Comment author: Viliam 13 June 2016 09:28:03AM 0 points [-]

Imagine a homeless beggar with schizophrenia and alcohol addiction.

I suspect than at least half of homeless people are actually insane. Giving money to insane people doesn't fix their long-term problems. Might provide them food to survive the day, though. Even that would require to pay them the money daily... which should be technically achievable using ATMs, but then there is a risk of them losing / selling / getting stolen the debit card.

Another layer of the problem is that there are criminal organization preying on homeless people (the homeless pay them protection money from the money they get from begging, otherwise they will not be allowed to beg in "their territory"), so imagine where the basic income money would go.

tl;dr - it's complicated

Comment author: Ixiel 13 June 2016 09:45:13AM 0 points [-]

Hmm, that's interesting data, thanks. None of that is true in my nearest city but that in no way proves it's not the norm. If a person is actually mentally incompetent you're probably quite right, and organized crime could be a wrench in a lot of systems if it's organized enough.

Though maybe economics should - if you'll forgive the allusion - remove the log from its own eye first, and maybe then if it has any spare juice move on to solving health care problems and law enforcement problems. I haven't given this enough thought to be sure about it, but it's a thought.

Comment author: gwern 11 June 2016 09:42:18PM *  7 points [-]

GiveDirectly and the direct transfer RCTs in Africa/Third World countries don't answer the question about First World poverty because almost everyone, including the industrious and drug-free and high functioning people, in those countries is dirt-poor; in the First World, there is a much stronger correlation of pathology and poverty. To give an example, the direct transfers in Africa work because people there really are in poverty traps where $100 can make a big difference in letting them buy a cow or a motorcycle, and this is why the direct transfer RCTs show benefits; no one in America will show big benefits from a few transfers of $100 because poor people there have problems which can't be solved by some cash.

The upcoming YC-funded experiment will help test the generalizability of basic income results, and the original American experiments decades ago suggest that a basic income wouldn't cause lots of self-destructive behavior (or at least, wouldn't make things noticeably worse), but on the other hand, the natural experiments of lotteries in the USA and elsewhere like Sweden show minimal benefits to random shocks of wealth (which could've been invested for income). So I wouldn't be totally pessimistic, but I also wouldn't be surprised if BI experiments in the USA do worse than one would predict from the earlier GiveDirectly results.

Comment author: Ixiel 12 June 2016 12:16:09AM 0 points [-]

I hadn't thought of that, good point. It still rings of the best example I have, but maybe not by as much. I have zero experience with actual people dying on actual streets so I use what I've got.

Yeah, I hope if experiments are done they're done well. A half-baked experiment could easily do more harm than good.

Comment author: The_Gentleman 11 June 2016 06:29:07PM 1 point [-]

I've had with poor people don't bear this out.

Are you talking about poor people, or the fellow dying in the street. There's a difference.

Comment author: Ixiel 12 June 2016 12:12:37AM 1 point [-]

Poor people. We don't have people dying in the street where I live, but I would assume they'd be even less likely to "squander the money you give him on booze and drugs." I might be wrong, and I'm happy to entertain evidence to that effect.

Comment author: Ixiel 11 June 2016 06:08:34PM 0 points [-]

Thanks again In; this definitely answers a question about which I was curious.

Comment author: The_Gentleman 11 June 2016 02:18:22AM 0 points [-]

Money, same as now. I'm not waving a wand and declaring superabundance here, just saying if we're not ready as a society to let people die of want, let's not mess about and let's just give everybody money. I do not have a counterargument to "He who does not work shall not eat," except to say that that is a coherent view and a different set of values than I think most of America holds. If you're okay with a lazy fella dying on the street, I don't know how to bridge the gap in basic premises.

A basic income won't help here. The lazy fellow dying in the streets will squander the money you give him on booze and drugs and then still be dying in the streets.

Comment author: Ixiel 11 June 2016 06:05:41PM 0 points [-]

Why do you think so? What I've seen from GiveDirectly and the conversations I've had with poor people don't bear this out. I'm not saying you're wrong, but do you have factual support for this I could see?

Comment author: Lumifer 11 June 2016 01:48:42AM 2 points [-]

the output humanity will have anyway will run the world

Sure, but at which level? Hunter-gatherer societies have no "jobs" and "run the world" (or at least used to) -- would you like to go live in one?

if we're not ready as a society to let people die of want, let's not mess about and let's just give everybody money.

First, no one in America will die of starvation because of unwillingness to work. Right here, right now, no one.

Second, I don't see the need for the black-and-white approach: GBI or nothing. There are nuances and incentives matter.

Is it better to work five fewer hours a week to get to the moon a year later and keep the old iPhone an extra few months?

How about medical care?

In any case, if you want to discuss the issue it would help to get specific. For example, your main point is that GBI would be great. So specify how large ($/year) and what does "great" mean (what are you going to measure and what you will be willing to trade off for that).

Comment author: Ixiel 11 June 2016 06:03:35PM 0 points [-]

Amen, and amen, and amen. I agree with everything you say here and consider none of it refutation.

