Comment author: MichaelBishop 28 March 2012 04:11:14PM *  3 points [-]

It seems someone should link up "Why and How to Debate Charitably." I can't find a copy of the original because the author has taken it down. Here is a discussion of it on LW.. Here are my bulleted summary quotes. ADDED: Original essay I've just learned, and am very saddened to hear, that the author, Chris, committed suicide some time ago.

Comment author: gwern 03 September 2011 06:46:29PM *  10 points [-]

This is related, but not the research talked about. The Terman Project apparently found that the very highest IQ cohort had many more patents than the lower cohorts, but this did not show up as massively increased lifetime income.

Compare the bottom right IQ graph with SMPY results which show the impact of ability (SAT-M measured before age 13) on publication and patent rates. Ability in the SMPY graph varies between 99th and 99.99th percentile in quintiles Q1-Q5. The variation in IQ between the bottom and top deciles of the Terman study covers a similar range. The Terman super-smarties (i.e., +4 SD) only earned slightly more (say, 15-20% over a lifetime) than the ordinary smarties (i.e., +2.5 SD), but the probability of earning a patent (SMPY) went up by about 4x over the corresponding ability range.

http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2011/04/earnings-effects-of-personality.html

Unless we want to assume those 4x extra patents were extremely worthless, or that the less smart groups were generating positive externalities in some other mechanism, this would seem to imply that the smartest were not capturing anywhere near the value they were creating - and hence were generating significant positive externalities.

EDIT: Jones 2011 argues much the same thing - economic returns to IQ are so low because so much of it is being lost to positive externalities.

Comment author: MichaelBishop 28 March 2012 03:44:11PM *  1 point [-]

On its own, I don't consider this strong evidence for the greater productivity of the IQ elite. If they were contributions to open-source projects, that would be one thing. But people doing work that generates patents which don't lead to higher income - that raises some questions for me. Is it possible that extremely high IQ is associated with a tendency to become "addicted" to a game like patenting? Added: I think Gwern and I agree more than many people might think reading this comment.

Comment author: MarkusRamikin 21 December 2011 10:03:01AM 4 points [-]

Excusemewhat, the community, as in LW? We're a cryonics advocacy group now?

Comment author: MichaelBishop 28 March 2012 02:50:35PM 0 points [-]

I used cryonics as example because komponisto used it before me. I intended my question to be more general. "If you're trying to market LW, or ideas commonly discussed here, then which celebrities and opinion-leaders should you focus on?"

Comment author: wedrifid 02 November 2011 05:16:01PM *  2 points [-]

Convincing Dawkins would be a great strategy for promoting cryonics... who else should the community focus on convincing?

Friends and family. They are the ones I care about most. (And, most likely, those that others in the community care about most too. At least the friends part. Family is less certain but more significant.)

Comment author: MichaelBishop 02 November 2011 08:28:06PM *  2 points [-]

Sure, convince those you love. I was asking who you should try to convince if your goal is convincing someone who will themselves convince a lot of other people.

Comment author: komponisto 20 February 2010 04:41:55PM *  13 points [-]

Dawkins is a very high-quality thinker, as his scientific writings reveal. The fact that he has also published "elementary" rationalist material in no way takes away from this.

He's way, way far above the level represented by the participants in his namesake forum.

(I'd give even odds that EY could persuade him to sign up for cryonics in an hour or less.)

Comment author: MichaelBishop 02 November 2011 04:29:36PM 0 points [-]

Convincing Dawkins would be a great strategy for promoting cryonics... who else should the community focus on convincing?

Comment author: MichaelBishop 10 October 2011 08:05:12PM 0 points [-]

broken link on "usually correlate"?

Comment author: MichaelBishop 22 September 2011 11:42:21PM 2 points [-]

Project Follow Through, the study most frequently cited as proving the benefits of Direct Instruction is far from perfect. Neither classrooms nor schools, were randomly assigned to curricula. Its not clear how students ended up in treatment vs. comparison groups but it probably happened differently in different communities. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Follow_Through#Analytical_methods for a bunch of info and more references.

Software for Critical Thinking, Prof. Geoff Cumming

3 MichaelBishop 30 March 2011 05:13PM

Prof. Geoff Cumming has done some interesting work.  Of particular relevance to the LW community, he has studied software for enhancing critical thinking.

 

My past research: I worked on Computer tools for enhancing critical thinking, with Tim van Gelder. We studied argument mapping, and Tim’s wonderful Reason!Able software for critical thinking. This has proved very effective in university and school classrooms as the basis for effective enhancement of critical thinking. In an ARC-funded project we evaluated the software and Tim’s related educational materials. We found evidence that a one semester critical thinking course, based on Reason!Able, gives a very substantial increase—considerably greater than reported in previous evaluations of critical thinking courses—in performance on standardised tests.

Tim’s software has been further developed by his company Austhink Software, and is now available commercially as Rationale and bCisive: both are fabulous! http://www.austhink.org/ http://bcisive.austhink.com/

Comment author: MichaelBishop 20 October 2010 08:19:04PM 2 points [-]

Claims that the extent to which will power is exhaustible depends on one's belief about it's exhaustibility: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/10/101014144318.htm

In response to Experts vs. parents
Comment author: Daniel_Burfoot 29 September 2010 09:03:55PM 7 points [-]

a meta-analysis of 15 studies

As a statistical aside, I see no strong reason to believe a meta-analysis should be any more convincing than a single, large, well-designed study. In fact, by mixing the results of rigorous studies in with the unrigorous ones, you're probably just diluting the signal to noise ratio.

Comment author: MichaelBishop 02 October 2010 04:55:09PM 2 points [-]

We should feel good about the fact that some biases of different research designs will cancel each other out, while bad about our inability to weight each study optimally.

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