... and what people tend to hear is "I'm a superior thinker to you," or maybe "I'm a part of this group, which ascribes the label 'rationalist' to itself, to make ourselves seem higher status than we really are."
[picture of an arrogant asshole]
Was this intentional?
Edit: Because it's awesome.
Yes. I paid for the perfect stock photo to make this joke, so I'm glad you enjoyed it.
Some people are already using the term "aspiring rationalist".
Personally, I don't like this because it's awkward. What do you call the community?
"The aspiring rationalist community"?
Plus, people are liable to drop the "aspiring" part anyway, because it's a pain to say.
I often seem to run into problems when I use the de facto label for this group. For example, when I say, "I've been hanging out with rationalists lately," I notice that many people immediately go on the defensive. They might ask why you need a group in order to be rational, or they might say that they don't believe that people are inherently rational. Of course, I made none of those claims, I simply indicated that I was hanging out with rationalists.
You might think that "rationalist" is simply a descriptive label, but it carries positive connotations -- and what people tend to hear is "I'm a superior thinker to you," or maybe "I'm a part of this group, which ascribes the label 'rationalist' to itself, to make ourselves seem higher status than we really are."
Why does this matter?
The community doesn't exist in a vacuum; how the community is viewed from the outside matters. As the community grows and as people gain awareness of it, branding becomes important. People talk to each other, and communities gain reputations. Even if you believe that we are a loose collection of individuals, as soon as you assign a name to yourself, that is sufficient to form a group identity.
The people we interact with tend to share similar interests. The population of New York may be in the millions, and yet I run into the same people at different functions without coordination.
The more negative perceptions associated with a group, the more rapidly evaporative cooling of groups will occur.
What to do?
It's far better to talk about good things that you've gained from being in the group. It's better to say what the group does, not what the group is.
But beyond that, it's about time the community picked a better label to use. I have one idea, but I'll hold off on proposing solutions.
FYI, Bug report: The push-pull experiment is illustrated by a diagram of the future discounting experiment.
EDIT: It is fixed now.
I think the Millennium Prize Problems isn't the best example in this context, because for the one problem that was solved in that set, the prize was rejected.
I actually think it is rare for houses to lose value, especially over a few years. But I might well be missing something.
Yes, there was recently a housing "bubble" where many did lose value. My understanding is that the typical case there was a house that went up 40% in value from 2000 to 2007, then plummeted to its 2000 value. Sucks if you buy in 2007 I suppose.
And there are instances where an individual house can lose significant amounts of value. It could become unintentionally mobile, for example.
Note that if the Fed raises interest rates, credit will become more expensive, demand will decrease, and prices will decrease (all else equal).
In the United States, mortgages with fixed rates are better right now (if you stay in your house) because interest rates are extremely low right now. If you take an ARM, you will lose if you stay in your house, because interest rates are bound to rise.
If you select a 30-year mortgage, you will pay more overall. But it turns out that you only need to beat a 2-3% annualized return (assuming you took out a fixed-rate loan at interest rates right now) with the extra money you save every month in order for a 30-year mortgage to beat a 15-year mortgage. Of course, that's assuming you have the willpower to set aside that money every month and the time and effort required to invest it.
If you select a 30-year mortgage, you always have the option of paying extra each month. In fact, if you paid 45% extra each month, you would finish it off in 15 years, and it would in fact be equivalent to a 15-year mortgage, except costing only 8% more overall (or a mere 0.5% per year). The reason a 30-year mortgage costs more is not mainly due to the higher interest rate -- it is because most of your initial payments go towards the interest, as opposed to the principal -- the interest isn't reduced at first, and it also has 15 more years to compound.
Consider getting a 30-year mortgage if you expect any sort of volatility in your financial situation, as the price for such convenience is quite cheap. Note that this only applies if you have either the willpower to pay the extra amount every month, or the energy to find a superior investment with the extra money you are saving. A 15-year mortgage would be better for someone with e.g., severe akrasia issues.
Look into purchasing as many points as you can on your mortgage if you plan on staying in your house for at least 11-14 years. Do some analysis to figure out the break-even point for your situation. Note that banks profit because most people overestimate how long they will stay in their house. The average in the US is 5-7 years.
Look at the amortization formula (or use the PMT function in Excel) and run the analysis yourself -- it's too important to not bother. Put in different amounts of down pay, different interest rates, different amounts of extra monthly payments, etc., so that you gain a feel of the relative effects of the different factors.
Finally, please call it a "house", not a "home".
If a statement is false, that's the worst thing you can say about it.
-- Paul Graham
Out of interest, what happened when someone noticed you were stalking them?
The thing is, when you pick your target, you're going to pick someone who is unaware of their surroundings. By the time you're stalking them, it's too late for them. They're not going to notice you because you've selected for that.
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Great post. See also this related post by Eliezer.
Another related post by Eliezer.