Comment author: Vaniver 11 March 2016 06:08:16PM 2 points [-]

I'm not sure about that. A common complaint about these kinds of games is that the AI's blatantly cheat, especially on higher difficulty levels. I could very well see a market for an AI that could give the human a challenge without cheating.

Several years ago, Backgammon AI was at the point where it could absolutely demolish humans without cheating. My impression is that people hated it, and even if they rolled the dice for the AI and input the results themselves they were pretty sure that it had to be cheating somehow.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 11 March 2016 06:45:39PM *  6 points [-]

May have been a vocal minority. You get some people incorrectly complaining about AI cheating in any game that utilizes randomness (Civilization and the new XCOMs are two examples I know of); usually this leads to somebody running a series of tests or decompiling the source code to show people that no, the die rolls are actually fair or (as is commonly the case) actually actively biased in the human player's favor.

This never stops some people from complaining nonetheless, but a lot of others find the evidence convincing enough and just chalk it up to their own biases (and are less likely to suspect cheating when they play the next game that has random elements).

Comment author: TheAncientGeek 11 March 2016 02:42:55PM *  2 points [-]

Humanity has done more than zero and less that optimality about things like climate change. Importantly, the situation isbelow the immanent existential threat level.

If you are going to complain that alternative proposals face coordination problems, you need to show that yours dont, or you are committing the fallacy of the dangling comparision. If people aren't going to refrain from building dangerously powerful superintellugences, assuming is possible, why would they have the sense to fit MIRIs safety features, assuming they are possible? If the law can make people fit safety features, why cant it prevent them building dangerous AIs ITFP?

no clearly-cut threshold between a "safe" and "dangerous" level of capability

I would suggest a combination of generality and agency. And what problem domain requires both?

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 11 March 2016 06:31:27PM *  3 points [-]

If you allow for autonomously acting AIs, then you could have Friendly autonomous AIs tracking down and stopping Unfriendly / unauthorized AIs.

This of course depends on people developing the Friendly AIs first, but ideally it'd be enough for only the first people to get the design right, rather than depending on everyone being responsible.

Importantly, the situation isbelow the immanent existential threat level.

It's unclear whether AI risk will become obviously imminent, either. Goertzel & Pitt 2012 argue in section 3 of their paper that this is unlikely.

I would suggest a combination of generality and agency. And what problem domain requires both?

Business (which by nature covers just about every domain in which you can make a profit, which is to say just about every domain relevant for human lives), warfare, military intelligence, governance... (see also my response to Mark)

Comment author: [deleted] 11 March 2016 04:00:10PM -1 points [-]

I think you very much misunderstand my suggestion. I'm saying that there is no reason to presume AI will be given the keys to the kingdom from day one, not advocating for some sort of regulatory regime.

In response to comment by [deleted] on AlphaGo versus Lee Sedol
Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 11 March 2016 06:28:08PM 3 points [-]

So what do you see as the mechanism that will prevent anyone from handing the AI those keys, given the tremendous economic pressure towards doing exactly that?

As we discussed in Responses to AGI Risk:

As with a boxed AGI, there are many factors that would tempt the owners of an Oracle AI to transform it to an autonomously acting agent. Such an AGI would be far more effective in furthering its goals, but also far more dangerous.

Current narrow-AI technology includes HFT algorithms, which make trading decisions within fractions of a second, far too fast to keep humans in the loop. HFT seeks to make a very short-term profit, but even traders looking for a longer-term investment benefit from being faster than their competitors. Market prices are also very effective at incorporating various sources of knowledge [135]. As a consequence, a trading algorithmʼs performance might be improved both by making it faster and by making it more capable of integrating various sources of knowledge. Most advances toward general AGI will likely be quickly taken advantage of in the financial markets, with little opportunity for a human to vet all the decisions. Oracle AIs are unlikely to remain as pure oracles for long.

Similarly, Wallach [283] discuss the topic of autonomous robotic weaponry and note that the US military is seeking to eventually transition to a state where the human operators of robot weapons are ‘on the loop’ rather than ‘in the loop’. In other words, whereas a human was previously required to explicitly give the order before a robot was allowed to initiate possibly lethal activity, in the future humans are meant to merely supervise the robotʼs actions and interfere if something goes wrong.

Human Rights Watch [90] reports on a number of military systems which are becoming increasingly autonomous, with the human oversight for automatic weapons defense systems—designed to detect and shoot down incoming missiles and rockets—already being limited to accepting or overriding the computerʼs plan of action in a matter of seconds. Although these systems are better described as automatic, carrying out pre-programmed sequences of actions in a structured environment, than autonomous, they are a good demonstration of a situation where rapid decisions are needed and the extent of human oversight is limited. A number of militaries are considering the future use of more autonomous weapons.

In general, any broad domain involving high stakes, adversarial decision making and a need to act rapidly is likely to become increasingly dominated by autonomous systems. The extent to which the systems will need general intelligence will depend on the domain, but domains such as corporate management, fraud detection and warfare could plausibly make use of all the intelligence they can get. If oneʼs opponents in the domain are also using increasingly autonomous AI/AGI, there will be an arms race where one might have little choice but to give increasing amounts of control to AI/AGI systems.

Miller [189] also points out that if a person was close to death, due to natural causes, being on the losing side of a war, or any other reason, they might turn even a potentially dangerous AGI system free. This would be a rational course of action as long as they primarily valued their own survival and thought that even a small chance of the AGI saving their life was better than a near-certain death.

