Comment author: AnnaSalamon 07 March 2012 05:32:16PM *  2 points [-]

Much thanks for collecting this data. What example did you use? And what sorts of examples did you get back?

Comment author: Hermione 08 March 2012 11:50:56AM 3 points [-]

"I'm trying to give up chocolate. Last weekend I saw a delicious cake and I found myself telling myself the only reason I wanted it was to boost my energy levels, hahaha you know the feeling, right?" If they didn't immediately chime in with examples I'd prompt them with "and you know, its not just food, I rationalise all the time" and ask them if they do as well.

Over than half of them immediately came up with their own diet-related rationalisations. Of the other 4 I had the "calling my mum" one above, a couple of people who said they often caught themselves coming up with reasons for why they weren't doing their work, and one "the dog wouldn't like to be taken for a walk in this cold weather".

The reason I mentioned guilt is that a few of them (I didn't count) explicitly used the word "guilty" (like, I'm too tired to work, so I don't have to feel guilty that I'm out drinking) and one person talked about trying to make himself feel better.

Comment author: AnnaSalamon 03 March 2012 08:30:24AM 9 points [-]

In response to the folk suggesting that our questions were just unclear, etc.:

I notice rationalization all the time too (in myself and in others); but there totally seem to be people who don't ever notice it in themselves. Lots of them. Including both folks who seem never to have trained in rationality-type-stuff at all, and folks who have. I ignored my first counter-example, and my second, but not my third and forth; especially after the fourth counter-example kindly allowed us to cross-examine them for some hours, to go try accosting strangers with weird questions and see if they noticed themself rationalizing while approaching said strangers, etc.

Mercurial, and Eliezer, both suggested an analogy to the "thinking in words" vs "thinking in images" thing; some do one and others do another, and many tend to assume that everyone must experience life that way. We all updated toward thinking that there is some actual thing going on here -- something we were initially not modeling.

But, I'm still confused about:

  1. Whether we're just still missing something obvious anyhow. Maybe our fourth counter-example, who consented to answering gobs of questions and trying experiments for us, was a fluke? (Try asking people yourself, please; don't just say that it must be experimental error because you don't work that way)
  2. Whether they don't rationalize, or just don't notice themselves rationalizing. (Fourth datapoint seemed to maybe actually never make up reasons for choices; don't have data on the others really).
  3. What exactly the boundaries are on "rationalizing" -- what exactly it is, that a sizable portion of the folks we've talked to never notices themselves doing.
Comment author: Hermione 07 March 2012 03:00:12PM 6 points [-]

So, I asked some people as you suggested, but I didn't find anything as interesting as you. Over the last few days I've asked 10 people if they "rationalise", giving them just one example, and all of them have immediately understood and spontaneously come up with valid examples of themselves doing so.

Incidentally, I quite often catch myself rationalising, but I really doubt accosting strangers with odd questions would trigger that in me. I'm not sure what else to suggest. Perhaps asking them when they last felt guilty? From the examples the people I mentioned above came up with, guilt seems to be a very strong trigger of rationalisation. An example: "I forgot to call my Mum on her birthday but I told myself she was really busy with the rest of the family".

Comment author: John_Maxwell_IV 05 March 2012 07:50:52PM 2 points [-]

If you want more people to show up and you don't mind if they're just random folks interested in rationality but not familiar with less wrong, you could try making a meetup.com group to advertise your meetups there–there seem to be a fair number of people who browse that site looking for meetups to attend.

Comment author: Hermione 06 March 2012 11:39:13AM 0 points [-]

Thanks for recommending this site. I found a quantified self meetup that looks interesting in itself and may possibly be a place to recruit for our fledgling rationality meetups in brussels

Comment author: karlsfriend 02 March 2012 03:47:35PM 0 points [-]

I am thinking about going, but don't know enough about what to expect of the event to make the journey from germany.

What exacly is the "programm" for the meetup, if any?

which languages will be spoken there?

What was the previous event like?

Comment author: Hermione 04 March 2012 04:36:06PM 1 point [-]

Hi Karl,

There are actually very few of us able to attend regularly. I was thinking it might be worth organising a more intensive "full day" event with a bunch of activities planned (e.g. which we could each prepare a session for or something), and that might be worth your while coming to. In fact, if you tell us what kind of meetup would make it worth your while coming, I for one would try to make that happen. (I really want to meet more LWers). Please PM me or Axel your email and we'll include you on the mailing list.

Comment author: thomblake 28 February 2012 02:22:57PM 3 points [-]

Sorry, I'm just here ironically to recite empty platitudes about empiricism.

But seriously, figuring out how to know that is one of the big projects here.

Comment author: Hermione 29 February 2012 01:21:15PM 1 point [-]

hah. Has anyone made any progress?

