Comment author: Capla 21 February 2015 05:26:43AM 0 points [-]

Why is this on Vimeo instead of Youtube? I can adjust the play-speed on YT videos.

Comment author: Liron 22 February 2015 12:19:00AM 3 points [-]
Comment author: caffemacchiavelli 11 February 2015 03:18:55PM *  1 point [-]

I enjoyed it, thanks for sharing. (Btw, are there more general, practical utility lectures like this?)

When you talk about being underwhelmed with other students, could you go into detail what criteria you'd specifically assess when making that judgment?

I've noticed that most intellectual doujins tend to think of themselves as particularly special and of other people as not quite as much, even if the empirical evidence isn't all that convincing (Mensa can be notoriously bad about this, so is the "I have goals!" self-help crowd), so I always take some time to look at the actual data before adopting a similar belief.

Comment author: Liron 11 February 2015 10:21:19PM 2 points [-]

Re general lectures, I also have a couple more of my own at liron.me/talks.

Comment author: caffemacchiavelli 11 February 2015 03:18:55PM *  1 point [-]

I enjoyed it, thanks for sharing. (Btw, are there more general, practical utility lectures like this?)

When you talk about being underwhelmed with other students, could you go into detail what criteria you'd specifically assess when making that judgment?

I've noticed that most intellectual doujins tend to think of themselves as particularly special and of other people as not quite as much, even if the empirical evidence isn't all that convincing (Mensa can be notoriously bad about this, so is the "I have goals!" self-help crowd), so I always take some time to look at the actual data before adopting a similar belief.

Comment author: Liron 11 February 2015 10:20:11PM 4 points [-]

Ok, here's why I think SPARC students would be underwhelmed by college students.

Regarding measurable facts, I'd estimate that:

  • Compared to the median UC Berkeley student, the median SPARC participant can spend 3x less time studying any material to get the same test score.

  • Compared to the median UC Berkeley student, the median SPARC participant's expected cumulative income in the next 20 years is about 3x as much.

My point is that if you want to reach your potential in life, you want to calibrate your peer group to challenge you. And something like a factor of 3x isn't calibrated.

That said, of course there are also ways in which the average SPARC participant is somewhat inferior to the average person, like making a good social first impression. But if the SPARC person can manage to train their conscious focus on that or any other area of weakness, I'd usually bet on them being able to surpass their non-SPARC peers in that area.

Intelligence is the smartphone of talents. Sure you can have other possessions, but usually the single best thing to have is a smartphone.

Comment author: MathiasZaman 10 February 2015 12:53:26PM 8 points [-]

I very much enjoyed the video. It's stuff like this that makes me wish I had known about rationality and Less Wrong when I was fifteen/sixteen.

I loved the energy you brought to the talk. It was very contagious and I need to find a way to get the sort of energy I have after watching this video without having too watch hour-long videos.

Comment author: Liron 10 February 2015 06:21:29PM 2 points [-]

Thanks!

Comment author: Vaniver 09 February 2015 11:53:33PM 6 points [-]

Overall, enjoyed the talk! Thanks for posting it.

I'm not sure if I would have done the Emperor has no clothes bit the same way. In particular, I probably would have put it after the epistemology section; it's easier to say "yep, no God, move on" after saying what it means to know or prove something. (I'm not sure you do that all that well, though, and then the question at the end suggests that even if you had led with crossing off God in the epistemology section people's feathers may have been ruffled.)

As for the history of the lecture, it's right there in the name (well, if you know Latin). It's that books are too expensive for everyone to have one, and so the professor will read the one copy of the book aloud while all the students listen (and take notes). Yes, videos and textbooks are a superior technology given the modern economy.

I also feel like a talk for teens should expect a lot of snark, and it didn't look like you did. :P In particular, whenever you give the advice to be specific, you should be prepared to be specific.

Comment author: Liron 10 February 2015 12:17:02AM -1 points [-]

I don't know Latin so I'm guessing "lecture" is Latin for "lost purpose"? That's great, thanks for educating me.

