= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
"I'll have a beer", the first one says. "I'll have two beers", says the second. "Three beers, please", says the third.
The bartender says, "you guys owe me a twelfth of a beer."
I don't get this one.
LW Meetup in Nuremberg (Germany)
Hi everyone,
we just reached the staggering number of four interested parties to meetup in Nuremberg. If anyone else is curious just mail me. We are so far working out the time. So no specific plans, just a get to know.
Martin
In response to
Lifestyle interventions to increase longevity
This is good stuff!
One addition I would make to your "sleep" section: between 5% and 10% of Americans have moderate or severe sleep apnea, mostly undiagnosed. Untreated sleep apnea more than doubles mortality through a combination of cardiac problems, stroke, and maybe a cancer-promoting effect as well. There are well-known effective treatments for sleep apnea and it is kind of dumb not to get them.
The main symptoms of sleep apnea are excessive snoring, and feeling very tired during the day even if you slept a normal amount the night before. It is most common in obese and older people but sometimes happens in normal-weight and younger people as well. If you think you might have this condition, probably your highest-priority longevity intervention (after quitting smoking, if you do that) is to go to your doctor and get it checked out.
I've got it :-) Actually I read about it before, but delayed going to the doctors for a few years. Afterwards it took about 6month of preliminary testing till I got the appointment in the sleep lab - since it is not an emergency situation. But afterwards the CPAP helped me right away. Its ridiculously effective. (Around the same time I started using f.lux to dim the brigtness of the monitor which is a good idea anyway (redshift for linux), and later got an eye mask to keep lights out.) From the self help group I got some material for the practical questions. And read many sad stories of those who need decades to figure it out. Not all doctors know about sleep apnea. But numbers are rising. One danger ignored is professional drivers who cause accidents by being tired. Might account for 7% of the total traffic accidents. But eitherway if you have it treatment is there. The published papers I read (mostly metastudies) usually deal with compliance rates in combination with some other factor. Medical compliance is stupidly low, many people don't use their CPAP even if it works. But I saw no other treatment options that were seriously explored. A nice feature is that CPAP is purely external, so no changes in your body, no operations and no big problems if you forget it occasionally.
To correct the symptom list above: snoring is a common signal, but not all snoring is from APNEA. You can have it checked out, if its a problem. The mean part is the daytime fatigue, which others will usually assume is due to a lazy lifestyle, partying to long or such. It takes a while to make the leap from daytime fatigue - despite extensive sleeping to an actual problem in the sleep.
And one plus point: you look and sound a bit like Darth Vader while sleeping :-)
CPAP (auto-adjusting pressure) didn't work on me. What else is there?
Did you go to a Sleeplap? They are supposed to fit it, have a pile of different masks to choose from. As far as I know cpap is the way to go with APNEA.
In response to
Less Wrong Product & Service Recommendations
Switching to the Dvorak keyboard cured my RSI.
if you're German check out Neo-layout.org. Its much more awesome. For English speakers try Colemak. For all others check if there are optimized layouts for your language.
Hopefully someone does an adaption of the NEO principles into other languages at some point. Its not that difficult to get into it.
In response to
New Year's Prediction Thread (2012)
my predictions: at the end of the year 2012
self (*)
I'll log more than 1460 work hours in my logging tool for the year:70%
I can accurately describe myself as a hard worker. 60%
I weight below 100kg (220 pound) end of year: 30%
I'll get the big scale project one of my teams was applying for: 20%
I'll severely improve in the art that shall not be named: 60%
I finish university:60%
I still am involved in my goal club: 75%
I will have experienced credit card fraud: 5%
I will still follow my current diet regime (no alcohol, reduced sugar, no cola): 90%
I'll start a business project from my backlog: 40%
I'll still use NEO and F.LUX: 98 %
I'll revisit and score this prediction in the first week of 2013: 95%
I'll rejoin Toastmasters: 70%
(*) predicting self related things is a bit weird, since I could influence it based on the amount I bet on it
LW
I'll gain a new super important insights: 10%
There are 10 or more MOR updates:97%
They will be really awesome:60%
world:
the EURO will still exist: 95%
there will be steps undertaken to remove the EURO: 7%
Greece got another bailout: 30%
the GRG Table E will have less than 100 cases over the whole year: 80% (this include retroactively validated entries)
the current 4 entries with an age over 114 will all be dead:65%
and for calender mystics: the number of cases born <1.1.1900 will drop below 10: 70%
the world will not end in 2012: 99,99999%
people will find new scary date in the future: 87%
the US or GB will take steps to increase metrification:3%
Germany:
the FDP (german liberal/libertarians) will be gone: 5%
the FDP will become unimportant:60%
Germany will have a new president: 70%
trueisms:
some major catastrophe happens in the world:95%
a major political scandal: 99%
earthquakes in Japan: 100%
Obama wins:60%
if Ron Paul wins, he will not succeed in cutting spending:80%
people will complain, but actually be fine:90%
I will have forgotten to write in some prediction I thought about during the last week:90%
And now the scoring:
self
I'll log more than 1460 work hours in my logging tool for the year:70%
No, just 612,5 == 42% of the planned minimum.
