Going!

What sounds better: "Slightly Less Wrong Every Day" or "Striving To Be Less Wrong"?

Really fantastic idea. I would suggest adding a way to tag predictions so that you can see how accurate you are within a particular domain. I would also suggest adding a way to see your accuracy over different timeframes (in order to view improvement). With those two features, this would definitely be an app I'd be willing to buy.

Sounds nice. Making predictions about personal events makes more sense to me than predicting e.g. elections or sport events (beauce a) I don't know anything about it, and b) I don't care about it). But I don't like the idea of making them (all) public, like on prediction book. Though a PredictionBook integration sounds like an obvious fancy feature.

And I liked what I saw the one second I could use the app ;-)

After installing, it crashed pressing "save" on the first prediction. Now it chrashed right on startup. I get to see the app for a moment, but I can't do anything. After deleting the data (from the android setting) I can make a new prediction, but again, it crashes after pressing "save".

I installed from the apk-link you provided.

I've got a Moto G (2. Generation) with Android 5.0.2.

Hope that helps. And if anyone can tell me how to diagnose the problem in more detail, I'd be interested in that, too.

You mean, instead of programming an AI in a real life computer and showing it a "Game of Life" table to optimize, you could build a turing machine inside a Game of Life table, program the AI inside this machine, and let it optimize the table in which it is? Makes sense.

Sounds nice. Making predictions about personal events makes more sense to me than predicting e.g. elections or sport events (beauce a) I don't know anything about it, and b) I don't care about it). But I don't like the idea of making them (all) public, like on prediction book. Though a PredictionBook integration sounds like an obvious fancy feature.

And I liked what I saw the one second I could use the app ;-)

After installing, it crashed pressing "save" on the first prediction. Now it chrashed right on startup. I get to see the app for a moment, but I can't do anything. After deleting the data (from the android setting) I can make a new prediction, but again, it crashes after pressing "save".

I installed from the apk-link you provided.

I've got a Moto G (2. Generation) with Android 5.0.2.

Hope that helps. And if anyone can tell me how to diagnose the problem in more detail, I'd be interested in that, too.

I like it! Thoughts from 30 seconds of playing around:

• There's some flickering in the text of the tabs while swiping between them.
• What is the difference between a "Yes" and a "No" prediction?
• Long presses are not particularly discoverable; perhaps there should be some buttons when you tap a prediction to expand it in the list view.

Design-wise, it's great apart from that. Both of your proposed features would be worthwhile too.

Thanks, this is awesome. I would love if there was a "roulette wheel" widget to choose the probability, in order to better visualize the equivalent bet test.

That way, you can take it as a kind of evidence/argument, instead of a Bottom Line - like an opinion from a supposed expert which tells you the "X is Y", but doesn't have the time to explain. You can then ask: "is this guy really an expert?" and "do other arguments/evidence outweight the expert's opinion?"

Note that both for experts and for your intuition, you should consider that you might end up double-counting the evidence if you treat them as independent of the evidence you have found - if everybody is doing everything correctly (which very rarily happens), you, your intuition and the experts should all know the same arguments, and naive thinking might double/triple-count the arguments.

Has anyone managed not to Bottom Line in their everyday thinking? I find that it's very difficult. It's so natural and it's a shortcut that I find useful more often than harmful. I wonder if it's best to flag issues where epistemic irrationality would be very bad and primarily focus on avoiding Bottom Lining at times like that. I feel that the things I'm talking about are in a different spirit than those originally intended by the article, where you're not so much emotionally invested in the world being a certain way as you are, say, relying on your intuition as the primary source of evidence for the sake of saving time and avoiding false starts.