Comment author: TobyBartels 23 October 2014 07:07:14AM *  4 points [-]

I'd be much more comfortable answering the probability sections if I knew what epsilon is. I usually say 0% when the value is less than 0.5% and 100% when the value is greater than 99.5%, rounding to the nearest whole percentage, on the grounds that the whole point of using percentages is to avoid explicit fractions (common or decimal). But then you ruin this by explicitly mentioning 0.5% and 99.99% as possible answers. If you had put a hard limit on the number of digits allowed, then I could have used that. In the end, since I saw no consistent guidance, I fell back on my usual practice. The result is that I had a lot of 0s and 100s; hopefully that won't mess up your algorithms.

ETA: It is probably relevant here that I am a naturally lazy person.

Comment author: Elund 27 October 2014 01:25:05AM 0 points [-]

I don't think it will mess up the algorithms. My guess is that most people probably rounded most calibration answers to the tens place due to lack of enough confidence to be more precise, but since people are giving different values, the average across all respondents is unlikely to fall on an increment of ten, and should be a reasonably accurate measure of the respondents' collective assigned probability for a question.

Comment author: Sarunas 26 October 2014 09:07:22PM *  3 points [-]

I think it might have been better to ask people to estimate what are the odds that a given statement is true. If a probability of a statement is close to zero or close to one, it gives us better precision without having to worry about digits after the decimal point (however, if a probability is close to one half, it is probably better to ask for a probability). Although it is easy to convert odds to probabilities, how many people in this survey actually took the mental effort to remind themselves to calculate the odds first and only then to express them as probabilities? I might be wrong, but I guess that only a minority. An idea for the next year survey - it might be interesting to compare the answers of two groups, one of which would be asked to estimate probabilities, the other one to estimate the odds.

Comment author: Elund 27 October 2014 01:18:55AM 1 point [-]

Are you using "odds" to refer to percentages and "probabilities" to refer to fractions? I don't think there is actually any difference in meaning between the two terms.

Comment author: [deleted] 24 October 2014 03:12:06PM 4 points [-]

First thing I thought was ‘I'm not sure it's accurately calibrated’, but since we're measuring ratios it doesn't matter.

In response to comment by [deleted] on 2014 Less Wrong Census/Survey
Comment author: Elund 27 October 2014 01:00:33AM 2 points [-]

You can click "select your monitor dimension" to resize the ruler. The default they gave me was wrong. I actually suggest making the ruler even smaller than the authentic size, so that the distance between millimeters will be shorter and thus the ratio will be more precise.

Comment author: Jiro 23 October 2014 03:54:58PM 43 points [-]

Took the survey. However, my answer for the probability of MWI is "Since MWI makes the same predictions as the standard interpretation, asking for the probability of MWI is meaningless. It is like asking "this glass is 50% full of water. What is the probability that it is half empty? What is the probability that it is half full?" I put 0 for the MWI question, but I'm not sure what you want for that.

For some of the other probability questions, my answer is "I don't have enough information to come up with a good estimate, and I also don't have enough information to come up with a probability that takes into account my inability to come up with a good estimate". Again, I put 0.

Also, after the test, I'm starting to get worried how you anonymize the questions. Releasing the data without a name attached is not anonymization, if the answers people give are enough to identify them.

Comment author: Elund 27 October 2014 12:13:54AM *  0 points [-]

Putting 0 is misleading. It implies that you're confident there is no chance at all. If you're really not leaning one way or another, your best bet is to just put 50, or perhaps even skip the question if you really don't want to give a probability.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 26 October 2014 10:07:21PM 0 points [-]

Sure. If I pick the same spot I get the same results. Esp. with a photocopy. But at least the significant difference between left and right hand remains. Even when photocopying it makes a difference how strong you press your hand against the plate and how much contrast the scan has (for me it was too dark to make out the creases clearly).

Comment author: Elund 26 October 2014 10:45:49PM 1 point [-]

Maybe the corresponding fingers on your other hand really are different in length. Mine are. Whenever I press my fingers against each other such as to line up their bottom creases (keeping the orientation of the fingers as straight as possible), the middle and upper creases and fingertips don't line up. My right fingers are slightly shorter.

Good point about the photocopier. Hopefully these issues won't add too much noise to the results and obscure any significant results.

Comment author: 27chaos 23 October 2014 06:08:57PM 4 points [-]

You're assuming the answer I wrote down was an accurate name of a bone.

Comment author: Elund 26 October 2014 10:18:00PM 1 point [-]

Even then your subjective probability wouldn't have been exactly 0. You could have put 0.00000000001 or something like that. The instructions didn't forbid you from using long decimals. Even so, I think it would have been fine to put 0 if your subjective probability really was 0 or you felt like rounding down to it.

Comment author: jdgalt 26 October 2014 08:01:36PM 1 point [-]

Largest is ambiguous. It could mean longest, or largest volume (with or without counting the volume enclosed, if we're talking about the skull), or even heaviest.

Comment author: Elund 26 October 2014 10:11:58PM 0 points [-]

I think it means largest volume without counting the volume enclosed.

Comment author: rule_and_line 23 October 2014 05:46:38PM 47 points [-]

Done! Wish I had had a scanner handy going in, I'm curious about the digit ratio.

Comment author: Elund 26 October 2014 10:02:18PM 0 points [-]

I think it should be fine to just hold a ruler up to your finger. The only potential problem might be that the highest tip of your finger wouldn't actually touch the ruler, but if you don't want to estimate by sight you can hold another flat surface perpendicular to it to see where that touches the ruler. I get consistent measurements this way.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 23 October 2014 10:08:52PM 2 points [-]

For me its not even the second digit. Even left and right hand differ significantly. Copire doesn't make things really better (OK, the copier quality was low, much too dark).

Comment author: Elund 26 October 2014 09:50:37PM 0 points [-]

Agreed. Most rulers don't give measurements more precise than millimeters.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 23 October 2014 09:21:16PM *  47 points [-]

Took it.

EDIT: I was surprised to find the BEM test in it. I took it some time ago and it resulted in 65-70% F and 50-60% M (as far as I can see largely because of my strong and caring relationship to my children).

I didn't determine my digit-ratio during the test but did right now. I arrive at totally different values (between 0.91 and 1.05) depending and hand and exact points and the copier print reading gives still different values. My best guess is that it is somewhere around 0.96.

Comment author: Elund 26 October 2014 09:46:19PM 5 points [-]

I think you're supposed to measure from the middle of the bottom crease to the middle of the tip. Also, since the bottom crease itself can be about a millimeter or two wide, I measured from the middle of that crease by its width in addition to its length. When I do that I get consistent results even on repeated measurements.

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