Eliezer seems to be taking a page from Alicorn's book. In Luminosity Alice is plagued by differing visions as Bella constantly changes her mind about her future, and then the actual future snaps into place when a final choice is made.
And I already remarked in the Luminosity thread that that makes no sense. It makes even less sense in a universe with time turners.
Why should the time of an ominous decision be so relevant to seers? Even if the consequences of the decision have a big impact on the future, that future already was the future. It's not like there is a default future before you make your decision and a different future afterwards, your decision itself would already be a part of the future of any earlier point in time. From a many worlds perspective you might have several different possible futures so your overall prospect of the future might significantly change after an important branching, but Harry's decision doesn't seem particularly influenced by recent random chance; it seems unlikely that from the perspective of 6 hours ago most future Harrys would make a completely different decision.
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 16, chapter 85
The next discussion thread is here.
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing chapter 85. The previous thread has long passed 500 comments. Comment in the 15th thread until you read chapter 85.
There is now a site dedicated to the story at hpmor.com, which is now the place to go to find the authors notes and all sorts of other goodies. AdeleneDawner has kept an archive of Author’s Notes. (This goes up to the notes for chapter 76, and is now not updating. The authors notes from chapter 77 onwards are on hpmor.com.)
The first 5 discussion threads are on the main page under the harry_potter tag. Threads 6 and on (including this one) are in the discussion section using its separate tag system. Also: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15.
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Ack. I can't believe it took me this long, but I think Quirrellmort's plan has finally fallen into place for me. Quirrellmort's primary goals are:
(1) Attain immortality. (2) Enjoy it.
But he believes a necessary means to those ends is:
(3) Kill Harry Potter.
When Quirrellmort first said that when he made his Evil Overlord list, he realized following it all the time would defeat the purpose of being a Dark Lord. I wondered if he was telling the truth about that. HPMOR is all about playing with things that don't make sense in traditional stories, and the fact the bad guy wants to rule the world in traditional stories is one of those things that rarely makes any sense. It's taken for granted that bad guys want to rule worlds, but why? Wouldn't it be a lot of work?
At first glance, though, having Quirrellmort not want to rule the world (or even just Magical Britain) would have done funny things to the dramatic tension of the story. Probably the story would end up being about whether Harry could think clearly enough to do utopia right, with Quirrellmort acting not as a traditional antagonist but more of a tempter-figure, trying to nudge Harry towards becoming a Dark Lord.
Now I've become convinced that Quirrellmort was very much telling the truth about deciding not to be a Dark Lord. Here's the thing, though: he still wants to be immortal. Remember the scene where Harry realizes that his mysterious dark side is terrified of death, and he needs to coddle it? If his dark side is a piece of Voldemort's soul, that's telling us that Voldemort is terrified of death.
And Voldemort has heard a prophecy saying that either he or Harry must die. He's absolutely terrified of death, so he's going to try to make sure it's Harry. He didn't intend to kill Harry on the Night of Godric's Hollow, but that's because he knew the part of the prophecy that said, "He will mark him as his equal." He realized if he tried to kill Harry directly, according to the prophecy something would go wrong, so he decided to first fulfill the part about marking Harry as his equal intentionally, and then figure out how to kill Harry in a way that nothing would go wrong.
For purposes of the story's plot, his central goal isn't any different than Canon!Voldemort's. Both are focused on killing Harry. But HPMOR!Voldemort, once he's done that, won't try to rule Magical Britain. He'll go off and do whatever the hell he feels like.
I wonder if maybe from '73-'81 Voldemort deliberately avoided winning the war, because he thought fighting a war would be more fun than actually trying to rule after you've won.
It's definitely not just that, otherwise he'd have tossed Harry a knut port key into an active volcano or the like. His plan seems to involve Harry's "dark side" taking permanent control (like he expected to be the case before he was surpised by the news that there was a separate dark side in the first place rather than just Harry sometimes pretending to be non-dark).
Yes. Exactly. That's my point.
(Not sure why you said this.)
(I lost track of what you were trying to argue, and the comment in isolation seemed to suggest that the non-trivial change had happened. A clause like "so the fact that this was carefully kept constant is evidence in favor of ..." would have helped. )
If EY originally intended the bait and switch, then regretted it, p>0.8 he would clean out other things that only exist to support his ill conceived tease.
What other things?
That is, if the bait-and-switch was intended, he would've had to come up with an actual character that fit all those facts as well, and it seems like "he spent seven years sleeping in the same room as Voldemort" is a non-trivial detail to change.
That would only have changed if the year he started Hogwarts changed, which it did not. The birth date didn't change by a whole year, just from late enough in 1926 to enter Hogwarts in 1938 to early enough in 1927 to enter Hogwarts in that same year.
I can haz evidences, plz?
But thanks for even just the claims.
In addition to what the others have said there are numerous other passages and oddities that hint at Quirrel = Voldemort = Harry's dark side. Harry and Quirrel describing a Horcrux between them when they talk about the Pioneer plate. Quirrel saying he "resolved his parental issues to his satisfaction" long ago, just after saying being grateful for his parents could never have occured to him. Quirrel having a much better model of Harry than of Draco or Hermione, particularly when Harry's dark side is involved. Harry's dark side and Quirrel both being extremely vulnerable to Dementors. Harry's dark side and Quirrel both being very good at pretending to be other people. Quirrel's extremely odd reaction when Harry talks about having a mysterious dark side and his going along with the convenient conclusion that it's just another part of Harry. Dumbledore and Snape recognizing Voldemort's hand in Quirrels actions. Harry's dark side hating Dumbledore. And so on.
The strongest piece of evidence for Lucius believing Harry to be Voldemort is his "I know it was you" message after breaking out Bellatrix.
Voted down for neither containing new and interesting ideas nor being funny.
Wait, when did we learn anything about the Rita Skeeter prank?
Harry concluded that it must have been a false memory charm. That was one of the more popular theories before, and Harry agreeing is probably as much confirmation as we are going to get in-story.
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If you assume both free will and prescience, it's natural. You cannot see the consequences of a decision that has not yet been made, but once it has been, then you can view it. Think of the visions in Dune, as one of the better-known examples - the visions that the seers see are infinite branches, not single facts, and the branch points are their decisions. (The analogy is not perfect - in Dune, the decisions of non-seers are taken as given - but I hope the idea is clear).
You mean libertarian free will, which already doesn't make sense all by itself, and even then the combination doesn't make sense for additional reasons, starting with that seeing anything would usually require that only main characters have free will.