Comment author: DanArmak 02 November 2013 12:58:01PM *  3 points [-]

Write, not right.

Sorry if you feel this is nitpicky; it broke up my concentration.

Comment author: James_K 02 November 2013 06:44:39PM 1 point [-]

Thanks, fixed.

Comment author: James_K 02 November 2013 04:44:43AM *  -1 points [-]

Rachel: I'll have to write that into the new gospel.

E-Merl: New gospel?

Rachel: Gospels should be updated regularly.

Guilded Age

Edit: mispelling of "write" corrected.

Comment author: cody-bryce 02 August 2013 10:29:32PM 7 points [-]

Why spend a dollar on a bookmark? ... Why not use the dollar as a bookmark?

-Steven Spielberg

Comment author: James_K 03 August 2013 06:50:59AM 8 points [-]

My bookmark is made of two prices of fridge-magnet material. It can be closed around a few pages and the magnetism holds it in place, preventing it from falling out.

Plus dollars in my country are exclusively coins, the smallest note is $5.

Comment author: DSherron 01 July 2013 11:58:16PM 15 points [-]

That honestly seems like some kind of fallacy, although I can't name it. I mean, sure, take joy in the merely real, that's a good outlook to have; but it's highly analogous to saying something like "Average quality of life has gone up dramatically over the past few centuries, especially for people in major first world countries. You get 50-90 years of extremely good life - eat generally what you want, think and say anything you want, public education; life is incredibly great. But talk to some people, I absolutely promise you that you will find someone who, in the face of all that incredible achievement, will be willing to complain about [starving kid in Africa|environmental pollution|dying peacefully of old age|generally any way in which the world is suboptimal]."

That kind of outlook not only doesn't support any kind of progress, or even just utility maximization, it actively paints the very idea of making things even better as presumptuous and evil. It does not serve for something to be merely awe-inspiring; I want more. I want to not just watch a space shuttle launch (which is pretty cool on its own), but also have a drink that tastes better than any other in the world, with all of my best friends around me, while engaged in a thrilling intellectual conversation about strategy or tactics in the best game ever created. While a wizard turns us all into whales for a day. On a spaceship. A really cool spaceship. I don't just want good; I want the best. And I resent the implication that I'm just ungrateful for what I have. Hell, what would all those people that invested the blood, sweat, and tears to make modern flight possible say if they heard someone suggesting that we should just stick to the status quo because "it's already pretty good, why try to make it better?" I can guarantee they wouldn't agree.

Comment author: James_K 02 July 2013 05:38:12AM 6 points [-]

Nonetheless it is important to have a firm grasp on the progress we have already attained. It's easy to go from "we haven't made any real progress" to "real progress is impossible". And so we should acknowledge the achievements we have made to date, while always striving to build on them.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 04 March 2013 12:24:26AM 6 points [-]

In nearly all countries you need a permit to build a nuclear reactor, and said permits are frequently denied for political reasons. Not to mention that the biggest risk of building a nuclear power plant is probably having it shutdown by anti-nuclear activists before you can recoup the cost of building it.

Comment author: James_K 04 March 2013 04:06:56AM 7 points [-]

That second point is particularly important. Since present governments cannot reliably bind future governments, credibility is a big issue with any politically-sensitive project with a long time horizon.

Comment author: TimS 02 December 2012 01:59:28AM 1 point [-]

I think this quote might have the analysis backwards. Politicians are not irrational for spouting irrational nonsense - because that is what voters want to hear. I'm not sure if that is accurately described as "epistemically irrational" because some of the politicians probably know what the correct answers are.

None of that creates incentives on voters to be epistemically irrational - except for game-theoric reasons. There certainly are costs to voters being epistemically irrational (assuming one believes there are meaningful differences between the political parties - which may not be the local consensus.

Comment author: James_K 03 December 2012 07:53:35AM 4 points [-]

Except that an individual vote have a negligible effect on who wins an election, so voters have no incentive to figure out which political party best represents their goals.

Comment author: [deleted] 09 November 2012 05:48:02PM *  1 point [-]

Assuming the “margin of error” is one sigma, that's a 75% probability of Obama winning, which hardly qualifies as “much higher” IMO.

EDIT: Retracted. If, as James_K says, the margin of error is 1.96 sigma, that's a 90% probability for Obama.

In response to comment by [deleted] on Rationality Quotes November 2012
Comment author: James_K 10 November 2012 10:10:33AM 2 points [-]

The normal margin of error on a political opinion poll would be 1.96 sigma - a 95% confidence interval (that's how you'd get a margin of error of just over 3 percentage points on a poll of 1000 people.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 30 August 2012 08:44:49AM 3 points [-]

I detect a contradiction between "brevity not seen as virtue" and "they couldn't afford paragraphs".

Comment author: James_K 31 August 2012 06:43:47AM 0 points [-]

Yes, I don't think "couldn't afford paper" is a good explanation, books of this nature were for wealthy people anyway.

Comment author: [deleted] 03 August 2012 05:17:08PM *  6 points [-]

I concur, with the proviso that "nice technology" must also include the idea compression style of Twitter.

Also, if paper was so expensive, why the hell did they overwrite so much? Status-driven fashion?

In response to comment by [deleted] on Rationality Quotes August 2012
Comment author: James_K 03 August 2012 09:52:36PM 2 points [-]

I think much of it is that brevity simply wasn't seen as a virtue back then. There were far fewer written works, so you had more time to go through each one.

Comment author: wedrifid 06 March 2012 11:02:25AM 0 points [-]

Efficient has a very specific meaning in economics (well, two specific meanings, depending on what kind market you're talking about).

I know of three, although it is a matter of parametrization (weak, strong, semi-strong). What two meanings do you have in mind?

Comment author: James_K 06 March 2012 05:51:15PM 2 points [-]

The three you mention are all subtypes of the same efficiency - informational efficiency. Informational efficiency is used in finance and refers to how well a financial market incorporates information into prices. Basically a market is informationally efficient if you can't out-predict without using information it doesn't have. The weak / semi-strong / strong distinction merely indicates how much information it is incorporating into prices: weak means it's incorporating it's own past prices, semi-strong includes all public information, and strong includes all information held in private as well.

The other type of efficiency is allocative efficiency, a concept used in microeconomics. An allocatively efficient market is one that assigns goods to the people who place the highest value on them (subject to the constraints of each person's endowments). It is effectively a utility-maximising condition. The whole concept of market failure in economics is built around situations where markets are failing to be allocatively efficient.

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