Some of the basic problems will presumably be (partially?) solved with animal research before uploading is tried with humans.
One of the challenges of uploading would be including not just the current record, but also the ability to learn and heal.
Some of the basic problems will presumably be (partially?) solved with animal research before uploading is tried with humans.
One of the challenges of uploading would be including not just the current record, but also the ability to learn and heal.
With regards to animal experimentation before first upload and so on, a running upload is nothing but fancy processing of a scan of, likely, a cadaver brain, legally no different from displaying that brain on computer, and doesn't require any sort of FDA style stringent functionality testing on animals, not that such testing would help for a brain much bigger, with different neuron sizes, and with the failure modes that are highly non-obvious in animals. Nor that such regulation is even necessary, as the scanned upload of dead person, functional enough to recognize his family, is a definite improvement over being completely dead, and to prevent it equates mercy killing accident victims who have good prospect at full recovery, to avoid the mere discomfort of being sick.
The gradual progress on humans is pretty much a certainty, if one is to drop the wide eyed optimism bias. There are enough people who would bite the bullet, and it is not human experimentation - it is mere data processing - it might become human experimentation decades after functional uploads.
Get a whiff of xenon to see what small alteration to electrical properties of the neurons amounts to.
My initial reaction was shock that a heavier-than-air radioactive gas might go into someone's lungs on purpose. It triggers a lot of my "scary danger" heuristics for gases. Googling turned up a bunch of fascinating stuff. Thanks for the surprise! For anyone else interested, educational content includes:
Neat!
Heh. Well, it's not radioactive, the radon is. It is inert but it dissolves in membranes, changing electrical properties.
Or what if the 'mountain people' are utterly microscopic mites on a tiny ball hurling through space. Ohh, wait, that's the reality.
Well, yes I am aware that my scenario is not literally descriptive of the world right now. The purpose is to inspire an intuitive understanding of why the economic reality of a society with strong upload technology would encourage destroying carbon copies of people who have been uploaded.
so I am not very worried about the first upload having any sort of edge.
I am not worried either. Nothing I said assumes a first-mover advantage or hard takeoff from the first mind upload. I'm describing society after upload technology has matured.
I am pretty sure that nearly anyone would be utterly unable to massively self improve on one's own in any meaningful way rather than just screw itself into insanity
I'm certainly not assuming uploads will be self-improving, so it seems you are pretty comprehensively misunderstanding my point. I do assume uploads will become faster, due to hardware improvements. After some time, the ease and low cost of copying uploads will likely make them far more numerous than physical humans, and their economic advantages (being able to do orders of magnitude more work per year than physical humans) will drive wages far below human subsistence standards (even if the wages allow a great lifestyle for the uploads).
That was more a note on the Dr_Manhattan's comment.
With regards to 'economic advantage', the advantage has to outgrow the overall growth for the state of carbon originals to decline. Also, you may want to read Accelerando by Charles Stross.
I'm not clear what we mean by singularity here.
If we have an AGI, it will figure out what problems we need solved and solve them. It may not beat a narrow AI (ANI) in the latter, but it will beat you in the former. You can thus save on the massive losses due to not knowing what you want, politics, not knowing how to best optimize something, etc. I doubt we'd be able to do 1% as well without an FAI as with one. That's still a lot, but that means that a 0.1% chance of producing an FAI and a 99.9% chance of producing a UAI is better than a 100% chance of producing a whole lot of ANIs.
The latter's usefulness (to me, that's it) is incredibly narrow.
Only if his own thing isn't also your own thing.
If we have an AGI, it will figure out what problems we need solved and solve them.
Only a friendly AGI would. The premise for funding to SI is not that they will build friendly AGI. The premise is that there is an enormous risk that someone else would for no particular reason add this whole 'valuing real world' thing into an AI, without adding any friendliness, actually restricting it's generality when it comes to doing something useful.
Ultimately, the SI position is: input from us the idea guys with no achievements (outside philosophy), are necessary for the team competent enough to build a full AGI, to not kill everyone, and therefore you should donate (Previously, the position was you should donate so we build FAI before someone builds UFAI, but Luke Muehlhauser been generalizing to non-FAI solutions). That notion is rendered highly implausible when you pin down the meaning of AGI, as we did in this discourse. For the UFAI to happen and kill everyone, a potentially vastly more competent and intelligent team that SI has to fail spectacularly.
Only if his own thing isn't also your own thing.
Will require simulation of me or a brain implant that effectively makes it extension of me. Do not want the former, and the latter is IA.
It definitely wouldn't be murder, so long as Eliezer agreed to the procedure. At worst it would be assisted-suicide. I would even go a step further and say that it seems plausible that killing the carbon version might be the only sensible long-term economic decision.
Imagine if there were a small number of Mt. Everest-sized humans who needed massive amounts of food to stay alive. They are sentient, but think far more slowly than regular humans. They subjectively experience only a couple days every sidereal year. Because they need so much food, and think so slowly, they can't do much productive work, and to survive they collectively need trillions of dollars of resources donated from the world's governments.
Or what if the 'mountain people' are utterly microscopic mites on a tiny ball hurling through space. Ohh, wait, that's the reality.
sidenote: I doubt mind uploads scale all the way up, and it appears quite likely that amoral mind uploads would be unable to get along with the copies, so I am not very worried about the first upload having any sort of edge. The first upload will probably be crippled and on the brink of insanity, suffering from hallucinations and otherwise broken thought (after massively difficult work to get this upload to be conscious and not to just go into simulated seizure ). From that you might progress to sane but stupefied uploads, with very significant IQ drop. Get a whiff of xenon to see what small alteration to electrical properties of the neurons amounts to. It will take a lot of gradual improvement until there are well working uploads, and even then I am pretty sure that nearly anyone would be utterly unable to massively self improve on one's own in any meaningful way rather than just screw itself into insanity, without supervision; sane person shouldn't even attempt that because if your improvement is making things worse then the next improvement will make things even worse, and one needs external verification.
