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Comment author: -necate- 25 March 2017 08:53:39AM 2 points [-]

Hello guys, I am currently writing my master's thesis on biases in the investment context. One sub-sample that I am studying is people who are educated about biases in a general context, but not in the investment context. I guess LW is the right place to find some of those so I would be very happy if some of you would participate since people who are aware about biases are hard to come by elsewhere. Also I explicitly ask for activity in the LW community in the survey, so if enough of LWers participate I could analyse them as an individual subsample. Would be interesting to know how LWers perform compared to psychology students for example. Also I think this is related enough to LW that I could post a link to the survey in discussion, right? If so I would be happy about some karma, because I just registered and cant post yet. The link to the survey is: https://survey.deadcrab.de/

Comment author: Elo 25 March 2017 09:12:19AM 0 points [-]

Look up a group called "the trading tribe" by Ed seykota.

Comment author: Viliam 24 March 2017 11:59:59PM *  2 points [-]

Okay, so I recently made this joke about future Wikipedia article about Less Wrong:

[article claiming that LW opposes feelings and support neoreaction] will probably be used as a "reliable source" by Wikipedia. Explanations that LW didn't actually "urge its members to think like machines and strip away concern for other people's feelings" will be dismissed as "original research", and people who made such arguments will be banned. Less Wrong will be officially known as a website promoting white supremacism, Roko's Basilisk, and removing female characters from computer games. This Wikipedia article will be quoted by all journals, and your families will be horrified by what kind of a monster you have become. All LW members will be fired from their jobs.

A few days later I actually looked at the Wikipedia article about Less Wrong:

In July 2010, LessWrong contributor Roko posted a thought experiment to the site in which an otherwise benevolent future AI system tortures simulations of those who did not work to bring the system into existence. This idea came to be known as "Roko's basilisk," based on Roko's idea that merely hearing about the idea would give the hypothetical AI system stronger incentives to employ blackmail. Yudkowsky deleted Roko's posts on the topic, calling it "stupid". Discussion of Roko's basilisk was banned on LessWrong for several years before the ban was lifted in October 2015.

The majority of the LessWrong userbase identifies as atheist, consequentialist, white and male.

The neoreactionary movement is associated with LessWrong, attracted by discussions on the site of eugenics and evolutionary psychology. In the 2014 self-selected user survey, 29 users representing 1.9% of survey respondents identified as "neoreactionary". Yudkowsky has strongly repudiated neoreaction.

Well... technically, the article admit that at least Yudkowsky considers the basilisk stupid, and disagrees with neoreaction. Connotationally, it suggests that basilisk and neoreaction are 50% of what is worth mentioning about LW, because that's the fraction of the article these topics got.

Oh, and David Gerard is actively editing this page. Why am I so completely unsurprised? His contributions include:

  • making a link to a separate article for Roko's basilisk (link), which luckily didn't materialize;
  • removing suggested headers "Rationality", "Cognitive bias", "Heuristic", "Effective altruism", "Machine Intelligence Research Institute" (link) saying that "all of these are already in the body text"; but...
  • adding a header for Roko's basilisk (link);
  • shortening a paragraph on LW's connection to effective altruism (link) -- by the way, the paragraph is completely missing from the current version of the article;
  • an edit war emphasising that it is finally okay to talk on LW about the basilisk (link, link, link, link, link);
  • restoring the deleted section on basilisk (link) saying that it's "far and away the single thing it's most famous for";
  • adding neoreaction as one of the topics discussed on LW (link), later removing other topics competing for attention (link), and adding a quote that LW "attracted some readers and commenters affiliated with the alt-right and neoreaction, that broad cohort of neofascist, white nationalist and misogynist trolls" (link);

...in summary, removing or shortening mentions of cognitive biases and effective altruism, and adding or developing mentions of basilisk and neoreaction.


EDIT: So, looking back at my prediction that...

Less Wrong will be officially known as a website promoting white supremacism, Roko's Basilisk, and removing female characters from computer games.