Some AGI designers might also choose to create less constrained and more free-acting AGIs for aesthetic or moral reasons, preferring advanced minds to have more freedom.

Comment author: Lumifer 11 March 2016 03:51:31PM 1 point [-]

The question was not what is better, the question was whether MIRI is competing in the AGI race.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 11 March 2016 06:24:02PM 6 points [-]

Sure. I wasn't objecting to the "MIRI isn't competing in the AGI race" point, but to the negative connotations that one might read into your original analogy.

Comment author: RaelwayScot 10 March 2016 10:46:47PM *  8 points [-]

Demis Hassabis has already announced that they'll be working on a Starcraft bot in some interview.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 11 March 2016 11:33:44AM 13 points [-]

This interview, dated yesterday, doesn't go quite that far - he mentions Starcraft as a possibility, but explicitly says that they won't necessarily pursue it.

If the series continues this way with AlphaGo winning, what’s next — is there potential for another AI-vs-game showdown in the future?

I think for perfect information games, Go is the pinnacle. Certainly there are still other top Go players to play. There are other games — no-limit poker is very difficult, multiplayer has its challenges because it’s an imperfect information game. And then there are obviously all sorts of video games that humans play way better than computers, like StarCraft is another big game in Korea as well. Strategy games require a high level of strategic capability in an imperfect information world — "partially observed," it’s called. The thing about Go is obviously you can see everything on the board, so that makes it slightly easier for computers.

Is beating StarCraft something that you would personally be interested in?

Maybe. We’re only interested in things to the extent that they are on the main track of our research program. So the aim of DeepMind is not just to beat games, fun and exciting though that is. And personally you know, I love games, I used to write computer games. But it’s to the extent that they’re useful as a testbed, a platform for trying to write our algorithmic ideas and testing out how far they scale and how well they do and it’s just a very efficient way of doing that. Ultimately we want to apply this to big real-world problems.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 11 March 2016 11:30:08AM 12 points [-]

'Yeah, we could maybe have AlphaGo learn everything totally from scratch and reach a superhuman level of knowledge just by playing itself, not using any human games for training material. Of course, reinventing everything that humanity has figured out while playing Go for the last 2,500 years, that's going to take quite a bit of time. Like a few months or so.'

Actually, the AlphaGo algorithm, this is something we’re going to try in the next few months — we think we could get rid of the supervised learning starting point and just do it completely from self-play, literally starting from nothing. It’d take longer, because the trial and error when you’re playing randomly would take longer to train, maybe a few months. But we think it’s possible to ground it all the way to pure learning.

http://www.theverge.com/2016/3/10/11192774/demis-hassabis-interview-alphago-google-deepmind-ai

Comment author: Lumifer 10 March 2016 07:47:14PM 4 points [-]

Not quite. The others are not running around in random directions, they are all running in a particular direction and MIRI is saying "Hold on, guys, there may be bears and tigers and pits of hell at your destination". Which is all fine, but it still is not running.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 11 March 2016 11:26:25AM 3 points [-]

Still better than running into all the bears and tigers and getting eaten, particularly if it lets you figure out the correct route eventually.

Comment author: [deleted] 10 March 2016 09:42:40PM -2 points [-]

They're working on figuring out what we want the AGI to do

Aka friendliness research. But why does that matter? If the machine has no real effectors and lots of human oversight, then why should there even be concern over friendliness? It wouldn't matter in that context. Tell a machine to do something, and it finds an evil-stupid way of doing it, and human intervention prevents any harm.

Why is it a going concern at all whether we can assure ahead of time that the actions recommended by a machine are human-friendly unless the machine is enabled to independently take those actions without human intervention? Just don't do that and it stops being a concern.

In response to comment by [deleted] on AlphaGo versus Lee Sedol
Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 11 March 2016 11:23:04AM *  3 points [-]

Humanity is having trouble coordinating and enforcing even global restrictions in greenhouse gasses. Try ensuring that nobody does anything risky or short-sighted with a technology that has no clearly-cut threshold between a "safe" and "dangerous" level of capability, and which can be beneficial for performing in pretty much any competitive and financially lucrative domain.

Restricting the AI's capabilities may work for a short while, assuming that only a small group of pioneers manages to develop the initial AIs and they're responsible with their use of the technology - but as Bruce Schneier says, today's top-secret programs become tomorrow's PhD theses and the next day's common applications. If we want to survive in the long term, we need to figure out how to make the free-acting AIs safe, too - otherwise it's just a ticking time bomb before the first guys accidentally or intentionally release theirs.

Comment author: Lumifer 10 March 2016 07:35:12PM 1 point [-]

Yes, and the point is that MIRI is pondering the situation at the finish line, but is not running in the race.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 10 March 2016 07:42:25PM 3 points [-]

A different analogy would be that MIRI is looking at the map and the compass to figure out what's the right way to go, while others are just running in any random direction.

Comment author: [deleted] 10 March 2016 07:11:27PM -1 points [-]

Which unfortunately presumes that an AGI would be tasked with doing something and given free reign to do so, a truly naïve and unlikely outcome.

In response to comment by [deleted] on AlphaGo versus Lee Sedol
Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 10 March 2016 07:41:34PM 3 points [-]

How does it presume that?

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