Mathematically any value that AI can calculate from external anything is a function of sensory input.
Given the same stream of sensory inputs, external reality may be different depending on the AI's outputs, and the AI can prefer one output to another based on their predicted effects on external reality even if they make no difference to its future sensory inputs.
'Vague' presumes the level of precision that is not present here. It is not even vague. It's incoherent.
Even if you were right that valuing external reality is equivalent to valuing sensory input, how would that make it incoherent? Or are you saying that the idea of "external reality" is inherently incoherent?
The 'predicted effects on external reality' is a function of prior input and internal state.
The idea of external reality is not incoherent. The idea of valuing external reality with a mathematical function is.
Note, by the way, that valuing 'wire in the head' is also a type of 'valuing external reality', not in the sense of 'external' as in wire being outside the box that runs AI, but external in sense of wire being outside the algorithm of the AI. When that point is being discussed here, SI seem to magically acquire an understanding of distinction between outside an algorithm and inside of algorithm to argue that wireheading won't happen. The confusion between model and reality appears and disappears at most convenient moments.
A powerful drill doesn't tend to do something significant regardless of how you stop it. Neither does powerful computer. Nor should powerful intelligence.
In this case, I'm defining a powerful intelligence differently. An AI that is powerful in your sense is not much of a risk. It's basically the kind of AI we have now. It's neither highly dangerous, nor highly useful (in a singularity-inducing sense).
Building an AGI may not be feasible. If it is, it will be far more effective than a narrow AI, and far more dangerous. That's why it's primarily what SIAI is worried about.
nor highly useful (in a singularity-inducing sense).
I'm not clear what we mean by singularity here. If we had an algorithm that works on well defined problems we could solve practical problems. edit: Like improving that algorithm, mind uploading, etc.
Building an AGI may not be feasible. If it is, it will be far more effective than a narrow AI,
Effective at what? Would it cure cancer sooner? I doubt so. An "AGI" with a goal it wants to do, resisting any control, is a much more narrow AI than the AI that basically solves systems of equations. Who would I rather hire: impartial math genius that solves the tasks you specify for him, or a brilliant murderous sociopath hell bent on doing his own thing? The latter's usefulness (to me, that's it) is incredibly narrow.
and far more dangerous.
Besides being effective at being worse than useless?
That's why it's primarily what SIAI is worried about.
I'm not quite sure that there's 'why' and 'what' in that 'worried'.
Do you have a disagreement besides fairly stupid rhetoric? The lack of alternatives is genuinely evidence against SI's cause, whereas presence of alternatives would genuinely make it unlikely that either of them is necessary. Yep, it's very curious, and very inconvenient for you. The logic is sometimes impeccably against what you like. Without some seriously solid evidence in favour of SI, it is a Pascalian wager as the chance of SI making a difference is small.
I'll rephrase: your argument from alternatives is as much bullshit as invoking Dunning-Kruger. Both an argument and its opposite cannot lead to the same conclusion unless the argument is completely irrelevant to the conclusion. If alternatives matter at all, there must be some number of alternatives which reflect better on SI than the other numbers.
Both an argument and its opposite cannot lead to the same conclusion unless the argument is completely irrelevant to the conclusion.
It's not an argument and it's opposite. One of the assumptions in either argument is 'opposite', that could make distinction between those two assumptions irrelevant but the arguments themselves remain very relevant.
I take as other alternatives everyone who could of worked on AI risk but didn't, because I consider it to be an alternative not to work on AI risk now. Some other people take as other alternatives people working on precisely the kind of AI risk reduction that SI works on. In which case the absence of alternatives - under this meaning of 'alternatives' - is evidence against SI's cause - against the idea that one should work on such AI risk reduction now. There should be no way how you can change - against same world - meanings of the words and arrive at different conclusion; it only happens if you are exercising in the rationalization and rhetoric. In electromagnetism if you are to change right hand rule to left hand rule every conclusion will stay the same; in reasoning if you wiggle what is 'alternatives' that should not change the conclusion either.
This concludes our discussion. Pseudologic derived from formal maxims and employing the method of collision (like in this case, colliding 'assumption' with 'argument') is too annoying.
It can only be said to be powerful if it will tend to do something significant regardless of how you stop it. If what it does has anything in common, even if it's nothing beyond "signficant", it can be said to value that.
Actually, this is example of something incredibly irritating about this entire singularity topic: verbal sophistry of no consequence. What do you call 'powerful' has absolutely zero relation to anything. A powerful drill doesn't tend to do something significant regardless of how you stop it. Neither does powerful computer. Nor should powerful intelligence.
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There's a consensus here that conscious computer programs have the same moral weight as people, so getting uploading moderately wrong in some directions is worse than getting it completely wrong.
Legally, a mind upload is only different from any other medical scan in mere quantity, and a simulation of brain is only qualitatively different from any other processing. Just as the cryopreservation is only a form of burial.
Furthermore, while it would seem to be better to magically have the mind uploading completely figured out without any experimentation on human mind uploads, we aren't writing a science fiction/fantasy story, we are actually building the damn thing in the real world where things tend to go wrong.
edit: also, a rather strong point can be made that it is more ethical to experiment on a copy of yourself than on a copy of your cat or any other not completely stupid mammal. The consent matters.