Matt_Simpson

So You Think You're a Bayesian? The Natural Mode of Probabilistic Reasoning

Related to: The Conjunction Fallacy, Conjunction Controversy The heuristics and biases research program in psychology has discovered many different ways that humans fail to reason correctly under uncertainty. In experiment after experiment, they show that we use heuristics to approximate probabilities rather than making the appropriate calculation, and that these heuristics are systematically biased. However, a tweak in the experiment protocols seems to remove the biases altogether and shed doubt on whether we are actually using heuristics. Instead, it appears that the errors are simply an artifact of how our brains internally store information about uncertainty. Theoretical considerations support this view. EDIT: The view presented here is controversial in the heuristics and biases literature; see Unnamed's comment on this post below. EDIT 2: The author no longer holds the views presented in this post. See this comment. A common example of the failure of humans to reason correctly under uncertainty is the conjunction fallacy. Consider the following question: > Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. > > What is the probability that Linda is: > > (a) a bank teller > > (b) a bank teller and active in the feminist movement In a replication by Gigerenzer, 91% of subjects rank (b) as more probable than (a), saying that it is more likely that Linda is active in the feminist movement AND a bank teller than that Linda is simply a bank teller (1993). The conjunction rule of probability states that the probability of two things being true is less than or equal to the probability of one of those things being true. Formally, P(A & B) ≤ P(A). So this experiment shows that people violate the conjunction rule, and thus fail to reason correctly under uncertainty. The representative heuri

66Jul 14, 2010

Matt_Simpson

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[Link] Is the Endowment Effect Real?

Under fairly weak assumptions, the most a standard rational economic agent is willing to pay for an item they don't own (WTP) and the least they're willing to accept in exchange for that item if they already own it (WTA) should be identical. In experiments with humans, psychologists and economists...

Feb 26, 201314

The Logic of the Hypothesis Test: A Steel Man

Related to: Beyond Bayesians and Frequentists Update: This comment by Cyan clearly explains the mistake I made - I forgot that the ordering of the hypothesis space is important is necessary for hypothesis testing to work. I'm not entirely convinced that NHST can't be recast in some "thin" theory of...

Feb 21, 20139

File Under "Keep Your Identity Small"

We know politics makes us stupid, but now there's evidence (pdf) that politics makes us less likely to consider things from another's point of view. From the abstract: > Replicating prior research, we found that participants who were outside during winter overestimated the extent to which other people were bothered...

Apr 5, 201221

Track Your Happiness

Track your happiness using your iphone: > For thousands of years, people have been trying to understand the causes of happiness. What is it that makes people happy? Yet it wasn’t until very recently that science has turned its attention to this issue. > > Track Your Happiness.org is a...

May 4, 20119

Ames, IA LW meetup Sunday May 8 (First Iowa Meetup!) 2pm

Date: Sunday May 8, 2:00pm until at least 4:00pm. Venue: Cafe Milo in Ames, IA (~ 1 hour from Des Moines, ~ 3 hours from Iowa City) This weekend finals are finally over at Iowa State University, so why not celebrate by holding the first LW meetup in Iowa? Apparently...

May 2, 20116

Economics of Bitcoin

I haven't read/listened to them, but I thought these might be interesting to the local bitcoin users: Eli Dourado (GMU econ PhD candidate) on the economics of cryptocurrency. Econtalk podcast - Russ Roberts (GMU econ prof) with Gavin Andresen, Principal of the BitCoin Virtual Currency Project on, Virtual Currency. Roberts'...

Apr 4, 201110

Science reveals how not to choke under pressure

Found via reddit, excerpt: > Choking happens when we let anxious thoughts distract us or when we start trying to consciously control motor skills best left on autopilot. ... > > In her new book, Choke: What the Secrets of the Brain Reveal About Success and Failure at Work and...

Dec 9, 201013

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So You Think You're a Bayesian? The Natural Mode of Probabilistic Reasoning

File Under "Keep Your Identity Small"

Creating The Simple Math of Everything

The Obesity Myth

Matt_Simpson

[Link] Is the Endowment Effect Real?

The Logic of the Hypothesis Test: A Steel Man

File Under "Keep Your Identity Small"

Track Your Happiness

Ames, IA LW meetup Sunday May 8 (First Iowa Meetup!) 2pm

Economics of Bitcoin

Science reveals how not to choke under pressure

So You Think You're a Bayesian? The Natural Mode of Probabilistic Reasoning

File Under "Keep Your Identity Small"

Creating The Simple Math of Everything

The Obesity Myth

[Link] Is the Endowment Effect Real?

The Logic of the Hypothesis Test: A Steel Man

File Under "Keep Your Identity Small"

Track Your Happiness

Ames, IA LW meetup Sunday May 8 (First Iowa Meetup!) 2pm

Economics of Bitcoin

Science reveals how not to choke under pressure