Comment author: Unnamed 30 October 2014 01:24:29AM 7 points [-]

(This is Dan from CFAR again)

We have a fair amount of data on the experiences of people who have been to CFAR workshops.

First, systematic quantitative data. We send out a feedback survey a few days after the workshop which includes the question "0 to 10, are you glad you came?" The average response to that question is 9.3. We also sent out a survey earlier this year to 20 randomly selected alumni who had attended workshops in the previous 3-18 months, and asked them the same question. 18 of the 20 filled out the survey, and their average response to that question was 9.6.

Less systematically but in more fleshed out detail, there are several reviews that people who have attended a CFAR workshop have posted to their blogs (A, B+pt2, C +pt2) or to LW (1, 2, 3). Ben Kuhn's (also linked above under "C") seems particularly relevant here, becaue he went into the workshop assigning a 50% probability to the hypothesis that "The workshop is a standard derpy self-improvement technique: really good at making people feel like they’re getting better at things, but has no actual effect."

In-person conversations that I've had with alumni (including some interviews that I've done with alumni about the impact that the workshop had on their life) have tended to paint a similar picture to these reviews, from a broader set of people, but it's harder for me to share those data.

We don't have as much data on the experiences of people who have been to test sessions or shorter events. I suspect that most people who come to shorter events have a positive experience, and that there's a modest benefit on average, but that it's less uniformly positive. Partly that's because there's a bunch of stuff that happens with a full workshop that doesn't fit in a briefer event - more time for conversations between participants to digest the material, more time for one-on-one conversations with CFAR staff to sort through things, followups after the workshop to work with someone on implementing things in your daily life, etc. The full workshop is also more practiced and polished (it has been through many more iterations) - much moreso than a test session; one-day events are in between (the ones advertised as alpha tests of a new thing are closer to the test session end of the spectrum).

Comment author: MTGandP 30 October 2014 02:41:47AM *  3 points [-]

We send out a feedback survey a few days after the workshop which includes the question "0 to 10, are you glad you came?" The average response to that question is 9.3.

I've seen CFAR talk about this before, and I don't view it as strong evidence that CFAR is valuable.

  • If people pay a lot of money for something that's not worth it, we'd expect them to rate it as valuable by the principle of cognitive dissonance.
  • If people rate something as valuable, is it because it improved their lives, or because it made them feel good?

For these ratings to be meaningful, I'd like to see something like a control workshop where CFAR asks people to pay $3900 and then teaches them a bunch of techniques that are known to be useless but still sound cool, and then ask them to rate their experience. Obviously this is both unethical and impractical, so I don't suggest actually doing this. Perhaps "derpy self-improvement" workshops can serve as a control?

Comment author: [deleted] 24 October 2014 02:54:26PM 43 points [-]

Done, except the digit ratio thing. I still picked a public key and a private key, so that if I get near a scanner or photocopier before November 14 I will submit an otherwise empty survey response with my digit ratios and the same public key and private key as today. Is that OK?

In Political, going only by the descriptions after the colons it looks like Liberal is halfway between Social democratic and Libertarian, and I picked it based on those, but... note that Moldbug also is socially permissive in most all the senses I care about (besides the post I linked, he also supports gay rights) and yet his position doesn't resemble that of the US Democratic Party or the UK Labour Party.

In Less Wrong Use, I rounded my top-level posts down to zero.

In Time on LW and Hours Online, thanks to LeechBlock, I didn't have to pull numbers out of my ass! Likewise for Meditate thanks to Beeminder. OTOH, I answered Books by counting the books I can remember reading and dividing by an anally extracted estimate of the fraction of books I read that I remember.

In the second part of the Calibration questions, does “correct” imply ‘correctly spelled’? My answers are P(correct and correctly spelled) + P(recognizable as the correct answer but misspelled)/2.

In the Mental Health section I took “believe” to mean ‘P > 50%’. Had it said ‘suspect’ instead, I might have answered a couple questions differently.

In the Voting question, I totally wish there were separate answers for ‘Yes, and I would do it again’ and ‘Yes, but I regret that’.

In the Vegetarian question I interpreted “flexitarian” narrowly and answered No, but I do eat much less meat than the average person.

I answered that I'm cis by default, but I would freak out if I woke up in a woman's body. But then again, I also would freak out if I woke up bald, or four inches taller. What I mean by saying that I'm cis by default is that posts like this one almost completely fail to resonate with me.

In Paleo Diet I interpreted “paleo principles” narrowly to only include meta-level principles so I picked the last answer, but if you count object-level principles such as not drinking a can of soda a day, I should have picked the second answer instead.

