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I think Adams accepted this theory on Trump would cost him money.
Why do you think it costs him money? Adam is a blogger. He get's money from doing things that grab attention.
I think he made far more from giving corporate speeches (based on his Dilbert fame) than he ever will from blogging. Adams has said that his association with Trump has destroyed his speech making side-business.
So you think he assigns a lower probability to Trump winning than someone unfamiliar with his argument might suppose? In theory he might have lost more than 2mill * 0.38 = 760000, but the higher that probability goes the worse your argument sounds.
No, I think Adams assigns a higher probability to Trump winning than most people do. I think Adams accepted this theory on Trump would cost him money.
Has there been a description of what specific advanced persuasion techniques Trump has been using? Or why they work powerfully on some people and not others?
In response to
[Link] My Interview with Dilbert creator Scott Adams
Note that Adams is using persuasion tactics in the interview itself. The most obvious trick is that he describes himself as being objective (he doesn't care about Trump vs Clinton) and altruistic (because he's wealthy and older), making it more likely for us to believe the other things he has to say.
My guess is that Adams is hoping that Trump wins the election, because he will then write a book about persuasion and how Trump's persuasion skills helped him win. He already has a lot of this material on his blog. In that scenario he can capitalize on his correct prediction, which seemed radical at the time, to generate a lot of publicity for the book. Persuasion is a topic of perennial interest, and Adams is a skilled expositor. So there's a good chance that a Trump win will mean a multi-million dollar payoff for Adams.
I actually like Adams and think he's a smart guy, but I doubt he's much more altruistic and objective than everyone else. ;-)
I agree with your first paragraph, but Adams has described how his Trump writing has decimated his ability to earn money as a public speaker because people who hire such speakers want to avoid controversy. Adams appearing on the podcast of an obscure college professor was an act of altruism.
In response to
Now is the time to eliminate mosquitoes
According to Technology Review Gates is targeting 2029 for releasing gene drive mosquitoes.
Imagine after defeating the Nazis we decided to wait 13 years before closing their death camps.
[Link] My Interview with Dilbert creator Scott Adams
In the second half of the interview we discussed several topics of importance to the LW community including cryonics, unfriendly AI, and eliminating mosquitoes.
https://soundcloud.com/user-519115521/scott-adams-dilbert-interview
it looks like this is a big boost to the simulation argument.
It could be that you only get civilizations "in universes is governed by a tiny subset of all possible functions" because else wise either evolution can't "discover" how to create intelligent life, or evolved intelligent life can't figure out science.
In response to
Stupid Questions September 2016
I'm having trouble sending a text message with an ipad and iphone? The recipient isn't receiving the text. What are the sources of error other than wrong number? Also, are you supposed to input the 1 before the 10 digit number? It's U.S. to U.S.
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Can't remember where I saw it, but I think Adams is trying to transition his career to "trusted expert".
He's willing to take the financial hit to make the transition.
Yes