Je suis Charlie

-20 [deleted] 15 January 2015 08:27AM

After the terrorist attacks at Charlie Hebdo, conspiracy theories quickly arose about who was behind the attacks.
People who are critical to the west easily swallow such theories while pro-vest people just as easily find them ridiculous.

I guess we can agree that the most rational response would be to enter a state of aporia until sufficient evidence is at hand.

Yet very few people do so. People are guided by their previous understanding of the world, when judging new information. It sounds like a fine Bayesian approach for getting through life, but for real scientific knowledge, we can't rely on *prior* reasonings (even though these might involve Bayesian reasoning). Real science works by investigating evidence.

So, how do we characterise the human tendency to jump to conclusions that have simply been supplied by their sense of normativity. Is their a previously described bias that covers this case?

How To Lose 100 Karma In 6 Hours -- What Just Happened

-31 waitingforgodel 10 December 2010 08:27AM
As with all good posts, we begin with a hypothetical:
Imagine that, in the country you are in, a law is passed saying that if you drive your car without your seat belt on, you will be fined $100.
Here's the question: Is this blackmail? Is this terrorism?
Certainly it's a zero-sum interaction (at least in the short term). You either have to endure the inconvenience of putting on a seat belt, or risk the chance of a $100 fine.
You may also want to consider that cooperating with the seat belt fine may also cause lawmakers to believe that you'll also follow future laws.

If that one seems too obvious, here's another: A law is passed establishing a $500 fine for pirating an album on the internet.
Does this count as blackmail? does this count as terrorism?

What if, instead of passing a law, the music companies declare that they will sue you for $500 every time you pirate an album?
Is it blackmail yet? terrorism? Will complying teach the music companies that throwing their weight around works?

Enough with the hypothetical, this one's real: The moderator of one of your favorite online forums declares that if you post things he feels are dangerous to read, he will censor them. He may or may not tell you when he does this. If you post such things repeatedly, you will be banned.
Does this count as blackmail? Does this count as terrorism? Should we not comply with him to prevent similar future abuses of power?

Two months ago, I found a third option to the comply/revolt dilemma: turn the force back on the forceful.
Imagine this: you're the moderator of an online forum and care primarily about one thing: reducing existential risks. One day, one of your form members vows to ensure that censoring posts will cause a small increase in existential risks.
Does this count as blackmail? Does this count as terrorism? Would you not comply to prevent similar future abuses of power?


(Please pause here if you're feeling emotional -- what follows is important, and deserves a cool head)


It is my opinion that none of these are blackmail.
Blackmail is fundamentally a single shot game.
Laws and rules, are about the structure of the world's payoffs, and changing them to incentivize behavior.
Now it's fair to say that there are just laws, and there are unjust laws... and perhaps we should refuse to follow unjust laws... but to call a law blackmail or terrorism seems incorrect.

Here's what happened:
  • 7 weeks ago, I precommitted that censoring a post or comment on LessWrong would cause a 0.0001% increase in existential risk.
  • Earlier today, Yudkowsky censored a post on less wrong
  • 20 minutes later, existential risks increased 0.0001% (to the best of my estimation).

This will continue for the foreseeable future. I'm not happy about it either. Basically I think the sanest way to think about the situation is to assume that Yudkowsky's "delete" link also causes a 0.0001% increase in existential risk, and hope that he uses it appropriately.
He doesn't feel this way. He feels that the only correct answer here is to ignore the 0.0001% increase. We are at an impasse.

FAQ:
Q: Will you reconsider?
A: Sadly no. This situation is symmetric -- just as I am not immune to Yudkowsky's laws (censorship on LW if I talk about "dangerous" ideas), he is not immune to my laws.

Q: How can you be sure that a post was censored rather than deleted by the owner?
A: This is sometimes hard, and sometimes easy. In general I will err on the side of caution.

Q: How can you be sure that you haven't missed a deleted comment?
A: I use, and am improving, an automated solution.

Q: What is the nature of the existential risk increase?
A: Emails. (Yes, emails). Maybe some phone calls.
There is a simple law that I believe makes intuitive sense to the conservative right. A law that will be easy for them to endorse. This law would be disastrous for the relative chance of our first AI being a FAI vs a UFAI. Every time EY decides to take a 0.0001% step, an email or phone call will be made to raise awareness about this law.

