Comment author: buybuydandavis 07 April 2013 03:54:38AM *  3 points [-]

I ignore evidence when the evidence doesn't relate to the point of contention.

Phil criticized a bit of paper, noting that the statistical analysis involved did not justify the conclusion made. The conclusion did not follow the analysis. Phil was correct in that criticism.

It's just not an argument against Phil that someone might take some of the data in the paper and do a Bayesian analysis that the authors did not do.

Comment author: Matt_Simpson 07 April 2013 04:31:48AM 3 points [-]

It's just not an argument against Phil that someone might take some of the data in the paper and do a Bayesian analysis that the authors did not do.

That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that what the authors did do IS evidence against the hypothesis in question. Evidence against a homogenous response is evidence against any response (it makes some response less likely)

Comment author: buybuydandavis 07 April 2013 03:01:06AM *  0 points [-]

You claim that medical researchers are doing logical inference incorrectly. But they are in fact doing statistical inference and arguing inductively.

Jaynes argued that probability theory was an extension of logic, so this seems like quite a quibbling point.

Statistical inference and inductive arguments belong in a Bayesian framework. You are making a straw man by translating them into a deductive framework.

They do, but did the paper he dealt with write within a Bayesian framework? I didn't read it, but it sounded like standard "let's test a null hypothesis" fare.

No. Mattes and Gittelman's finding is stronger than your rephrasing—your rephrasing omits evidence useful for Bayesian reasoners.

Which is not a valid objection to Phil's analysis if Mattes and Gittelman weren't doing a Bayesian analysis in the first place. Were they? I'll apologize for not checking myself if I'm wrong, but right now my priors are extremely low so I don't see value in expending the effort to verify.

Their paper should be seen in a Bayesian framework

If they did their calculations in a Bayesian framework. Did they?

Comment author: Matt_Simpson 07 April 2013 03:46:29AM 4 points [-]

hey do, but did the paper he dealt with write within a Bayesian framework? I didn't read it, but it sounded like standard "let's test a null hypothesis" fare.

You don't just ignore evidence because someone used a hypothesis test instead of your favorite Bayesian method. P(null | p value) != P(null)

Comment author: stcredzero 07 May 2009 03:10:54PM *  13 points [-]

Also, penning in sheep is a lot easier than penning in wolves.

In fact, this reminds me of the magnetic traps (Penning traps?) that are used to cool a couple of hundred atoms down to near-absolute zero. There is a potential barrier that keeps most of the atoms inside. Occasionally, one atom is jostled enough to gain enough energy to escape. This has the effect of carrying energy away from the group, cooling it as a whole.

I think the analogy is compelling. An activism that works off of a discontented fringe only serves to strengthen the current regime. To get real change, one needs to energize the populace as a whole, and often the only forces capable of such widespread influence have economic and deep cultural foundations. Both Gandhi and MLK knew this.

I think the Chinese government also knows this, but I am not sure they can exploit this in the long term.

Comment author: Matt_Simpson 29 March 2013 01:39:55PM 3 points [-]
Comment author: ArisKatsaris 04 March 2013 10:36:41PM 0 points [-]

Online Videos Thread

Comment author: Matt_Simpson 22 March 2013 02:56:38AM *  0 points [-]

My advisor, Jarad Niemi, has posted a bunch of lectures on Bayesian statistics to youtube, most of them short and all pretty good IMHO. The lectures are made for Stat 544, a course at Iowa State University. They assume a decent familiarity with probability theory - most students in the course have seen most of chapters 1-5 of Casella and Berger in detail - and some knowlege of R.

Comment author: [deleted] 21 March 2013 01:27:57AM *  5 points [-]

Columbus is interested in hosting a mega-meetup in the fall, but I'd like to get some data on how many people would be interested in coming (If no one outside of Ohio is interested, we'll probably downgrade the event to an OHLW meetup, rather than a mega-meetup). I posted a list of approximate drive-times below. If you are interested, please let me know. A probability estimate of how likely you are to be able to make it would also be useful. Thanks!

Dayton, OH- 1:00
Cincinnati, OH- 1:30
Cleveland, OH- 2:10
Toledo, OH- 2:20
Indianapolis, IN- 2:40
Fort Wayne, IN- 2:45
Pittsburgh, PA- 2:50
Lexington, KY- 3:00
Louisville, KY- 3:10
Detroit, MI- 3:15

Grand Rapids, MI- 4:50
Buffalo, MI- 5:00
Knoxville, TN- 5:15
Chicago, IL- 5:20
Nashville, TN- 5:30
Springfield, IL- 5:50
Rochester, NY- 6:00
Washington DC- 6:15
St Louis, MO- 6:20
Toronto, Canada- 6:30
Charlotte, NC- 6:40
Milwuakee, WI- 6:50
Philadelphia, PA- 7:15

NYC- 8:00

Comment author: Matt_Simpson 21 March 2013 02:43:22AM *  0 points [-]

If it is indeed a megameetup, I'd like to attend (from Ames, IA so in the 7 hour range).

EDIT: FWIW I'm also willing to carpool with anyone (nearly) passing through or (nearly) on the way.

Comment author: wedrifid 13 March 2013 07:21:49PM 14 points [-]

A non-neurotypical person.

That isn't a phrase I prefer to see used as (what amounts to) an insult.

Comment author: Matt_Simpson 13 March 2013 08:57:35PM 1 point [-]

I agree, but I'm not sure it was intended as an insult. The effect in (some) readers is similar though, so maybe I'm splitting hairs.

Comment author: twanvl 07 March 2013 11:42:59PM 13 points [-]

the best way to not do it.

This sounds too punchliney. What do you actually mean? What part of not doing it needs figuring out? How to avoid it? What to do instead? Something else entirely?

Comment author: Matt_Simpson 08 March 2013 02:10:47AM 1 point [-]

The best way not to do something is to do the best thing you could be doing instead in the best way.

Comment author: latanius 07 March 2013 08:37:05PM 5 points [-]

As for this thread: wouldn't upvoting commens that you think are useful for someone else but not for you be actually an indirect case of other-optmizing?

Comment author: Matt_Simpson 08 March 2013 02:06:54AM 1 point [-]

I think so.

Comment author: Nornagest 07 March 2013 08:11:49PM *  11 points [-]

I think that's much closer (and upvoted), but you don't need to invoke such an extreme example to demonstrate it; you just need to notice that offense thresholds are different in different contexts. Treating your boss as if she's your drinking buddy is likely to provoke offense. So's treating your drinking buddy as if he's a child. Yet you're generally safe treating boss as boss, buddy as buddy, and child as child -- in other words, giving people the status they contextually expect.

Comment author: Matt_Simpson 08 March 2013 01:56:24AM 0 points [-]

I agree

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 07 March 2013 05:11:13PM 1 point [-]

I think that depends on the current number of upvotes the comment has. I'll upvote comments with no upvotes that I personally found useful by way of thanks.

Comment author: Matt_Simpson 07 March 2013 05:18:11PM 0 points [-]

Sure, I'm just saying that personal usefulness shouldn't be the only reason you upvote.

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