Gentzel

Epistemic Warfare

Lying and censorship are both adversarial games: they are applied by some for an advantage over others. All else being equal, one is harmful because it spreads disinformation, the other is harmful because it suppresses the spread of accurate information. When someone or a group justifies using either, it is normally in the context of achieving a greater benefit, or responding reciprocally to another. This mirrors war, in that war is inherently destructive as well, but can sometimes be used to accomplish good things and to punish or deter bad things. Treating lying and censorship as war though highlights not just that civil discourse is in a constant state of war, but a constant state of war crime. Lying to the masses is a form of indiscriminate attack, while censorship operates like a blockade and locks away potential benefits from everyone. Lies and censorship have collateral damage, and should only be considered legitimate when considerations of proportionality and mitigating collateral damage are applied. It should not be tolerated when friends and political allies lie to you about political opponents to boost support, because they are treating you as an adversary or a useful idiot. The more acceptable it is to lie and censor for effect, unpaired from any consideration of proportionality or collateral damage, the more societal trust is destroyed and the harder it is to initiate mutually beneficial cooperation. When insincere and unserious discourse and analysis is accepted (from one’s own side), b.s. proliferates and simultaneously provides stronger justification for the powerful to censor arbitrarily and in a biased manner to favor themselves. To get to a state with less lying and censorship, I wonder if the history of the decline of war provides any lessons on a path to “epistemic peace.” You can’t easily get to a cooperative equilibrium when there are many actors that can independently chose to cheat and defect for their own advantage. To negotiate with tru

56Dec 11, 2020

Lessons from the Cold War on Information Hazards: Why Internal Communication is Critical

47Feb 24, 2018

In Defense of the Arms Races… that End Arms Races

38Jan 15, 2020

The Cybersecurity Dilemma in a Nutshell

35Dec 12, 2019

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Surviving and Shaping Long-Term Competitions: Lessons from Net Assessment

This post examines net assessment, a framework for evaluating strategic competition that evolved to inform U.S. defense policy during the Cold War. We explain what net assessment is, its methods and principles, and how some of its tools can be applied to reason about highly uncertain, long-term tech competitions with...

Nov 24, 20236

Rules for Epistemic Warfare?

In partisan contests of various forms, dishonesty, polarization, and groupthink are widespread. Political warfare creates societal collateral damage: it makes it harder for individuals to arrive at true beliefs on many subjects, because their social networks provide strong incentive to promote false beliefs. To escape this situation, improving social norms...

Jun 5, 202121

The Future of Nuclear Arms Control?

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Epistemic Warfare

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Competitive Universal Basic Services?

Providing basic services should often be more efficient than basic income. The state can use its centralized negotiating power to get lower prices on standardized packages, and accordingly a floor for welfare could be provided at a lower cost than just redistributing income, which, though it gives people more agency,...

Nov 9, 202013

The Alignment-Competence Trade-Off, Part 1: Coalition Size and Signaling Costs

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Jan 15, 202030

In Defense of the Arms Races… that End Arms Races

All else being equal, arms races are a waste of resources and often an example of the defection equilibrium in the prisoner’s dilemma. However, in some cases, such capacity races may actually be the globally optimal strategy. Below I try to explain this with some examples. 1: If the U.S....

Jan 15, 202038

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Epistemic Warfare

Lessons from the Cold War on Information Hazards: Why Internal Communication is Critical

In Defense of the Arms Races… that End Arms Races

The Cybersecurity Dilemma in a Nutshell

Gentzel

Surviving and Shaping Long-Term Competitions: Lessons from Net Assessment

Rules for Epistemic Warfare?

The Future of Nuclear Arms Control?

Epistemic Warfare

Competitive Universal Basic Services?

The Alignment-Competence Trade-Off, Part 1: Coalition Size and Signaling Costs

In Defense of the Arms Races… that End Arms Races

Epistemic Warfare

Lessons from the Cold War on Information Hazards: Why Internal Communication is Critical

In Defense of the Arms Races… that End Arms Races

The Cybersecurity Dilemma in a Nutshell

Surviving and Shaping Long-Term Competitions: Lessons from Net Assessment

Rules for Epistemic Warfare?

The Future of Nuclear Arms Control?

Epistemic Warfare

Competitive Universal Basic Services?

The Alignment-Competence Trade-Off, Part 1: Coalition Size and Signaling Costs

In Defense of the Arms Races… that End Arms Races