...I'd say I was (1) right about the basilisk; (2) partially right about the white supremacism, which at this moment is not mentioned explicitly (yet! growth mindset), but the article says that the userbase is mostly white and male, and discusses eugenics; and (3) wrong about the computer games. 50% success rate!

Comment author: Elo 25 March 2017 12:45:18AM 0 points [-]

can we fix this please?

Edit: I will work on it.

In response to Act into Uncertainty
Comment author: Elo 24 March 2017 09:47:17PM 0 points [-]

make your beliefs pay rent perhaps?

In response to LW UI issue
Comment author: Elo 24 March 2017 09:07:46PM 4 points [-]

this is known, and not on purpose. It's being worked on.

Comment author: username2 24 March 2017 11:06:18AM 0 points [-]

Something happened to the mainpage. It no longer contains links to Main and Discussion.

Comment author: Elo 24 March 2017 12:14:36PM 0 points [-]

yes, we are working on it.

Comment author: username2 23 March 2017 02:57:08PM 0 points [-]

Won't that be a lot of work ? As far as I know discord doesnt bridge to xmpp so that means you ll have to write a bot or use one already written. Same goes for other closed protocols. That s a lot of work. I don t want to dissapoint you but in the end what makes you think people will hang out in public channels ? ( I apologise if I missed something )

Comment author: Elo 23 March 2017 10:19:35PM 0 points [-]

protocol is now going to be based on matrix.

Comment author: turchin 23 March 2017 11:12:46AM 4 points [-]

Link on "discussion" disappeared from the lesswrong.com. Is it planned change? Or only for me?

Comment author: Elo 23 March 2017 11:31:11AM 2 points [-]

Accidental css pull that caused unusual things. It's being worked on. Apologies.

Comment author: Elo 23 March 2017 01:00:59AM 6 points [-]

There are two kinds of fool. One says, “This is old, therefore it is good.” The other says, “This is new, therefore it is better.” https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/William_Ralph_Inge

I want to raise this:

Survivorship bias - Of a production line - the older things of a run that died in 6 months, don't exist 10-20 years later. The fridge that is still working 20 years later survived therefore we know about it, it's still around "going strong". And "they don't make them like this any more". Most of those early broken products don't get recorded or remembered.

Specifically on washing machines: They would usually have at least 5 years warranty. Warranties keep the standards up, because if they break in that time the manufacturer needs to repair or replace them.

Comment author: morganism 20 March 2017 08:50:51PM 1 point [-]

" the team reprogrammed lymphocytes (immune cells) from six entirely new bipolar patients, some of whom are known lithium responders. The team found the same hyperexcitability in the lymphocyte-derived neurons

"Although responders and nonresponders both produce more electrical impulses and spontaneous activity, when we look at the electrophysiological properties, the two groups are very different from each other."

The Salk team characterized the electrical firing patterns of all six patients' neuronal lines, measuring spike height, spike width, the threshold for evoking a reaction and other qualities. The overall patterns were noticeably different in responders versus nonresponders.

And machine learning :

"Wondering whether the differences could be predictive, the team trained a computer program to recognize the variations between the profiles of responders and nonresponders using the firing patterns of 450 total neurons over six independent training rounds. In each round, they started fresh with the neurons of five of the patients to train the system. They then tested the system with the neurons of the sixth patient, whose lithium status was known to the team but not to the program. They repeated the process five more times, which allowed them to build essentially six independent models. Each model was trained on the data from five out of the six patients, leaving a different patient out of the training data each time, and then letting the model classify this remaining patient as a responder or nonresponder. Using the firing patterns of just five of any patient's neurons, the system identified the person as a responder or nonresponder with 92 percent accuracy."

Comment author: Elo 20 March 2017 11:45:18PM 0 points [-]

incredibly limited data set, but a good start!

Comment author: username2 20 March 2017 05:42:47PM 0 points [-]

How does this work exactly ? I mean technologically. As far as I know Slack and Discord don't support bridges to each other.

Comment author: Elo 20 March 2017 11:27:32PM 0 points [-]

was going to be a matterbridge bot, but that had bugs that would not go away. Now it's going to be a custom xmpp protocol.

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