I can accurately describe myself as a hard worker. 60%
Not quite there yet.
I weight below 100kg (220 pound) end of year: 30%
No.
I'll get the big scale project one of my teams was applying for: 20%
No.
I'll severely improve in the art that shall not be named: 60%
No.
I finish university:60%
No.
I still am involved in my goal club: 75%
Yes.
I will have experienced credit card fraud: 5%
No.
I will still follow my current diet regime (no alcohol, reduced sugar, no cola): 90%
Yes.
I'll start a business project from my backlog: 40%
No.
I'll still use NEO and F.LUX: 98 %
Yes.
I'll revisit and score this prediction in the first week of 2013: 95%
Yes.
I'll rejoin Toastmasters: 70% No.
LW I'll gain a new super important insights: 10%
Probably. Difficult to score.
There are 10 or more MOR updates:97%
Yes, but that was close.
They will be really awesome:60%
Yes.
world: the EURO will still exist: 95%
Yes
there will be steps undertaken to remove the EURO: 7%
No.
Greece got another bailout: 30%
Kind of. Hard to score.
the GRG Table E will have less than 100 cases over the whole year: 80% (this include retroactively validated entries)
Yes (61 atm)
the current 4 entries with an age over 114 will all be dead:65%
Yes.
and for calender mystics: the number of cases born <1.1.1900 will drop below 10: 70%
No (15 atm)
the world will not end in 2012: 99,99999%
Yes
people will find new scary date in the future: 87%
Hard to score, probably true.
the US or GB will take steps to increase metrification:3%
No.
Germany: the FDP (german liberal/libertarians) will be gone: 5%
No.
the FDP will become unimportant:60%
To difficult to score yet.
Germany will have a new president: 70% Yes. trueisms: some major catastrophe happens in the world:95%
Yes.
a major political scandal: 99%
Yes.
earthquakes in Japan: 100%
Yes.
Obama wins:60%
Yes.
if Ron Paul wins, he will not succeed in cutting spending:80%
Not applicable. (Also probably wrong)
people will complain, but actually be fine:90%
Yes.
I will have forgotten to write in some prediction I thought about during the last week:90%
No.
I am miscalibrated with the edgier numbers!
In response to
comment
by
on
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 18, chapter 87
It's just fanfic terms: "shipping wars" are people who argued over, say, Harry/Hermione vs. Ron/Hermione, and "OT3" in that case would have been Harry/Hermione/Ron. (The original acronym was OTP=One True Pairing.)
In response to
comment
by
on
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 18, chapter 87
Ok thats rofl worthy. I got the OTP with google, but didnt make the connection to the fanfiction usage of shipping. My guess was a reference to Vanderbuilt and similar guys at see.
In response to
comment
by
on
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 18, chapter 87
I just got that right now.
In response to
comment
by
on
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 18, chapter 87
I don't get it. How about a hint for non American Readers?
In response to
Meetup : Munich Meetup, October 28th
I only saw the anouncement today which is a bit to late. Generally I am interested in meetups and currently live in Nuremberg.
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No comments yet? Well. I find it difficult to put into words how awesome the weekend was. (Sometimes things really do live up to the hype.) 80+ extremely friendly, open and curious people got together to talk about almost everything. The amount of topics covered was super surprising as was the style. I didn't notice any status posing :-). Besides the interesting lectures (a big wave to all the effective altruists) and the impromptu talking we got to excercise social stuff and talk to/play with very nice plushies. I still need some time to process everything, but it was awesome and I look forward to the next (or any similar) event.