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You're in Newcomb's Box

Part 1: Transparent Newcomb with your existence at stake Related: Newcomb's Problem and Regret of Rationality Omega, a wise and trustworthy being, presents you with a one-time-only game and a surprising revelation. "I have here two boxes, each containing $100," he says. "You may choose to take both Box A and Box B, or just Box B. You get all the money in the box or boxes you take, and there will be no other consequences of any kind. But before you choose, there is something I must tell you." Omega pauses portentously. "You were created by a god: a being called Prometheus. Prometheus was neither omniscient nor particularly benevolent. He was given a large set of blueprints for possible human embryos, and for each blueprint that pleased him he created that embryo and implanted it in a human woman. Here was how he judged the blueprints: any that he guessed would grow into a person who would choose only Box B in this situation, he created. If he judged that the embryo would grow into a person who chose both boxes, he filed that blueprint away unused. Prometheus's predictive ability was not perfect, but it was very strong; he was the god, after all, of Foresight." Do you take both boxes, or only Box B? For some of you, this question is presumably easy, because you take both boxes in standard Newcomb where a million dollars is at stake. For others, it's easy because you take both boxes in the variant of Newcomb where the boxes are transparent and you can see the million dollars; just as you would know that you had the million dollars no matter what, in this case you know that you exist no matter what. Others might say that, while they would prefer not to cease existing, they wouldn't mind ceasing to have ever existed. This is probably a useful distinction, but I personally (like, I suspect, most of us) score the universe higher for having me in it. Others will cheerfully take the one box, logic-ing themselves into existence using whatever reasoning they used to q

59Feb 5, 2011

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[META] Alternatives to rot13 and karma sinks

rot13 is... (Results) A quaint internet tradition that I quite enjoy So annoying Easy to use because I have Leet Key Vapbzcerurafvoyr In November, DanielVarga complained about rot13.com as a way of hiding spoilers, and suggested some specifications for an alternative web service, with an algorithm that can operate on...

Apr 17, 201231

A call for solutions and a tease of mine

So here's the problem: Given a well-defined group charter, how should groups make decisions? You have an issue, you've talked it over, and now it's time for the group to take action. Different members have different opinions, because they're not perfect reasoners and because their interests don't reliably align with...

Jan 19, 2012-6

Histocracy: Open, Effective Group Decision-Making With Weighted Voting

The following is slightly edited from a pitch I wrote for a general audience. I've added blog-specific content afterwards. Information technology allows for unprecedented levels of collaboration and debate. When an issue arises people communicate freely, are held accountable for misrepresentations, and are celebrated for cogent analysis. We share information...

Jan 17, 201219

Mapping Fun Theory onto the challenges of ethical foie gras

Foie gras, the delicacy made from the liver of a very fat goose (or sometimes duck), is believed to be unethical and is therefore frequently banned. For a long time, it was believed that the only way to properly fatten a goose is to continually force-feed it through a tube...

Dec 7, 201149

[Link] Using the conjunction fallacy to reveal implicit associations

Via Pharyngula. A recent set of studies by Gervais, Shariff, and Norenzayan tested whether public dislike of atheists was based more on distrust or revulsion. The first study simply asked directly, and found that American adults report a strong distrust of atheists. However, they worried that explicit answers might be...

Dec 6, 20117

Probability puzzle: Coins in envelopes

This went over well in the xkcd logic puzzle forum (my hand was not removed), so I thought I'd try it here. It came to me in a dream, so by solving it you may be helping to summon an elder god or something. You're spying on Alice and Bob,...

Dec 2, 201111

Poker with Lennier

In J. Michael Straczynski's science fiction TV show Babylon 5, there's a character named Lennier. He's pretty Spock-like: he's a long-lived alien who avoids displaying emotion and feels superior to humans in intellect and wisdom. He's sworn to always speak the truth. In one episode, he and another character, the...

Nov 15, 201126

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You're in Newcomb's Box

[FICTION] Hamlet and the Philosopher's Stone

Mapping Fun Theory onto the challenges of ethical foie gras

Random advice: Teenage U.S. LW-ers should probably be taking more AP exams

HonoreDB

[META] Alternatives to rot13 and karma sinks

A call for solutions and a tease of mine

Histocracy: Open, Effective Group Decision-Making With Weighted Voting

Mapping Fun Theory onto the challenges of ethical foie gras

[Link] Using the conjunction fallacy to reveal implicit associations

Probability puzzle: Coins in envelopes

Poker with Lennier

You're in Newcomb's Box

[FICTION] Hamlet and the Philosopher's Stone

Mapping Fun Theory onto the challenges of ethical foie gras

Random advice: Teenage U.S. LW-ers should probably be taking more AP exams

[META] Alternatives to rot13 and karma sinks

A call for solutions and a tease of mine

Histocracy: Open, Effective Group Decision-Making With Weighted Voting

Mapping Fun Theory onto the challenges of ethical foie gras

[Link] Using the conjunction fallacy to reveal implicit associations

Probability puzzle: Coins in envelopes

Poker with Lennier