The interesting question is what measures will pay off best in the long run.

Actually lying about the science might blow up later. On the other hand, saying that we don't know what causes gender dysmorphia, but it begins very young, is not a matter of choice, and gets relieved by living as the gender that feels right to the dysmorphic person-- and living in that way is not harmful-- is harder to say forcefully than to say "born that way".

Are the specific examples that JulianMorrison gave things that are statistically true about girls versus boys. Is it statistically true that girls don't climb trees? (I'm a girl, and tree climbing is awesome!)

Also, there's a difference between what you're talking about (using probability to predict behaviour when you know nothing else about others) and ways to raise children, since parents in part determine the future behaviour of their children. Even if it is statistically true, right now, that girls don't wear Spider-Man suits as often as boys, and get upset rather than angry, I don't think those states are the ideal world states. Treating your children like these stereotypes are true might be a self fulfilling prophecy.

Note that there are some examples that I think would be true. I do think that, on average, girls are more likely to get upset than angry when in a situation of conflict. But not always: I get upset more often, my brother gets angry, my sister gets angry, my dad gets upset. I do think that the average boy, if given a Barbie, is more likely to re-enact battles with it than dress it. But that doesn't mean it's a good parenting strategy to yell at your son because he's an outlier who likes to dress Barbies. (From a purely predictive view, you could probably make a boy happier by giving him something other than a Barbie for his birthday, but that's if you're not the parent and your actions aren't influencing his future preferences.)

Um. Doesn't Star Wars (I take it we're talking about the movie otherwise known as "Episode IV" rather than the whole series) more or less begin with the destruction of an entire planet? And ... is it actually clear that the only way to implement time travel is the one Eliezer describes, and that it's best described as killing everyone involved? It doesn't look that way to me.

But I haven't seen Flight of the Navigator so maybe there are details that nail things down more.

Re [1] I totally noticed that "Flight of the Navigator" is a story about a kidnapped, returned boy who forges a new relationship with his older parents and ex younger, now older brother, and a cute nurse at the government facility, and then kills them all.

To say understanding this spoiled the story for me is an understatement. That movie has more dead people than Star Wars. It's a fricken' tragedy.

BTW: trans being inborn and immutable is a political thing. It is easier to get rights if your discriminated-against attribute is "not your fault" so you can't be "blamed" for it.

Ok, so you admit your movement is willing to lie, BS and corrupt social science for "the greater good". Given that, why should I believe any of the empirical claims your movement makes?

I never said the gun should be loaded ...

In all seriousness, though, you're right. Pulling a gun would be a terrible idea, no matter how much the idea amuses me.

It sounds like you are complaining that people are treating arguments as logical constructions that stand or fall based on their own merit, rather than as soldiers for a grand and noble cause which we must endorse lest we betray our own side.

If that's not what you mean, can you clarify your point better?

Catcalling as teasing is also low-risk, since you aren't offending someone you know, possibly making new enemies.

Also, since it's usually a male(s)-on-female occurrence, there's the superior physical strength of the harassers, often backed by strength in numbers. Suppose the conflict escalates; what could the victim possibly do to the harasser, that the harasser can't return with even greater force? Suppose she has a strong, visible negative reaction; you know what the catcallers will do? Laugh, ridicule and humiliate her. From their point of view, the behavior has all the benefits it could have, and none of the drawbacks. It's as low-risk an offense as you can possibly get.

Maybe that's where one can act to reduce instances of the behavior. Increase expected associated risk by a significant amount. Make it so that it no longer pays off. Unfortunately there seems to be no way to actually enforce a law or norm against street harassment, or to take any action that is both 1) a sufficiently strong deterrent and 2) within the bounds of legality and legitimate self-defense.

Maybe that's where one can act to reduce instances of the behavior. Increase expected associated risk by a significant amount. Make it so that it no longer pays off. Unfortunately there seems to be no way to actually enforce a law or norm against street harassment, or to take any action that is both 1) a sufficiently strong deterrent and 2) within the bounds of legality and legitimate self-defense.

Not sure about self-defense, but it might be legal to pull a gun on them on the basis that you wee afraid of rape or something. That should shut them up.

Then you are perpetuating cissexism.

... how so?

there is no brain scan for trans

The fact that we cannot currently diagnose gender dysphoria [EDIT: in a living subject] with a brain scan does not change the fact that it is caused by a neurological disorder, and as such is biological, not a choice.

if you experience yourself as trans and the scan says "nope" it's the scan that's wrong. The individual is the sole authority and the diagnosis is by telling a shrink what you experience.

Are you saying that cisgendered people should be eligible for gender reassignment surgery and so on, or that any brain-scan based test will be imperfect?