I was wondering if one could test group rationality by starting a conversation about something the group finds it hard to agree on. There are a few such topics here on LW and I'm sure there would be more if you added politics into the mix. The test would be so see whether the group could reach unanimity. I was thinking this might be a fun thing to try at the brussels meetups if they get going.

Comment author: Kevin 23 February 2012 02:11:13PM *  1 point [-]

Hello there! With regards to better understanding your moods and indicators, I'd suggest a bit of noting meditation, or at least adding some of the different kinds of things to note to your vocabulary of moods and indicators.

http://kennethfolkdharma.wetpaint.com/ Just see the lists from "First Gear".

Comment author: Hermione 27 February 2012 09:48:40PM 0 points [-]

At the moment I'm looking for something that can be done with half a brain when busy, since the beeper study interrupts me a lot. Meditation in any form seems to require quite a big investment before it yields results.Thanks for the link, though

Comment author: gwern 23 February 2012 05:24:59PM 2 points [-]

I'd like to improve the indicators I've been using. I struggle to get the right balance between quantitative (more analysable) and qualitative (more accurate). Any suggestions?

I am slowly setting up a self-experiment with lithium focusing on mood, so I'm interested in the same question. Seth Roberts suggested I rate my mood on just a 0-100 scale as opposed to the 1-5 I was using; I suggested using the Brief POMS as an apparently standard mood rating tool (and used in previous lithium studies) but I haven't heard back.

Comment author: Hermione 27 February 2012 09:32:55PM 0 points [-]

Thanks. My problem seems to be along the lines of "well, I'm happy about x but simultaneously anxious about y and kind of stressed because I only just met my deadline for blah..., so what does that aggregate to?"

I'm not sure how increasing the scale would help with that, but I followed the link to the POMs stuff on your website, I reckon something similar could be a good solution, though probably with different moods.

Comment author: thomblake 23 February 2012 02:47:38PM *  0 points [-]

Welcome! Note that there are some references to "Hermione" on this site and they are probably about that other person.

Should I try and absorb things really quickly, or is it better to take it slowly, and if so, what comes first?

As a general comment, remember The Art must have a purpose other than itself. Don't assume you're more rational because you know some bias names or feel more rational. Make sure it's making a difference in your life, and if possible do that via systematic empirical study.

Comment author: Hermione 27 February 2012 09:10:52PM 0 points [-]

Hmm, thanks, that makes sense. But do you have any suggestions for indicators that would measure if I'm improving?

Comment author: Hermione 23 February 2012 02:34:15PM 7 points [-]

I've never read an article about AI before this one. I feel qualified to comment because that places me squarely in your target audience for this piece. I found it to be an interesting introduction to the 3 questions you highlighted for discussion. I found the discussion of "friendly AI" particularly compelling/scary.

I do have a couple of comments on style that might be helpful:

  1. In the opening section, the three paragraphs on what you are not planning to do may be useful signaling for people who are fed up with some elements of the AI discourse. But as a newcomer, it made me feel as though you were on the defensive from the beginning. I also found parts of these paragraphs a bit confusing, in contrast to the rest of the article which is clearly aimed at newcomers. E.g. I don't know what a classical Von Neumann computing architecture is, or what it means that you aren't assuming the continuation of Moore's law.

  2. Section 1 ("from here to AI") is a good introduction to how to think about the tricky problem of 'when is it coming?'. But it wasn't clear to me how your conclusion that "there is a significant probability that AI will be created this century" follows from section 1. It might help if you were to spell out which of the seemingly difficult AI benchmarks have been reached (are these the Accelerators you discussed before?).

I hope this is useful

Comment author: Hermione 23 February 2012 01:54:42PM 10 points [-]

Hi there. I'm Hermione (yes, really). I went to my first LW meetup recently and I'm now working on the Rationality Curriculum, so it feels like time to introduce myself and start getting involved in discussions.

There are a lot of things I'd be interested in talking about. I only found LW a couple of months ago so I'm trying to level up in rationality and work out how to teach others to do so at the same time. I'll probably be posting about this and asking for advice. Has anyone written about their experiences of reading the sequences for the first time? Should I try and absorb things really quickly, or is it better to take it slowly, and if so, what comes first? That kind of thing.

I've also been inspired by Alicorn's Luminosity sequence and have been piloting a beeper experiment, Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi style. In order to understand myself and my moods better, I've been recording what I'm doing and how I feel at random times (3x/day). I'd like to improve the indicators I've been using. I struggle to get the right balance between quantitative (more analysable) and qualitative (more accurate). Any suggestions?

Finally, I'd really like to meet some more rationalists in person, so please PM me if you're in Brussels!

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