http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joZV0XARmvA - "Is Amanda Knox Guilty?" - NBC produced docu for BBC.
Summary: Guede might be guilty (I don't know), Knox+Sollecito lied to try to get out of trouble, there's interesting DNA evidence with severe technical problems:
a lot of DNA from Solecito (likely making him the one who handled it) on a bra clasp that wasn't collected from the scene until 46 days later. Unfortunately by then there was plenty of incentive by then for authorities to falsify evidence to bolster their extremely weak case.
A tiny trace of Kercher's DNA on a knife in Solecito's apartment - also collected after incentive to falsify (they cheated by running the test when they weren't supposed to due to insufficient amount of material, at the very least).
faint bloody footprints of the right size in the bathroom. not strong evidence of killing and apparently might not even be blood (they didn't collect any, just have illuminator dye photos which can trigger off bleach too).
The rest seems like comparatively unreliable evidence to me. DNA of you, even drops of blood, in your own bathroom? Big deal. Accusations from the convicted killer (Guede)? People pressured by police lied to try to get out of trouble? No surprise. I believe ~90% that neither Knox nor Sollecito killed her or helped cover the killing. Most concerning to me are the reasons given by the authorities - it's mostly pretty lame ("there must have been 3 attackers! there weren't many defensive wounds! kercher knew karate! not even superman could do that alone. and amanda covered her ears!")
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If this is what happened, I'd have said nothing.
What I observed was a discussion of 2 as if it were not really simple.
1 is a very useful conversation. My guess is that, generally, people want to talk about 2 because 1 is the hard part of dieting. If there is someway to hack 2, then you don't need to worry about 1.
In my understanding, there isn't a way to hack 2. But the discussion swirling around the articles on Taubes seemed to be advocating some ideas that seemed bogus and pseudo-scientifc to me, but I trusted LWers on account of the fact they tend to be smarter than I. Since losing weight (rather simply, and by ignoring all the noice I heard here) I've noticed my confidence in LW is lower.
This still is a 1 issue to me. I have dieting tricks I use too. But they aren't somehow negating the simple calorie math that determines weight loss.
As far as carbs, my assumption (that I now feel stronger than ever about) is that carb-restriction diets "work" because Western diets tend to have lots of carbs in them and people are so accustomed. If you make a rule saying you'll not eat carbs, you'd be hard-pressed to come up with enough calories eating non-carb stuff to not lose weight.
I mean, if someone is eating 60-65% of their caloric intake in carbs and then they quit carbs, they'll lose weight.
If someone drinks a 6-back of beer a day and then quits, they'll lose weight on account of consuming fewer calories. But we don't call this the No Beer Diet and pretend something magical is occuring like we do with Atkins and other low carb diets.
You're right to have low confidence in our winning-ness. If we were winning so hard, why would we be so often theorizing about what it takes to win?
Reading and writing well means never having to admit that you didn't do any research before weighing in.