Hi there; welcome to LessWrong! If you haven't done so already, I recommend reading the post on Applause Lights. You might also want to make a top-level comment in the current welcome thread.

At a glance, the thrust of this post is a bit too vague to be a Discussion post in and of itself -- I think that it would be better suited to an Open Thread. I'm aware that I'm likely not being clear enough to bridge the inferential gap here, but I hope that the pointer is better than nothing. With that, I'm tapping out.

but on the other hand, how would we feed all those people? What if the world's resources run out? As a transhumanist, I believe that we can use science to prevent things like death, but nature wasn't designed to support a population like that.

If we enter an era where we're able to put a stop to the aging process, we'll mostly also be in a massively more affluent time, where concerns about resources running out etc would be much less relevant.

Hi! I'm Ciara (pronounced like Keara-Irish spelling is very muh irrational!) I've actually been a member of less wrong for a little while-I discovered it through HPMOR. I've always liked academics, challenging books, and Harry Potter, so I joined Less Wrong. I am a little ashamed to admit that I was quite intimidated by the sheer intellect and extraordinary thoughts that came from so many members all around the world. So, I took a little break after starting with the basics of rationality and am now a very different, though still amateur rationalist, person. I live in MA, not far from MiT, and I'm hoping to attend a meet up sometime. I'm sixteen years old, and going into my junior year of highschool. Both of my parents are Irish, and I usually spend about a quarter of my year there with family, so I tend to use some bizzare expressions. I'm also a dancer; I participate in musical theatre and jazz principally. I'm an aspiring author currently some 30,000 odd words into my latest attempt at a novel. I'm trying to incorporate some rationality into the characters; although not rationalist genre, like HPMOR, I'm at least trying to ensure that no one is holding the idiot ball. I'm a little nervous about rejoining the rationalist community, but I hope that by, say, Newtonmas, that my rationality will have improved enough for me to start posting. Look forward to working with you!

But isn't that what Harry "hears" when he thinks in the personalities of Gryffindor, Hufflepuff, and Slytherin? (with Gryffindor and Hufflepuff usually tag-teaming?) If not, what does it mean? I'm guessing that it is his imagination (not, for example, Voldemort's Horcrux talking to him), but why else would E.Y. insert it into this story?

Well, this is why Harry's models of others are bad. Because he assumes they just have the one Slytherin/Grffindor/Hufflepuff/Ravenclaw that they listen to. He underestimates people because of it. I mean, check out what Hermione says about him in chapter 31.

As for E.Y. inserting those, it's great for narrative; it's a much more dynamic way of showing a character grappling with their inner doubt than them just sitting there and feeling conflicted (I swear I've seen that term in so many fanfics). I also think it's a holdover from Shinji and Warhammer 40k, another popular fanfiction I believe E.Y. is familiar with. Even though it's not as overtly rationalist as HPMoR, it's got many elements of a rationalist worldview.

The underlying theory- that Houses correspond to aptitudes / personalities rather than goals- is mistaken. That's something Harry is mistaken about it too, so don't feel too bad about that. (That's one of the reasons he's so bad at modeling others.)

Your other observations appear correct, and the outcomes you list are all plausible (though obviously not exhaustive). None of them strike me as particularly probable (except for the OR statement which encompasses most outcomes- the other option is that Dumbledore wants Harry's rage, just like Quirrel might, and so is deliberately not saving Hermione). Quirrel is a primary suspect behind this plot against Hermione, and gets more out of the Harry who has declared war on Wizarding Britain than the Harry who is grateful that Hermione was saved. McGonagall does not have the hero's disease that everything is her fault, and so is unlikely to see this event as under her control, and is thus unlikely to intervene.

Similarly, Lucius is probably Snape's closest friend at this point, given Snape's new understanding of Dumbledore's motives and lowered connection to Harry. Snape might have a crush on Hermione, but I don't think we have evidence to that effect and he would have to be totally mad in love to go against the Wizengamot.

Lucius is sane, according to Harry, but seems to be beyond reason

This is standard game theory. Read some Schelling.

If we observe, most things that are factual questions are indisputable by intelligent people; for example, "Is the Earth round?" is a question that anyone who is fortunate enough to have some basic intelligence and an elementary school education is unlikely to argue. However, in order to have an opinionated question, one opens the can of worms that is mind killing and biased. For example, if you had two towns side by side, populated by young adults of equal intelligence and equal education, and they each had a sports team that competed against the other town's, those people living in each town would claim their team to be superior, without evidence other than "I live in this town." Hence, bias.

I was thinking about Harry's four sides: Gryffindor, Hufflepuff, Ravenclaw, and Slytherin. He's already tried Ravenclaw (presenting logic and rationality, thinking through his options) and Slytherin (plotting against Lucius Malfoy in front of the Wizgov.-"you do not want me as your enemy") But his Hufflepuff (strong loyalty to Hermione as a friend) refuses to allow him to give up, and I think his Ravenclaw and Slytherin sides will shout down the Gryffindor option (destroy the dementor with his patronus). However, E.Y. said "figure it out from there" so that implies we already have enough information. So, if we analyze it this way, we can observe:

• Harry is not the only person with these four house sides

• Dumbledore is not pulling anything out of a hat OR Dumbledore lied to Harry

• Lucius is sane, according to Harry, but seems to be beyond reason

• the Wizgov. is biased due to bloodlines

• Quirell is detained

• McGonagall is sitting next to Harry and is afraid/not powerful enough/not desperate enough (yet) to help

• We have not heard from Snape in quite awhile

Therefore, we can conclude that any one of these given possible outcomes has some chance of possibility, but some are more probable than others.

• Draco, Snape, or Quirrell will turn to one of their other house sides (Gryffindor or Hufflepuff rather than Slytherin or Ravenclaw-Draco catching Hermione, Draco's loyalty to Harry, Snape's love for/loyalty to Lily, Quirrell escaping to help Harry (he awarded those points to Hermione) )

• Dumbledore is lying to Harry and will save her at the last minute OR Dumbledore is not powerful/rational enough

• Quirrell is unable to help OR Quirrell will overcome the Auror (perhaps with use of the Killing Curse? losing some of Harry's trust)

• McGonagall loves Harry and Hermione even though they are not in her house, so she is either unable to help OR so desperate that she will save the day

• Snape will step in out of love for Draco, fear/respect for Harry, love for Lily, aid of Dumbledore, or respect for Hermione, which means that Snape was either brainwashed when yelling at Hermione in the Great Hall or it was part of a larger Slytherin plot

OR

• Snape is behind it, and unlike canon is actually evil, and Harry and/or Quirrell exposes him

I am very long winded. My apologies.