If you care about suffering, you don't stop caring just because you learn that there are no objectively right numerical tradeoff-values attached to the neural correlates of consciousness.
I wasn't suggesting giving up on ethics, I was suggesting giving up on utilitarianism.
This is only problematic if you want to do something else, e.g. find a universally valid solution that all other minds would also agree with. I suspect that this isn't possible.
I think there are other approaches that do better than utilitarianism at its weak areas.
I don't see how hybrid theorists would solve the problem of things being "guesswork" either. In fact, there are multiple layers of guesswork involved there: you first need to determine in which cases which theories apply and to what extent, and then you need to solve all the issues within a theory.
Metaethically, hybrid theorists do need to figure out which theories apply where, and that isnt guesswork.
At the object level, it is quite possible, at the first approximation, to cash out your obligations as whatever society obliges you to do -- deontologists have a simpler problem to solve.
I still don't see any convincing objections to all the arguments I gave when I explained why I consider it likely that deontology is the result of moral rationalizing. The objection you gave about aggregation doesn't hold, because it applies to most or all moral views.
My principle argument is that it ain't necessarily so. You put forward, without any specific evidence, a version of events where deontology arises out of attempts to rationalise random intuitions. I put forward, without any specific evidence a version of events where widespread deontology arises out of rules being defined socially, and people internalising them. My handwaving theory doesn't defeat yours, since they both have the same, minimal, support, but it does show that your theory doesn'thave any unique status as the default or only theory of de facto deontology.
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You're making a mistake, in assuming that ethical systems are intended to do what you think they're intended to do. I'm going to make some complete unsubstantiated claims; you can evaluate them for yourself.
Point 1: The ethical systems aren't designed to be followed by the people you're talking to.
Normal people operate by internal guidance through implicit and internal ethics, primarily guilt; ethics are largely and -deliberately- a rationalization game. That's not an accident. Being a functional person means being able to manipulate the ethical system as necessary, and justify the actions you would have taken anyways.
Point 2: The ethical systems aren't just there to be followed, they're there to see who follows them.
People who -do- need the ethical systems are, from a social perspective, dangerous and damaged. Ethical systems are ultimately a fallback for these kinds of people, but also a marker; "normal" people don't -need- ethics. As a rule of thumb, anybody who has strict adherence to a code of ethics is some variant of sociopath. And also as a rule of thumb, some mechanism of taking advantage of these people, who can't know any better, is going to be built into these ethical systems. It will generally take some form akin to "altruism", and is most recognizable when ethical behavior begins to be labeled as selfishness, such as variants of Buddhism where personal enlightenment is treated as selfish, or Comtean altruism.
Point 3: The ethical systems are designed to be flexible
People who have internal ethical systems -do- need something to deal with situations which have no ethical solutions, but nonetheless are necessary to solve. Ethical systems which don't permit considerable flexibility in dealing with these situations aren't useful. But because of sociopaths, who still need ethical systems to be kept in line, you can't just permit anything. This is where contradiction is useful; you can use mutually exclusive rules to justify whatever action you need to take, without worrying about any ordinary crazy person using the same contradictions to their advantage, since they're trying to follow all the rules all the time.
Point 4: Ethical systems were invented by monkeys trying to out-monkey other monkeys
Finally, ethical systems provide a framework by which people can assert or prove their superiority, thereby improving their perceived social rank (what, you think most people here are arguing with an interest in actually getting the right answer?). A good ethical framework needs to provide room for disagreement; ambiguity and contradiction are useful here, as well, especially because a large point of ethical systems is to provide a framework to justify whatever action you happened to take. This is enhanced by perceptions of the ethical framework itself, which is why mathematicians will tend to claim utilitarianism is a great ethical system, in spite of it being a perfectly ambiguous "ethical system"; it has a superficially mathematical rigor to it, so appears more scientific, and lends itself to mathematics-based arguments.
See all the monkeys correcting you on trivial issues? Raising meaningless points that contribute nothing to anybody's understanding of anything while giving them a basis to prove their intelligence in thinking about things you hadn't considered? They're just trying to elevate their social status, here measured by karma points. On a site called Less Wrong, descended from a site called Overcoming Bias, the vast majority of interactions are still ultimately driven by an unconscious bias for social status. Although I admit the quality of the monkey-games here is at times somewhat better than elsewhere.
If you want an ethical system that is actually intended to be followed as-is, try Objectivism. There may be other ethical systems designed for sociopaths, but as a rule, most ethical systems are ultimately designed to take advantage of the people who actually try to follow them, as opposed to pay lip service to them.
Good points. My entire post assumes that people are interested in figuring out what they would want to do in every conceivable decision-situation. That's what I''d call "doing ethics", but you're completely correct that many people do something very different. Now, would they keep doing what they're doing if they knew exactly what they're doing and not doing, i.e. if they were aware of the alternatives? If they were aware of concepts like agentyness? And if yes, what would this show?
I wrote down some more thoughts on this in this comment. As a general reply to your main point: Just because people act as though they are interested in x rather than y doesn't mean that they wouldn't rather choose y if they were more informed. And to me, choosing something because one is not optimally informed seems like a bias, which is why I thought the comparison/the term "moral anti-epistemology" has merits. However, under a more Panglossian interpretation of ethics, you could just say that people want to do what they do, and that this is perfectly fine. I depends on how much you value ethical reflection (there is quite a rabbit hole to go down to, actually, having to do with the question whether terminal values are internal or chosen).