Imagine if there was a financial pundit who kept saying "Something really bad is brewing in the markets and we may be headed for a recession. But we can't know when recessions will come, nobody can predict them". And then every time there was a selloff in the market, they...
Take all the metaphysical models of the universe that any human ever considers. Say there are n number of mutually-incompatible ones. I don't have a good definition of this, so our estimates will vary by orders of magnitude. Start with 1:1 odds, or a 50% chance that one of them...
Katherine Milkman on Twitter notes how far off the epidemiological expert forecasts were in the linked sample: https://twitter.com/katy_milkman/status/1244668082062348291 They gave an average estimate of 20,000 cases. The actual outcome was 122,653 by the stated date in the U.S. That's off by a factor of 6.13, and those were experts. Only...