Comment author: Vaniver 09 February 2015 11:53:33PM 6 points [-]

Overall, enjoyed the talk! Thanks for posting it.

I'm not sure if I would have done the Emperor has no clothes bit the same way. In particular, I probably would have put it after the epistemology section; it's easier to say "yep, no God, move on" after saying what it means to know or prove something. (I'm not sure you do that all that well, though, and then the question at the end suggests that even if you had led with crossing off God in the epistemology section people's feathers may have been ruffled.)

As for the history of the lecture, it's right there in the name (well, if you know Latin). It's that books are too expensive for everyone to have one, and so the professor will read the one copy of the book aloud while all the students listen (and take notes). Yes, videos and textbooks are a superior technology given the modern economy.

I also feel like a talk for teens should expect a lot of snark, and it didn't look like you did. :P In particular, whenever you give the advice to be specific, you should be prepared to be specific.

Comment author: Liron 10 February 2015 12:10:33AM 4 points [-]

You're right, I totally knew I should have included an example. I actually made the presentation last minute. Good for them for calling me out.

For the God part, I just wish I was more tactful just because I know some people find it highly offensive. So at the least I could have been empathic to it by saying "I know this feels terrible to hear".

Wisdom for Smart Teens - my talk at SPARC 2014

15 Liron 09 February 2015 06:58PM

I recently had the privilege of a 1-hour speaking slot at SPARC, a yearly two-week camp for top high school math students.

Here's the video: Wisdom for Smart Teens

Instead of picking a single topic, I indulged in a bunch of mini-topics that I feel passionate about:

  1. Original Sight
  2. "Emperor has no clothes" moments
  3. Epistemology is cool
  4. Think quantitatively
  5. Be specific / use examples
  6. Organizations are inefficient
  7. How I use Bayesianism
  8. Be empathizable
  9. Communication
  10. Simplify
  11. Startups
  12. What you want
I think the LW crowd will get a kick out of it.

 

 

 

 

Comment author: trifith 13 January 2015 09:09:22PM 3 points [-]

This is, IIRC the long aftermath of the 3rd major bubble. One in June 2011 (to ~$30), one in April 2013 (To ~$220) and one in November 2013 (To ~$1100).

Personally, I'm not expecting a major recovery until the protocol hits the next halving of the mining rate, which is July of 2016 on the current mining timetable. In the mean time, I'm dollar cost averaging my investment in Bitcoin, and stacking up whatever I can get.

Comment author: Liron 13 January 2015 10:56:38PM 2 points [-]

What's the point of dollar cost averaging? Why not just pick a % of your asset allocation that you want in Bitcoin and rebalance from 0% up to that ASAP? I see this as a special case of the virtue of rebalancing as often as possible.

Comment author: gwern 26 July 2014 09:21:15PM *  5 points [-]

I wonder how much this differs from person to person. I tried correlating 2.5 years of data (when I got up from bed with my self-ratings of productivity for that day), and looking at the LOESS & cubic fits, it seems merely like getting up a bit after 8AM correlates with productivity but later is worse and earlier is much worse (albeit with limited sampling):

Self-rating vs rise time, <em>n</em>=841

And it's not hard to tell a non-causal or reverse-causation story: I can't be very eager to wake up and get started on work if I'm willing to sleep in to 10AM, now can I...? So I dunno. Maybe it's literally more time from simple sleep deprivation.

That said, I'll have to remember to recheck this later; I'm trying out caffeine pills for causing earlier rising, so if earlier rising itself causes more productivity, there should be an attenuated effect from the caffeine.

Comment author: Liron 30 July 2014 10:23:09PM 1 point [-]

Haha nice graph, good luck.

Comment author: Lumifer 08 January 2014 02:04:25AM 1 point [-]

But in my example, it seems possible to have a guaranteed-positive-return trading strategy: investing say 10% of your portfolio in BTC, and constantly trading as required to rebalance your 10% asset allocation.

You assume trading. Who will be your counterparty?

Comment author: Liron 13 January 2014 11:50:52PM 0 points [-]

Wat? A liquid market is a standard assumption.

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