In Food Substitutes I wished there was an answer for ‘Neither Soylent nor MealSquares ship to my country’.

I'm surprised that in the BSRI male students and female students score so similarly. Did the researchers decide which answers would be masculine or feminine a priori, rather than a posteriori?

In response to comment by [deleted] on 2014 Less Wrong Census/Survey
Comment author: MTGandP 24 October 2014 05:27:38PM 6 points [-]

I answered that I'm cis by default, but I would freak out if I woke up in a woman's body.

I think it's totally reasonable to consider that freaky for reasons other than that you now have to live as a woman. I think the spirit of the question was more, "If you were a woman but had the same personality, would you be okay with that?"

Comment author: Tenoke 24 October 2014 12:31:38PM 36 points [-]

Hmm, I did worse on those calibration questions than I would've expected.

Comment author: MTGandP 24 October 2014 05:24:19PM 7 points [-]

Most people do worse at calibration than they expect, but you can improve with practice. http://predictionbook.com/

Comment author: MTGandP 24 October 2014 05:22:53PM 42 points [-]

Survey complete!

Comment author: IlyaShpitser 30 September 2014 12:45:00PM 1 point [-]

Well, she's only 7.

Comment author: MTGandP 30 September 2014 11:03:05PM 0 points [-]

I'm not sure what you mean. I personally have a mental category of "mythical beings that don't exist but some people believe exist", which includes God, the tooth fairy, Santa, unicorns, etc. This girl appears to have the same mental category, even though she believes in God but doesn't believe in the tooth fairy.

Comment author: seez 14 September 2014 01:33:40AM *  16 points [-]

A conversation between me and my 7-year-old cousin:

Her: "do you believe in God?"

Me: "I don't, do you?"

Her: "I used to but, then I never really saw any proof, like miracles or good people getting saved from mean people and stuff. But I do believe in the Tooth Fairy, because ever time I put a tooth under my pillow, I get money out in the morning."

Comment author: MTGandP 28 September 2014 01:28:14AM 0 points [-]

Interesting that she seems to mentally classify God and the tooth fairy in the same category.

In response to Optimal Exercise
Comment author: Viliam_Bur 10 March 2014 02:16:43PM *  7 points [-]

Suggestions:

Please put the actionable parts into wiki, and then add a link to this article for those who want to see the full explanation. Please add the links to the youtube videos and tutorials (for convenience, but also because an unlucky reader might google some wrong advice).

you'll see dramatic changes in your appearance in 4 months

Are there volunteers to test this program for 4 months and report the results?

Comment author: MTGandP 06 July 2014 10:55:23PM 1 point [-]

Are there volunteers to test this program for 4 months and report the results?

I've been doing Starting Strength for about 3 months. My legs are noticeably larger--jeans that used to fit loosely are now tight around my thighs, and I no longer need to wear a belt. My posture has improved as well. I haven't noticed a visible change in my arms, probably because (a) arms are smaller; (b) Starting Strength emphasizes legs and back more; (c) I haven't been as consistent about increasing the weight I'm lifting with the arms exercises.

In response to Optimal Exercise
Comment author: MTGandP 14 May 2014 10:57:27PM 0 points [-]

Where is a good place to buy weightlifting shoes? What stores carry them?

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 21 January 2014 04:43:34AM 37 points [-]

It only indicates that experienced rationalists and proto-rationalists treat their beliefs in different ways. Proto-rationalists form a belief, play with it in their heads, and then do whatever they were going to do anyway - usually some variant on what everyone else does. Experienced rationalists form a belief, examine the consequences, and then act strategically to get what they want.

Alternate hypothesis: the experienced rationalists are also doing what everyone else (in their community) is doing, they just consider a different group of people their community.

Comment author: MTGandP 17 April 2014 11:57:05PM 0 points [-]

As army1987 said, only a small percentage of experienced rationalists sign up for cryonics, so I wouldn't expect there to be social pressure. I think a more likely explanation is that experienced rationalists feel less social pressure against signing up for cryonics.

In response to comment by MTGandP on Optimal Exercise
Comment author: RichardKennaway 02 April 2014 08:11:57PM 0 points [-]

Leaving aside the vegan issue, why is it necessary to plan to eat more if you exercise more? Won't the exercise make you hungrier and lead to eating whatever you need anyway?

Comment author: MTGandP 04 April 2014 12:03:55AM 0 points [-]

This might just be a personal quirk, but I don't really get hungry—I have no instinct telling me "you need to eat right now." If I don't plan my meals, I end up way undereating.

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