Comment author: Douglas_Knight 27 August 2015 11:07:18PM 1 point [-]

Actually, when you short a stock, you must pay an interest rate to the person from whom you borrowed the stock. That interest rate varies from stock to stock, but is always above the risk-free rate. Thus, if you short a stock and do nothing interesting with the cash and eventually cover it at the original price, you will lose money.

Comment author: JEB_4_PREZ_2016 27 August 2015 11:57:57PM *  -1 points [-]

If you enter into a short sale at time 0 and cover at time T, you get paid interest on your collateral or margin requirement by the lender of the asset. This is called the short rebate or (in the bond market) the repo rate. As the short seller, you'll be required to pay the time T asset price along with lease rate, which is based on the dividends or bond coupons the asset pays out from 0 to T.

So, if no dividends/coupons are paid out, it's theoretically possible for you to profit from selling short despite no change in the underlying asset price.

Comment author: Epictetus 26 August 2015 11:57:49PM 0 points [-]

Isn't the obvious answer, "because, assuming your life isn't unbearably bad, living the next 1,000 years has higher expected utility than not living the next 1,000 years?"

We don't have accurate predictions about what the next 1,000 years are going to look like. Any probability calculation we make will be mostly influenced by our priors; in other words, an optimist would compute a good expected utility while a pessimist would reach the opposite result.

Responses like yours confuse me because they seem to confidently imply that the future will be incredibly boring or something.

I'm saying that if there's nothing impressive about my life in the present or the past, then I'm not one to expect much more out of the future. Some people have a cause or goal and would like to live long enough to see it through--good for them, I say.

I harbor no such vision myself. It's possible that something comes up at a later time and, over the course of 1,000 years (say), it seems rather likely that at some point I'd encounter that feeling. It's equally likely that something unavoidably bad comes up. On balance, I'm indifferent.

Comment author: JEB_4_PREZ_2016 27 August 2015 12:23:01AM 0 points [-]

Makes sense. Thanks for the reply.

Comment author: Epictetus 26 August 2015 08:06:49PM 1 point [-]

Honestly, I don't even find the prospect of living another decade all that exciting. If it's anything like its predecessor, my expectations are low. If I were to suddenly die in that time I wouldn't think it a big loss (albeit my family might not like it so much), but if I'm alive I'll probably manage to find some way to pass the time.

If you asked me whether I'd like to live another thousand years (assuming no physical or mental degradation), I'd ask myself "Why would I want to live 1,000 years?" and, failing to find an answer, decline. If I were told that I was going to live that long whether I liked it or not, I'd treat it more as a thing to be endured than as an exciting opportunity. The best I'd expect is to spend the time reasonably content.

Needless to say, I wouldn't make any great sacrifice today for that kind of longevity. If I avoid wanton hedonism, it's because that lifestyle can lead to accelerated degradation and the associated problems. Concern about longevity hardly enters into my calculations.

Comment author: JEB_4_PREZ_2016 26 August 2015 10:51:57PM 0 points [-]

If you asked me whether I'd like to live another thousand years (assuming no physical or mental degradation), I'd ask >myself "Why would I want to live 1,000 years?" and, failing to find an answer, decline.

Isn't the obvious answer, "because, assuming your life isn't unbearably bad, living the next 1,000 years has higher expected utility than not living the next 1,000 years?"

Responses like yours confuse me because they seem to confidently imply that the future will be incredibly boring or something. It's possible, but the opposite could also be true. And even if it was unexpectedly bad, you'd still likely be able to opt out at any time.

Comment author: JEB_4_PREZ_2016 24 August 2015 10:33:06PM *  1 point [-]

Significant lifespan extension would change all of our cultural norms so much that it isn't realistic to expect non-nerds to begin to wrap their heads around it in any meaningful way. And they sure as hell can't be expected to change their minds about any of their core beliefs/values, let alone the fact that they don't want to live "forever."

In response to comment by [deleted] on Robert Aumann on Judaism
Comment author: [deleted] 22 August 2015 09:21:28PM 0 points [-]

Yes, but Islamic societies don't actually have a Thought Police. They care about the public affectations and the obedience to norms associated with religion, not about private convictions. Honestly, do people in the West really think Arabs actually believe 100% of the nonsense they spout?

In response to comment by [deleted] on Robert Aumann on Judaism
Comment author: JEB_4_PREZ_2016 22 August 2015 11:11:57PM *  1 point [-]

Honestly, do people in the West really think Arabs actually believe 100% of the nonsense they spout?

Yes. Maybe not 100%, but 75-95%.

Comment author: Fluttershy 22 August 2015 10:06:42PM 11 points [-]

I support the idea of having a recurring 'Instrumental Rationality Questions' thread.

Comment author: JEB_4_PREZ_2016 22 August 2015 11:01:34PM 3 points [-]

Me too.

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