Fresh eyes: I fell into a trap here. "Because I plan on doing some more serious campaigning for a more aggressive GBI (among other things) " was poorly phrased, and I fell into a pattern of defending it. I focused there because it seemed the nearest point of contact to this community. My intent was largely to dodge answering questions about my actual thesis because I'm not public with it yet.

In doing so, I sound like a bad parrot of all the other GBI plans that spend a lot of time talking about how pretty the island over there probably is and far less time on boat schematics. GBI is compatible and has a foothold, but is not my core thesis. And while I assumed the downvotes were just the social conservative faction doing what they do (I don't know anything specific I've done to tick them off, but I disagree more with them than any other LW faction and it's a documented tactic of theirs, so it was an easy out), I now think maybe some folks noticed this and didn't have time to type it up. Thanks guys, message worth hearing.

So I'll respond here and wrap up, unless you want more, because my question was already answered.

  1. I think there are a variety of preferences on the issue, and that policy is skewed toward accomodating the work-hard-play-hard group. I'd like that rolled back a bit.

  2. Golly that did read like a false dilemma didn't it? Sorry. My intent was to say that I have heard that argument a few times, and I can't beat it. I definitely agree there are compromise positions, and even though I'd love a non-means-based GBI with tax simplification, in practice I bet we end up with one in the best reasonable case. But 2a is a total strawman. It is uncontroversially true, nobody I've ever met denies it, and it has nothing to do with my argument. If I say "if you argue that gravity is a repulsive force originating from dark matter that only looks attractive because we're in gravity shadows I can't defeat that argument.," "nobody in America is being repelled by gravity under the current system" is not a rejoinder.

  3. Yup, medical care is a tough one. We're not immortal yet, and that's a problem. It's a good point, and I hope it gets a good answer in actual policy.

Anyway, thanks for your patience.

Comment author: gjm 10 June 2016 08:37:51PM -1 points [-]

Apologies for the digression and please feel free not to answer, but I'm curious: How were you able to retire at 33? Successful startup? Family money? Working in finance plus reasonable frugality?

Comment author: Ixiel 11 June 2016 01:14:29PM *  1 point [-]

Just genetic lottery. My family owns a chain of convenience stores in upstate NY, and after some time in banking I decided I'd prefer not to work any more. I am writing a book, but I don't feel comfortable calling myself an author until I publish it.

I'm comfortable talking about it as long as I don't feel like I'm being perceived as bragging about something over which I have no control (which is stupid, and which I see in other people all the time)

Comment author: Lumifer 10 June 2016 07:15:24PM *  4 points [-]

there is absolutely nothing wrong with someone deciding to just live off the dole and not work

Within which framework? From an individual point of view, sure. From the point of view of the society, not so much -- someone has to produce value which this person will consume. Arguing that it's psychologically healthy to not work isn't a relevant argument here.

that people who don't have to work ... will have a better wheat/chaff ratio for what they do do

You know that the primary function of the markets is provide incentives for wheat and disincentives for chaff, right? They perform this function quite well. You will argue that without the guiding prod of the market people will produce more of better stuff all by themselves?

Comment author: Ixiel 10 June 2016 07:26:12PM 1 point [-]
  1. Well I have a much longer argument for this in the book, but I propose that the amount of work people will do because they want to is more than enough to run society. 40h per person per week (ish) is, in my view, largely makework.

  2. Of course.
    The markets have a major confound, imo, in the form of pro-job policy. I believe, and I have some support for this but not enough to prove the point yet, that if "jobs creation" did not occur as a political activity, the market would normalize below the level people would produce without, again using the provocative language descriptively not manipulatively, the lingering threat of dying of want.

Comment author: WalterL 10 June 2016 06:48:47PM 0 points [-]

Initially I thought I'd take a few months, veg out, etc. After I lived that way for a while though I became interested in getting a new job again. Took a couple weeks from deciding to work again to getting the job.

So, sort of both? Started out with no strong opinions on work again vs. not, migrated to looking for job.

Comment author: Ixiel 10 June 2016 07:18:51PM -1 points [-]

Right on. Thanks!

Comment author: Lumifer 10 June 2016 05:36:56PM 4 points [-]

Why are you interested in a study? Studies typically tell you about the averages and in many cases the averages are not what you need. In some cases, they are, actually, what no one needs.

Some people fall apart without externally imposed structure, but some people thrive in the absence of constraints. The latter are often called "self-directed" or "self-motivated" or some other term like that. Both types exist, not to mention the intermediate cases, of course.

Comment author: Ixiel 10 June 2016 06:04:53PM *  2 points [-]

Because I plan on doing some more serious campaigning for a more aggressive GBI (among other things) than what a lot of people advocate. I plan on making the case that there is absolutely nothing wrong with someone deciding to just live off the dole and not work, and that people who choose that are often more in the way of people making progress than helping them when they show up to clock hours. I also plan to assert that people who don't have to work, effectively on penalty of death if I want to sound dramatic, will have a better wheat/chaff ratio for what they do do. Of course I want to make sure it's true first :P

If I get to design the study it'll be a little different from the study I seek because I don't think I can expect anyone to have done that study. And I'll be more interested in the whole study than the executive summary for exactly the reasons you describe.

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