This isn't exactly what you're asking for, but I doubt there is a P(personality type | trait) table anywhere. You're talking about a high-dimensional space and a single trait does not have much predictive power in isolation.
And yet, this is exactly what personality tests must rely on and the sort of thing that we are doing when we follow the advice in the post. Access to even the raw data used when creating the 'big five' would be useful.
No, the article specifically warns against using a single trait. It gives specific examples of how a single trait can mean very different things. It takes a cluster of traits to establish something useful.
If you want to pursue getting the data, though, you could try to derive something like a table of probabilities from a self scored 'Big Five' test, like the one in the appendix of this review paper. From that same review paper you can also find the papers and data sets that gave rise to five factor personality analysis.
edit: fixed the link.
Reading this makes me really wish I had access to some data. p(personality type | trait). That would make reading people as easy as counting cards in blackjack! Surely there is this kind of data out there... and if not why not?!
You might find something like this in market research. Certainly the sort of analysis that predicts which advertisements are relevant to a user on sites like Facebook would be similar to this. Trying to answer a question like "Which advertisement will the user be most receptive to given this cluster of traits?", where the traits are your likes / dislikes / music / etc.
This isn't exactly what you're asking for, but I doubt there is a P(personality type | trait) table anywhere. You're talking about a high-dimensional space and a single trait does not have much predictive power in isolation.
Can anyone recommend a good book or long article on bargaining power? Note that I am NOT looking for biographies, how-to books, or self-help books that teach you how to negotiate. Biographies tend to be outliers, and how-to books tend to focus on the handful of easily changeable independent variables that can help you increase your bargaining power at the margins.
I am instead looking for an analysis of how people's varying situations cause them to have more or less bargaining power, and possibly a discussion of what effects this might have on psychology, society, or economics.
By "bargaining power" I mean the ability to steer transactions toward one's preferred outcome within a zone of win-win agreements. For example, if we are trapped on a desert island and I have a computer with satellite internet access and you have a hand-crank generator and we have nothing else on the island except that and our bathing suits and we are both scrupulously honest and non-violent, we will come to some kind of agreement about how to share our resources...but it is an open question whether you will pay me something of value, I will pay you something, or neither. Whoever has more bargaining power, by definition, will come out ahead in this transaction.
I'm currently reading Thomas Schelling's Strategy of Conflict and it sounds like what you're looking for here. From this Google Books Link to the table of contents you can sample some chapters.
Lately I've been wondering if a rational agent can be expected to use the dark arts when dealing with irrational agents.
Yes.
For example: if a rational AI (not necessarily FAI) had to convince a human to cooperate with it, would it use rhetoric to leverage the human biases against it?
Yes. (When we say 'rational agent' or 'rational AI' we are usually referring to "instrumental rationality". To a rational agent words are simply symbols to use to manipulate the environment. Speaking the truth, and even believing the truth are only loosely related concepts.
Would a FAI?
Almost certainly, but this may depend somewhat on who exactly it is 'friendly' to and what that person's preferences happen to be.
That agrees with my intuitions. I had some series of ideas that ware developing around the idea that exploiting biases was sometimes necessary, and then I found:
Eliezer on Informers and Persuaders
I finally note, with regret, that in a world containing Persuaders, it may make sense for a second-order Informer to be deliberately eloquent if the issue has already been obscured by an eloquent Persuader - just exactly as elegant as the previous Persuader, no more, no less. It's a pity that this wonderful excuse exists, but in the real world, well...
It would seem that in trying to defend others against heuristic exploitation it may be more expedient to exploit heuristics yourself.
Lately I've been wondering if a rational agent can be expected to use the dark arts when dealing with irrational agents. For example: if a rational AI (not necessarily FAI) had to convince a human to cooperate with it, would it use rhetoric to leverage the human biases against it? Would a FAI?
Lately I've been wondering if a rational agent can be expected to use the dark arts when dealing with irrational agents. For example: if a rational AI (not necessarily FAI) had to convince a human to cooperate with it, would it use rhetoric to leverage the human biases against it? Would an FAI?
That is good advice.
A friend of mine video taped his conversations with people. (By which I mean, there was a video recording of some event, and he left it on following, to capture his social interactions.) In this way, he was able to see not just things he said, but also gauge people's reactions to his body language. He said it was difficult to watch at first, but had a huge benefit to his social skills.
Video taping may not be the preferred way to go about it, but there is something to be said for reflection. While you are unlikely to get better without practice, merely sinking time into conversation won't necessarily help, and may harm you. Without analyzing your attempts, even if it's only a brief list of what went well and what didn't, you may be practicing and learning bad habits. 100 ungraded math problems doesn't make you better at math, and 100 uncoached squats may injure you.
Take a few moments after conversations to assess at least what went well and what didn't. If you have access to an honest friend, you can do even better. Converse with a third party (your friend can participate or merely be near enough to observe) and run a sort of post-conversation analysis later. Treat it like any other skill you're serious about learning. I've seen this help more than one struggling introvert.
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d){kind=logo}
= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
-- Hunter S. Thompson