Q: Is there any way for me to gain access to the censored content?
A: I am working on a website that will update in real time as posts are deleted from LessWrong. Stay tuned!

Q: Will you still post here under waitingforgodel
A: Yes, but less. Replying to 100+ comments is very time consuming, and I have several projects in dire need of attention.

Thank you very much for your time and understanding,
-wfg

Edit: This post is describing what happened, not why. For a discussion about why I feel that the precommitment will result in an existential risk savings, please see the "precommitment" thread, where it is talked about extensively.

A Rational Approach to Fashion

19 lionhearted 10 October 2011 06:53PM

Related to: Humans are not automatically strategic, Rationalists should win

Fashion isn't prioritized in many hyper-analytical circles. Many in these communities write it off as frill and unnecessary. They say they "just dress comfortably" and leave it at that.

To me, that seems like a huge blind spot. It misses a fundamental point -

A piece of clothing is fundamentally a tool.

Definitions are important so everyone is on the same page. I feel like Wikipedia's first sentence on "tool" accurately describes it -

A tool is a device that can be used to produce an item or achieve a task, but that is not consumed in the process.

Clothing clearly fits that definition of a tool.

Appropriately chosen clothing can keep you from freezing in the winter, from getting sunburnt in the summer, and can keep you dry in a rainstorm.

It can also help you achieve things involving other people. I think it's fair to draw a distinction between "clothing" and "fashion" based on whether your objectives involve interpersonal skills. If you're wearing clothing in relation to the environment and without other people, that's using clothing as a tool.

But clothing clearly can affect other people's opinions of you, willingness to accept your arguments, willing to hire or contract you, even their desire to associate with you. All of that is changed by clothing - or more specifically, your "fashion."

While most rationalists would happily and quickly plan out the best hiking boots to wear to not get blisters on a hike, or research the best shoes for bicycling or swimsuit for swimming, anecdotally many seem hesitant or even hostile to the idea of using fashion as a tool to achieve their objectives.

That's possibly a mistake.

The thing fashion can do best and most fundamentally is affect a person's initial first impression of you. Fashion is less important if you're in a context where you're guaranteed to get to know someone over a longer period of time, and is more important if you're going to get filtered quickly.

I propose that the most rational usage of fashion is this -

1. Ask yourself what your goals are in the situation you're about to go into.

2. Ask yourself what first impression would help you reach your goals.

3. Pick out and wear clothing that helps communicate that first impression.

The process is important. In isolation, there's no "good fashion" - it depends on your objectives.

In some circles, people more or less won't care how you're dressed. But even then, there's likely some clothing that will perform better than others. If you can afford the time or money to find clothing to fit your objectives, then there's no reason not to utilize this advantage.

I say "time or money" because you can deploy either - if money isn't an issue, there's stores where the majority of things look good, and the people there are professionals who will spend time giving you good feedback. Any high end department store like Saks Fifth Avenue, Bloomingdales, or a high end tailor fits this category.

Alternatively, you can deploy time. To do that, survey the people that most effectively communicate the first impression you want to convey. Take actual notes and look for common trends. Then, go find pieces that look similar. You won't be perfect right away, but like any other skill, with practice you'll rapidly improve. Incidentally, the marginal cost to produce clothing is incredibly cheap, so most fashion lines over-produce clothing and have to liquidate it at super-discount sale prices periodically. There tends to be a major "Summer Sale" and "Winter Sale" once per year that have high end clothing that 70% to 90% off, making the cost comprable to the mid-tier.

There's also "Sample Sales" where over-produced items are liquidated or when a designer wants to see the buying public's reaction to their new pieces. Again, ultra-high-end clothing can be purchased at discount rates at these environments. You can get basically any semi-standard piece of high end clothing for not very much money if you put in the time. My strategy in the past has been to wait until finding a great opportunity like that, and then buying 1-2 years worth of clothing in one swoop. It doesn't take much supplementing after that.

It takes very little cognitive energy to begin this process. Next time you see someone who strikes a very good impression, stop and analyze a little bit. Note what they're wearing. If you want to strike that same first impression, go get something comprable. Your fashion will be working for you at that point, and your interpersonal dealings will become easier.