I'd primarily be interested in seeing a more detailed examination of altruistic careers outside the nonprofit world and comparative advantage. I also would be interested in seeing someone write up an examination of the risks of "value/lifestyle drift," which strike me as closely related.

I'm not at all convinced, though, in the conclusion that earning to give is reasonably likely to have less impact.

I agree that I didn't make a tight argument: what my post offers is a bunch of counterarguments against the "earning to give" position, together with an expression of my intuitions, supported with limited empirical data. I do have a fair amount (~80%) of confidence in my intuition, but it's difficult to explicate why.

Part of the reason I might feel this way is I've been earning-to-give at a trading firm, partly because I'm unsure of my value-add through more direct means. I'm fascinated by the idea of a more direct career, but I'm skeptical of the magnitude of my potential value-add, especially with my donations from trading as a baseline for comparison. I'd be interested to learn more about the types of things you think I should be considering (can provide more information in this vein as of course it will be different depending on my skillset).

Given that you've proven yourself at a trading firm and not in other contexts, your (expected) comparative advantage may be in earning to give.

I'd be happy to discuss these things more: you can email me at jsinick (at) gmail (dot) com.

Thanks for the article, it's a position I've been wanting to see taken.

I think you've made a good defensive case that people should stay squishy in their conviction about earning-to-give being the way to go. I'm convinced about some of the overextensions of the earning-to-give argument, and the value of making further adjustments based on considerations like counterexamples, illusory superiority bias, etc.

I'm not at all convinced, though, in the conclusion that earning to give is reasonably likely to have less impact. There seems to be a jump from "here are reasons to be cautious/skeptical of earning-to-give as optimal" to the bolded thesis. There are lots of good reasons to be cautious/skeptical of going the direct route, as well. I'd be curious to read your analysis of what you think the most compelling reasons to be skeptical of going the direct route, and why they ultimately aren't strong enough in your mind (perhaps for another post).

Part of the reason I might feel this way is I've been earning-to-give at a trading firm, partly because I'm unsure of my value-add through more direct means. I'm fascinated by the idea of a more direct career, but I'm skeptical of the magnitude of my potential value-add, especially with my donations from trading as a baseline for comparison. I'd be interested to learn more about the types of things you think I should be considering (can provide more information in this vein as of course it will be different depending on my skillset).