Context The Expert Survey on Progress in AI (ESPAI) is a big survey of AI researchers that I’ve led four times—in 2016, then annually: 2022, 2023, and 2024 (results coming soon!) Each time so far it’s had substantial attention—the first one was the 16th ‘most discussed’ paper in the world...
I watched Wicked (the 2024 movie) with my ex and his family at Christmas. My current stance is that it was pretty fun but not especially incredible or deep. I could be pretty wrong—watching movies isn’t my strong suit, but I do like chatting about them afterwards. Some thoughts: 1....
Under present norms, if Alice associates with Bob, and Bob is considered objectionable in some way, Alice can be blamed for her association, even if there is no sign she was complicit in Bob’s sin. An interesting upshot is that as soon as you become visibly involved with someone, you...
You can read Ten arguments that AI is an existential risk by Nathan Young and I at the AI Impacts Blog.
Have the Accelerationists won? Last November Kevin Roose announced that those in favor of going fast on AI had now won against those favoring caution, with the reinstatement of Sam Altman at OpenAI. Let’s ignore whether Kevin’s was a good description of the world, and deal with a more basic...
Brains are like computers in that the hardware can do all kinds of stuff in principle, but each one tends to run through some particular patterns of activity repeatedly. For computers you can change this by changing programs. What are big ways brain ‘software’ changes? Some I can think of:...
Recently, Nathan Young and I wrote about arguments for AI risk and put them on the AI Impacts wiki. In the process, we ran a casual little survey of the American public regarding how they feel about the arguments, initially (if I recall) just because we were curious whether the...