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Journal 'Basic and Applied Psychology' bans p<0.05 and 95% confidence intervals

12 Jonathan_Graehl 25 February 2015 05:15PM

Editorial text isn't very interesting; they call for descriptive statistics and don't recommend any particular analysis.

Comment author: Jonathan_Graehl 29 December 2014 01:44:54AM 1 point [-]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5UAOK1bk74 - shoot, Vassar does really wear slightly-too-large suits. I'll assume that he's A/B tested this to give best results?

Comment author: chaosmage 14 December 2014 11:17:02AM 0 points [-]

The "slightly alien" thing and this:

he kept grimacing as if not quite in control of his face

Comment author: Jonathan_Graehl 29 December 2014 01:34:56AM 0 points [-]

You can (or could) watch EY debating (e.g. w/ that presumptuous jaron lanier guy) over videoconference and like many less-polished speakers he has some visible tics while searching for a thought or turn of phrase while feeling under the gun + not wanting to lose his turn to speak.

Comment author: swfrank 13 December 2014 04:42:50PM 81 points [-]

Hi everyone. Author here. I'll maybe reply in a more granular way later, but to quickly clear up a few things:

-I didn't write the headlines. But of course they're the first thing readers encounter, so I won't expect you to assess my intentions without reference to them. That said, I especially wanted to get readers up to half-speed on a lot of complicated issues, so that we can have a more sophisticated discussion going forward.

-A lot fell out during editing. An outtake that will be posted online Monday concerns "normal startup culture"--in which I went to TechCrunch Disrupt. I don't take LW/MIRI/CFAR to be typical of Silicon Valley culture; rather, a part of Bay Area memespace that is poorly understood or ignored but still important. Of course some readers will be put off. Others will explore more deeply, and things that seemed weird at first will come to seem more normal. That's what happened with me, but it took months of exposure. And I still struggle with the coexistence of universalism and elitism in the community, but it's not like I have a wholly satisfying solution; maybe by this time next year I'll be a neoreactionary, who knows!!

-Regarding the statistics and summary of the LW survey. That section was much longer initially, and we kept cutting. I think the last thing to go was a sentence about the liberal/libertarian/socialist/conservative breakdown. We figured that that various "suggestive statistical irrelevancies" would imply the diversity of political opinion. Maybe we were overconfident. Anyway, after the few paragraphs about Thiel, I tried not to treat libertarianism until the final sections, and even there with some sympathy.

-"Overhygienic," I can see how that might be confusing. I meant epistemic hygiene.

-letters@harpers.org for clarifying letters, please! And I'm sam@canopycanopycanopy.com.


Comment author: Jonathan_Graehl 29 December 2014 01:29:58AM 1 point [-]

I liked the excerpts gwern quoted and see truth (and positive things) in most of it. "Hydra-headed" for EY's writing seems inapt. If you refute one of his essays 3 more will spring up in response?

Not sure what Vassar thinks is 3 in 1000 people - exploring+building boldly? Leadership?

Almost running a red light while buzzed+chatting. Hm. Well, I'm sure we all try to have a healthy respect for the dangers of killing and being killed while driving cars.

In response to Too good to be true
Comment author: Jonathan_Graehl 11 July 2014 10:54:57PM 2 points [-]

Yes, that's suspicious. Good instinct. I'm sure there's some bias against publishing a marginally-significant result that's got a low (outside the framework of the paper's statistical model) prior. I'd bet some of the unlucky ones got file-drawered, and others (dishonestly or not) kept on collecting more data until the noise (I presume) was averaged down.

However, you might be missing that on an iso-P contour, false positives have diminishing effect size as sample size increases.

Comment author: gwern 15 April 2014 05:16:21PM 0 points [-]

The 'towards' scopes over browsing LW, not the rest of the itemized list: '1. developing an ugh-fiend (towards browsing LW); 2. incorporating (and building a business with your new spare time); 3. getting paid (truckloads).'

Comment author: Jonathan_Graehl 22 April 2014 09:57:37PM 0 points [-]

Unambiguous mistake or ambiguous parallel construction? I agree w/ your parse, on grounds of the indisputable goodness of truckloads of money.

0.5% of amazon purchases to a charity of your choice (opt-in)

7 Jonathan_Graehl 02 April 2014 01:55AM

'MIRI' works in the search field when electing a charity to get 0.5% of your https://smile.amazon.com purchases.

Comment author: Yvain 28 February 2014 07:06:26AM *  25 points [-]

This is good stuff!

One addition I would make to your "sleep" section: between 5% and 10% of Americans have moderate or severe sleep apnea, mostly undiagnosed. Untreated sleep apnea more than doubles mortality through a combination of cardiac problems, stroke, and maybe a cancer-promoting effect as well. There are well-known effective treatments for sleep apnea and it is kind of dumb not to get them.

The main symptoms of sleep apnea are excessive snoring, and feeling very tired during the day even if you slept a normal amount the night before. It is most common in obese and older people but sometimes happens in normal-weight and younger people as well. If you think you might have this condition, probably your highest-priority longevity intervention (after quitting smoking, if you do that) is to go to your doctor and get it checked out.

Comment author: Jonathan_Graehl 28 February 2014 07:28:47PM 1 point [-]

I snore when I'm very tired and sleeping on my back (when my jaw relaxes down in that position it's harder to breathe even through nostrils). Any cheap advice for that (besides don't do it)?

Are there harmless allergy meds that would be worth taking for better sleep when I have mild nasal congestion from seasonal pollen etc?

Comment author: Pablo_Stafforini 28 February 2014 02:10:11PM *  2 points [-]

This is a useful post. Thank you for writing it.

You claim that "Eggs and whole milk are very nutrient dense." I think that's quite a controversial statement. Here are the nutrition facts for 100 Calories of whole milk and spinach:

Comment author: Jonathan_Graehl 28 February 2014 07:24:49PM 0 points [-]

Fair point, but how long does it take to eat+digest (cooked or uncooked) 100 calories of spinach compared to 100 calories of whole milk? How much does it cost? Etc.

I agree that you shouldn't count the vitamin-fortification of milk as part of the value unless it turns out that milk is an especially good transport for what's added to it.

Comment author: Jonathan_Graehl 28 February 2014 01:40:01PM 0 points [-]

I don't know anything about testicular cancer, but are self-exams useful for breast cancer? I know that the data argues against mammogram-everyone-annually + the ensuing unnecessary surgeries caused by not-harmful tumors or other false positives - no increase at all in life expectancy and presumably there's a significant psychological (and $) cost.

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