination of two things but not all possible combinations taken at once?

And if "every" needs some kind of order, even if we don't know which, and some kind of "presented-togetherness", then we can, for example, say, "[every two out of four] out of [every thirty out of thirty]", but I don't quite understand what it would say...

I mean, it doesn't have to be something trivial like "every apple out of thirty apples has a spot on its side", it can be something like "every node out of thirty is connected to another node". But even this second case does not quite fit. Are there even objects for which "every 2 out of 30" and "every 1 out of 30" are two distinct things?

(and negation is even worse.)

Comment author: Elo 14 November 2017 04:42:16PM 1 point [-]

(this may not help). It is the difference between, "each of..." and, "all of...".

"if we go through each of the set, one at a time..." "if we go through all of the set"

They can be made to mean the same.

Comment author: Elo 14 November 2017 02:54:20AM 0 points [-]

An alternative theory is that they were mentally damaged and were dumped after a few years when the parents decided they didn't want to raise them.

Comment author: username2 10 November 2017 01:49:58PM 0 points [-]

Sorry, I used the ambiguous term "traffic", meant "amount of new discussion/comments" rather than web traffic. were it not for curi's recent flurry there would almost be nothing here.

Comment author: Elo 10 November 2017 05:51:30PM 0 points [-]

I suspect that if curi were not talking, other people would be.

Comment author: Elo 09 November 2017 07:48:15AM 0 points [-]

There are paths forward but it's no one else's job to show them to you or help you find them.

The attitude of expectation is one that does not fit here and will not encourage anyone to help you. I also expect it runs into walls in other cultures too.

Comment author: edd91 03 November 2017 11:11:07PM 0 points [-]

I haven't been to a rationality dojo before but would like to attend, do we need to register or anything?

Comment author: Elo 05 November 2017 04:55:50AM 0 points [-]

No just show up

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