Comment author: IffThen 12 August 2015 09:37:49PM 6 points [-]

America should take up the metric system.

Comment author: HungryHobo 12 August 2015 05:33:48PM 3 points [-]

More generally I do sometimes worry that attack vectors which seem obvious and dangerous to me simply haven't been though of by deeply unimaginative malicious people and so feel vaguely worried about even mentioning them as a negative possibility if I can't find people already proposing them with google.

Comment author: IffThen 12 August 2015 09:17:05PM 0 points [-]

Speaking of crazy ideas.... sitting around Googling methods of terrorism may not be the best way to stay of the CIA's watch-list.

Comment author: David_Bolin 09 August 2015 03:33:55PM 0 points [-]

"Imagine a world in which no one was living below the average income level."

This is a world where everyone has exactly the same income. I don't see any special reason why it would be desirable, though.

Comment author: IffThen 12 August 2015 08:58:19PM 1 point [-]

That was sort of my point. Most people are going to imagine it as a more perfect world. But if they were to think through all of the implications, they would see that it probably involves massive taxation and a very very strong central government, with less motivation for people to do dirty and difficult jobs.

They want something they can't, or don't, accurately imagine.

Comment author: [deleted] 05 August 2015 11:57:09PM 2 points [-]

Really? What are the trivial demographic trends?

Also, it's emotionally threatening to say that they're suffering the ravages of ageing meaninglessly.

In response to comment by [deleted] on Rationality Quotes Thread August 2015
Comment author: IffThen 09 August 2015 03:07:28AM 1 point [-]

Most people can't imagine what a world without ageing would be like, and they can't want what they can't imagine.

I have to agree with Lumifer -- most people can imagine (and want) a world without aging, because they would not bother to think about the demographic trends. I would compare this to asking someone to imagine a world in which no one was living below the average income level; I think most people would agree that this is easy to conceive of, and desirable. It's only the select few who would think this through and wonder how the powers that be are going to achieve this without doing something very drastic to a lot of people.

Comment author: tut 07 August 2015 10:30:26AM *  2 points [-]

Ok, the answer to OPs question is that action flick "clones" are not possible with near future technology, and most likely making them (with Drexlerian nanotech or something) is strictly more difficult than just fixing your present body. Your real world clone would take 20 years to "make" and be a separate person, like you would be if you grew up when they did.

Comment author: IffThen 09 August 2015 02:52:32AM 1 point [-]

Your real world clone would take 20 years to "make" and be a separate person, like you would be if you grew up when they did.

This is partially missing the point. The goal is to make a separate body, compatible with your biology. There is no need to grow a clone with a functioning brain -- any medical science sufficient to clone a human would be able to clone an acephalic human (WARNING, NSFL, fetus with head damage), and growing a clone with a fully functioning brain (i.e., not driven insane by being grown in a de facto sensory deprivation chamber) would be much more expensive, even if you kept education to a minimum.

Still, all this is ethically questionable, something that would need a lot of advance planning, and will be a long time in the future. It is true that fixing your body piecemeal will almost surely be a better option -- even if it does end up involving some limited form of cloning organs.

Comment author: Lumifer 06 August 2015 08:38:10PM *  7 points [-]

Look at the prevalence of Alzheimer's as a function of age:

Until you solve that particular problem, transplanting brains seems to be pointless.

Comment author: IffThen 09 August 2015 02:31:49AM 1 point [-]

This is consistent with 27chaos's statement, though. If you get a body transplant at 65, you have solved a number of medical problems, and the chance of living the next 30 years without having to worry about Alzheimer's is ~70%. Of course, Alzheimer's disease accounts for only 60-80% of cases of dementia. But still, I think there would be a market.

It is also worth noting that cardiovascular factors, physical fitness, and diet contribute to the risk of dementia, including Alzheimer's. These are not the greatest risk factors (as you might have guessed, age is the greatest risk factor), but these can be managed if you are motivated to do so -- in fact, getting a new body should be a fairly effective way of managing cardiovascular fitness.

Comment author: ChristianKl 07 August 2015 01:03:09PM 1 point [-]

In this case it seems like the marginal value of blood donation should be roughly what the organizations like the red cross are willing to pay to get additional blood donations.

You could look at how often patients get less blood because of supply issues.

Comment author: IffThen 09 August 2015 02:12:01AM 1 point [-]

From the Freakonomics blog: "FDA prohibits any gifts to blood donors in excess of $25 in cumulative value".

Various articles give different amounts for the price per pint that hospitals pay, but it looks like it's in the range of $125 in most cases.

