This research doesn't imply the non-existence of a Great Filter (contra this post's title). If we take the Paper's own estimates, there will be approximately 10^20 terrestrial planets in the Universe's history. Given that they estimate the Earth preceded 92% of these, there currently exist approximately 10^19 terrestrial planets, any one of which might have evolved intelligent life. And yet, we remain unvisited and saturated in the Great Silence. Thus, there is almost certainly a Great Filter.
Surely "unvisited" is insignificant. There's no current science suggesting any means of faster-than-light travel. So, if you assume that extraterrestrial life would have lifespans grossly similar to terrestrial lifespans, we ought to remain unvisited.
"Saturated in the Great Silence" seems like a far more significant point.
What do you do with a surprise journal?
I read the article found at:
I started writing a few things down. I realize that the point of the surprise journal is to give your brain a little reward for noticing something. So, the actual keeping of the journal is surplus. You could write it down and then throw it away.
But that feels intuitively like an open loop. Is anyone doing anything with a surprise journal after writing it down?
I've not read the Rifkin book, so it may have a response to the criticism I'm about to make of your rendition of the key idea.
"The margin" is a concept that is set in a temporal context. That is, the margin is about a decision being made. Historically, economists think primarily of the short term margin: changed to production that can occur without changes in capital (and so, prototypically only using variations in inputs such as labor, energy, and raw materials). This is where marginal cost can fall to zero.
But economists also recognize two further changes, which can be classified as medium and long term margins, but which is which often depends on the structure of the industry. One type of change is the application of additional capital. Typically, this is the medium term margin. The second is competitors entering or exiting the market. This is usually the long-term margin. At this margin, marginal costs never ever fall to zero.
Under a condition of zero short-term marginal costs driving prices below the long-term average cost, competitors will exit the market or differentiate themselves. In the former situation, you eventually arrive at a duopoly or monopoly. In the latter situation, you end up with monopolistic competition (which I think is a fairer description of most consumer goods, for example).
Thus, I think the idea of prices generally falling to zero because short-term marginal costs fall to zero is misplaced. To put it simply, marginal costs are not total costs.
The place the rubber hits the road on this problem is that companies who would receive payment under this approach will not sign up to a system that causes their holdings of cash in the system to decay, if there are other alternatives.
Most companies that today accept bitcoin don't hold bitcoin for a while but immediately transfer it into dollar. It's not really a problem for a person who doesn't plan holding currency for a while.
On the other hand the aspect that you don't want to hold the currency for longer periods of time might reduce speculators in the market and produce a currency with less price fluctuation then bitcoin.
A couple of points that I think are relevant:
First, dividing users of bitcoins into people who spend it quickly and those who hold it obscures the more fundamental truth that all bitcoin users hold them for some period of time.
Second, all businesses have cash holdings. Larger ones have entire treasury departments devoted to doing nothing more than getting a few more basis points on that cash by active management in interest bearing accounts.
The combine to make me very skeptical that people will accept a currency that depreciates in value and is not already accepted. Imagine the interest rate that they would have to obtain just to offset the decay fee. If prospective users know that they can't get such an interest rate, why would they ever sign up for a system that guarantees them a loss?
This seems to me that it significantly raises transaction costs without significantly creating benefits. The value paid in cash in our real economy today will be equal to the sum of the cash payment plus the net present value of risk-discounted future payments in your model. That means that there is zero benefit to the parties involved, but introduces a transfer of risk, and increases the complexity of the transaction.
The place the rubber hits the road on this problem is that companies who would receive payment under this approach will not sign up to a system that causes their holdings of cash in the system to decay, if there are other alternatives. You can compare this to inflation in, say, US dollar holdings. The difference is that the US dollar is already widely accepted. It does not have a problem convincing people to accept it. Your system will.
Historically, one of the features that made any commodity more likely to become a currency was that it would not decay. For example, precious metals typically won out over comparably divisible commodities like grain because metals don't rot after a year or so. A currency that rots doesn't seem like a winner.
Seconded, this was my reason for suggesting one a day. I believe there are over 800 articles, so even at one a day that'll take a few years! [Edit: Correction, it seems there will be about 300 articles - see link below.]
Once a day was pretty much the original pace as well.
I was originally for a pace of two per week, just knowing my own work schedule. But if there are truly going to be 800 articles represented in the book, then one a day is the only workable solution. Do we know that the book will be broken out into something like 800 articles?
I think there's something in business that is similar to the hero-sidekick dichotomy you suggest. In business, I see people who are great individual contributors, but their career path "upwards" takes them into management, at which they suck. The notion that being good at managing doers is "higher" than doing has a parallel in supposed superiority of heroes to sidekicks. It's not a promotion to go from sidekick to hero: it might very well be an awkward misalignment.
Is there something underlying both of these? It might be something about leader-follower and the prestige that comes with being a leader.
I am a maybe. How will I know who you are?
I don't know if it's hard wired, but I think pretty much everyone in our family was told an unusual circumstance concerning their birth (you had a prehensile tail, you were found on the doorstep, you were bought from Babies R Us, etc) which was maintained as long as possible. Play in general is certainly hard-wired, so why not play with the truth?
The macaroni story has an interesting side consideration though - what are you planning on telling her about where meat comes from? (Assuming she eats meat).
I told mine as soon as I thought she'd comprehend the meaning of the words, wanting to see what the pseudo-tabula-rasa would think about the idea of eating animals, but I guess she had figured it out due to it being called "fish" and "chicken" and we don't really eat other meats. She did seem mildly discomforted when confronted with it but not enough to stop eating - pretty much how adults react.
On the poor little macaronis, I think she visualized them having their legs pulled off while still alive. She had already discovered the joy that is bacon, and I think she knew more than Homer Simpson about its tasty source.
(Bacon is my one-word rebuttal to all claims of vegetarian superiority. Also my one-word attempt to convert all orthodox jews and muslims. I'm always surprised it doesn't work 100% of the time.)
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My advice is probably better suited for a liberal arts major (compared to a STEM major, say).
Learn more than you know now about the jobs that your field of study might support -- especially salary and life style. This seems like a big blind spot to a lot of students.
Go to professors' office hours. They are fascinating people and know way more than you do. (P.S. I'm not a professor.)
Audit classes that you wish you had time to take.
Actually do the homework before the class in which it is due. (This is less of a problem for STEM majors than in humanities and many liberal arts; in the latter, homework is often just reading.)
Do the optional reading, even if it really is optional.
Take extensive notes on the reading. In class, focus on listening. Good lecturers are synthesizing the facts you should already have consumed. Your notes from class should be much briefer. You should be able to study for tests strictly from your notes, without needing the book, except as an occasional reference.
Sit near the front of class.
If you have to choose between one semester of microeconomics and one semester of macroeconomics, take micro.
Take at least two statistics classes.
Leave your video games at your parents' house.
Learn an exercise routine that you can stick to for the rest of your life.