Comment author: aausch 13 December 2009 05:57:28AM 0 points [-]

It might have been more useful to ask for confidence intervals around probabilities. Maybe that should become the standard around here?

That way, I imagine people who did not care so much about the topic/do as much research, would have had a way to indicate the fact.

Comment author: Jawaka 13 December 2009 11:30:39AM 0 points [-]

I feel the same way. I set the probabilities to 25 (not G alone) / 75 (G alone) after half an hour of reading, just because I wanted to have room to be more confident after 2 hours of reading.

Comment author: Blueberry 13 December 2009 07:16:33AM *  5 points [-]

these two things constituting so far as I know the entirety of the physical "evidence" against the couple

I'd like to know your reaction to this argument. There is some other evidence against the "lone wolf" theory and pointing more towards Amanda, specifically that Meredith's bra was removed and the scene rearranged after her death (and not by Rudy), the bloody footprints that match Amanda, and the witness placing all three of them together near the house around the time of Meredith's death.

(Edited to fix formatting)

Comment author: Jawaka 13 December 2009 11:03:26AM 0 points [-]

Have you read the counterarguments from "Friends of Amanda"?

Comment author: JamesAndrix 10 December 2009 10:36:29PM 1 point [-]

I read 'friends of amanda' first, and was definite biased towards her innocence and guede's guilt for much of the rest of my reading. I didn't find anything particularly compelling against knox. The last thing I looked at was the wikipedia article, which knocked down my confidence in guede's guilt a lot. Overall, I think I compensated for the first impression I got.

I'm not so sure I compensated for the fact that the pro-guilt site was stupidly 'think of the poor murdered victim, there has to be justice, and by justice we mean guilty verdicts.' The pro innocence side definitely struck me as more rational.

Comment author: Jawaka 13 December 2009 02:37:06AM 0 points [-]

This.

I was thoroughly annoyed by the sites layout and structure. If your main focus is on pictures of the victim and youtube videos, you don't really have a lot of arguments.

Friends of Amanda looks a lot more professional and the main points are much more condensed.

Estimates at three at night, very tired but sober. First tried to read the pro- and contra-sites, but I was too confused by the layouts and didn't know where to start. Then went on reading WP article and was pretty sure about Guede being the sole perpetrator. Read the other sites again and found the guilty-side very unconvincing, the not-guilty-side much better. The not-guilty-side reminded me specifically of the holocaust deniers tactics which I know very well.

Couldn't force myself to read for longer than 30 minutes in total because I am very tired, might read something tomorrow but not expecting to change my opinion at all.

Knox guilty: 25% Raffaele: 25% Guede: 75% Agreement: 60%

After reading the comments, my estimates changed to 10/10/90

I hope this case goes to a European court or something. It really is a shame.

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