Comment author:GBM
12 March 2008 06:19:36AM
-2 points
[-]
It seems to me you're using "perceived probability" and "probability" interchangeably. That is, you're "defining" probability as the probability that an observer assigns based on certain pieces of information. Is it not true that when one rolls a fair 1d6, there is an actual 1/6 probability of getting any one specific value? Or using your biased coin example: our information may tell us to assume a 50/50 chance, but the man may be correct in saying that the coin has a bias--that is, the coin may really come up heads 80% of the time, but we must assume a 50% chance to make the decision, until we can be certain of the 80% chance ourselves. What am I missing?
I would say that the Gomboc (http://tinyurl.com/2rffxs) has a 100% chance of righting itself, inherently. I do not understand how this is incorrect.
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It seems to me you're using "perceived probability" and "probability" interchangeably. That is, you're "defining" probability as the probability that an observer assigns based on certain pieces of information. Is it not true that when one rolls a fair 1d6, there is an actual 1/6 probability of getting any one specific value? Or using your biased coin example: our information may tell us to assume a 50/50 chance, but the man may be correct in saying that the coin has a bias--that is, the coin may really come up heads 80% of the time, but we must assume a 50% chance to make the decision, until we can be certain of the 80% chance ourselves. What am I missing? I would say that the Gomboc (http://tinyurl.com/2rffxs) has a 100% chance of righting itself, inherently. I do not understand how this is incorrect.