I recommend the influential work on Bayes done by Tim and Lydia McGrew.
Past Less Wrong discussion did not paint a favorable picture of their 'Bayesian apologetics': arbitrarily restricted sets of hypotheses, abuse of dubious infinite-strength independence assumptions, etc.
r_claypool provided some good links in that thread that addressed those issues. Additionally Lydia and Tim McGrew have penned a number of posts and papers dealing with the issues you raise.
I actually think that the topic could prove fruitful at a gathering in Salt Lake. Apply Bayesian principles and also discuss topics such as "belief in belief" and "fake explanations" prior to engaging the topic of Bayesian Mormon Apologetics.
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I hope you're not the only one with the perception of week meet ups in SLC.
We will be STRONG in the ways of the force... there was only ONE previous announcement, and the reason why it "didn't amount to anything" is because I didn't think there would be anyone interested so I was just gathering information. And then there were about 15 or 20 people who replied, so believe me, there are enough people interested
Re: Mormonism. I totally agree. I don't want a LW meetup having anything to do with Mormonism, but in the previous announcement, about four people expressed interest... regardless, I've edited the original announcement. If a LW Meetup is to discuss a mindkiller like religion, let it to be after several meetings, I feel.
"I don't want a LW meetup having anything to do with Mormonism..."
Weak. It would be a good chance to discuss the proper use of priors, belief in belief, and curiosity stoppers - key LW themes. Those would help the group advance along more fruitful lines of communication.