= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
You can generate a random number in your head by generating several numbers unreliably and taking the sum mod X.
That works for some purposes but it is not truly random so it would be better to use a dice or other more random number if available. Of course, be realistic with getting random numbers. If the situation calls for a quickly thought decision, that works. If you have dice in your pocket go ahead and pull them out.
In response to
The True Prisoner's Dilemma
Why would you want to choose defect? If both criminals are rationalists that use the same logic than if you chose defect to hope to get a result of (d,c) than the result ends up being (d,d). However if you used the logic of lets choose c because if the other person is using this logic than we won't end up having the result of (d,d).
In response to
Planning Fallacy
13% of subjects finished their project by the time they had assigned a 50% probability level; 19% finished by the time assigned a 75% probability level; and only 45% (less than half!) finished by the time of their 99% probability level. As Buehler et. al. (2002) wrote, "The results for the 99% probability level are especially striking: Even when asked to make a highly conservative forecast, a prediction that they felt virtually certain that they would fulfill, students' confidence in their time estimates far exceeded their accomplishments."
I do agree that it is good to have a pessimistic view on projects over an optimistic view because then you will finishi sooner but if you have in mind that at best I will finish two weeks before the deadline and at worst the deadline day then you might be happier working on the project because you think to yourself that the project could be almost done. What is most important is to be honest about when you can be done because if you say that you might be done at a time that you for sure won't be done then you work on the project thinking inside your head that I will be finished later than I said. Optimistic vs. Pessimistic view is a balance between being happier and finishing sooner.
I am a new user, what did I get voted down for?
In response to
Planning Fallacy
13% of subjects finished their project by the time they had assigned a 50% probability level; 19% finished by the time assigned a 75% probability level; and only 45% (less than half!) finished by the time of their 99% probability level. As Buehler et. al. (2002) wrote, "The results for the 99% probability level are especially striking: Even when asked to make a highly conservative forecast, a prediction that they felt virtually certain that they would fulfill, students' confidence in their time estimates far exceeded their accomplishments."
I do agree that it is good to have a pessimistic view on projects over an optimistic view because then you will finishi sooner but if you have in mind that at best I will finish two weeks before the deadline and at worst the deadline day then you might be happier working on the project because you think to yourself that the project could be almost done. What is most important is to be honest about when you can be done because if you say that you might be done at a time that you for sure won't be done then you work on the project thinking inside your head that I will be finished later than I said. Optimistic vs. Pessimistic view is a balance between being happier and finishing sooner.
If the other player is choosing randomly between two numbers, you will have a 50% chance of guessing his choice correctly with any strategy whatsoever. It doesn't matter whether your strategy is random or not; you can choose the first number every time and you will still have exactly a 50% chance of getting it.
But you want to be purely unpredictable or the opponent( if they are a super ai) would gradually figure out your strategy and have a slightly better chance. A human(without tools) can't actully generate a random number. If your opponent was guessing a non-completely random number/ a "random" number in their head, then you want your choice to be random. I should have said if the opponent chooses a non-completely random number then you should randomly determine your number.
In response to
Lawful Uncertainty
IIRC, there exist minimax strategies in some games that are stochastic. There are some games in which it is in fact best to fight randomness with randomness.
Going into game theory, if an opponent makes a truly random decision between two numbers, and you win if you guess which number they guessed, that would be a time that you should fight randomness with randomness. There aren't a lot of other situations where randomness should be fought with randomness but in situations similar to that situation that is the right move.
In response to
Welcome to Less Wrong! (8th thread, July 2015)
I joined lesswrong because my friends suggested it to me. I really like all the articles and the fact that the comments on the articles are useful and don't have lots of bad language. This really surprised me.
But... you can already buy many items that are lethal if forcefully shoved down someone's throat. Knives, for example. It's not obvious to me that a lack of lethal drugs is currently preventing anyone from hurting people, especially since many already-legal substances are very dangerous to pour down someone's throat.
From the Overcoming Bias link, "risky buildings" seem to me the clearest example of endangering people other than the buyer.
I can see that, and I realize that there are advantages to having a store that can sell illegal things. I would now say that such a store would be benificial. There would have to be some restrictions to what that type of store could sell. Explosives like fireworks still could be for use by a licensed person, and nukes would not be sold at all.
In response to
Policy Debates Should Not Appear One-Sided
There is two problems with making stores that can sell banned things-hurting the public and people that are uneducated. I could go into one of these stores and buy poison and fill my brother's glass with it. That would be a drawback because it would affect my brother who did not go into a store and ignore a safety warning and pick up a bottle of poison and drink it. This would be a problem. An uneducated mother of five children that drinks poison doesn't deserve to die, her children don't deserve to be orphans, and that is asumming that she drinks it herself and doesn't give it to her children. Libertarians that say that making stores that can sell illegal goods is completely good and not bad at all is completely wrong. Very little if anything is gained by illegal goods being available to the public while the reasons I wrote above show that there is a drawback- someone who buys and drinks a can of poison does not deserve to die- the person could have been bullied, been driven insane buy a disease or by a drug that someone else tricked him into drinking or forced down his throat. In fact, such a drug might only be able to be purchased at such store.
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Note that always only citing one example easily gives the impression that it's the only example you know of, or of this being an isolated special case, so at least briefly mentioning the existence of others could be better.
It also is less reliable when you cite only one source because what that source says could be false(either intentionally or accidentally).