Comment author: Elo 07 August 2015 05:47:25AM 4 points [-]

To my knowledge - the line "up to three lives" is quoted because a blood sample can be separated into 3 parts? or 3 samples, to help with different problems.

What is not mentioned often is the shelf-life for blood products. 3 months on the shelf and that pint is in the medical-waste basket. AKA zero lives saved.

And further, if a surgery goes wrong and they need multiple transfusions to stabilise a person the lives saved goes into fractional numbers. (0.5, 0.33, 0.25...) But those numbers are not pretty.

Further; if someone requires multiple transfusions over their life; to save their life multiple times...

There are numbers less than 1 (0); there are numbers smaller than a whole; and (not actually a mistake made here) real representative numbers don't often fall to a factor of 5 or 10. (5, 10, 50, 100, 1000).


Anyway if you are healthy and able to spare some blood then its probably a great thing to do.

Ike's article linked does start to cover adverse effects of blood donation; I wonder if a study has been made into it.

(http://www.ihn-org.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Side-effects-of-blood-donation-by-apheresis-by-Hans-Vrielink.pdf comes as a source from wikipedia on prevelance of adverse effects) (oh shite thats a lot more common than I expected.

The risk I see is that donating blood temporarily disables you by a small amount. I would call it akin to being a little tipsy; a little sleep deprived, or a little drowsy; or a little low in blood pressure (oh wait yea). Nothing bad happens by being a little drowsy, or a little sleep deprived. It really depends on the whole-case of your situation as to whether something bad happens. (See: swiss cheese model: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_cheese_model )

The important question to ask is - can you take it? If yes; then go right ahead. If you are already under pressure from the complexities of life in such a way that you might be adversely burdening yourself to donate blood; Your life is worth more (even for the simple reasoning that you can donate in the future when you are more up to it)

Comment author: IffThen 07 August 2015 02:04:41PM 1 point [-]

I'm not sure where you got the 3 month figure from; in America we store the blood for less than that, no more than 6 weeks. It is true that the value of your donation is dependent on your blood type, and you may find that your local organization asks you to change your donation type (platelets, plasma, whole blood) if you have a blood type that is less convenient. I do acknowledge that this question is much more relevant for those of us who are typo O-.

Comment author: ChristianKl 07 August 2015 07:53:03AM 1 point [-]

A core idea of EA is the marginal value of a donation. The marginal value of an additional person donating blood is certainly less than a live saved.

And as a corollary, should I move my charitable giving to bribing people to donate blood whenever there is a shortage?

Certainly not. Finding funding to have enough blood donations isn't a problem. Our medical system has enough money to pay people in times of shortage.

But it doesn't want to pay people. The average quality of blood of people who have to be bribed is lower than the average quality of people who donate blood to help their fellow citizens.

Comment author: IffThen 07 August 2015 01:54:21PM *  -1 points [-]

I think you are often right about the marginal utility of blood. However, it is worth noting that the Red Cross both pesters people to give blood (a lot, even if you request them directly not to multiple times), and that they offer rewards for blood -- usually a t-shirt or a hat, but recently I've been getting $5 gift cards. Obviously, this is not intended to directly indicate the worth of the blood, but these factors do indicate that bribery and coercion is alive and well.

EDIT: The FDA prohibits any gifts to blood donors in excess of $25 in cumulative value.

It is also worth noting that there is a thriving industry paying for blood plasma, which may indicate that certain types of blood donation are significantly more valuable than others (plasma are limited use, but can be given regardless of blood type).

Comment author: cousin_it 07 August 2015 11:41:05AM *  1 point [-]

OK.

Is a world with Newtonian gravity and non-elliptical orbits logically possible?

Is a world where PA proves ¬Con(PA) logically possible?

Is a world with p-zombies logically possible?

Too often, people confuse "I couldn't find a contradiction in 5 minutes" with "there's provably no contradiction, no matter how long you look". The former is what philosophers seem to use routinely, while the latter is a very high standard. For example, our familiar axioms about the natural numbers provably cannot meet that standard, due to the incompleteness theorems. I'd be very surprised if Chalmers had an argument that showed p-zombies are logically possible in the latter sense.

Comment author: IffThen 07 August 2015 01:27:24PM 1 point [-]

"Chalmers argues that since such zombies are conceivable to us, they must therefore be logically possible. Since they are logically possible, then qualia and sentience are not fully explained by physical properties alone."

This is shorthand for "in the two decades that Chalmers has been working on this problem, he has been defending the argument that..." You might look at his arguments and find them lacking, but he has spent much longer than five minutes on the problem.

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